Key Takeaways
CME Group (CME): Q4 2025 earnings due February 4, 2026; consensus expects adjusted EPS $2.75 and revenue ~$1.6B.
Trading Activity: CME’s full-year 2025 average daily volume (ADV) hit 28.1M contracts, up 6% YoY, signaling robust derivatives demand.
S&P Global (SPGI): Q4 2025 earnings due February 10, 2026; Q3 posted EPS $4.73 and 9% revenue growth, driven by Ratings, Indices, and Market Intelligence.
Business Models: CME thrives on transaction-based volume and clearing fees, while SPGI benefits from subscription-driven, recurring revenue.
Investor Focus: CME’s 2026 fee guidance, volume outlook, and market volatility resilience versus SPGI’s premium margins and subscription growth.
Why This Comparison Matters
CME and SPGI operate at different intersections of financial services:
CME captures volatility-driven profits from derivatives trading, clearing, and market data.
SPGI leverages high-margin analytics, ratings, and indices, delivering predictable, subscription-backed cash flows.
The upcoming earnings releases provide insight into volume-driven growth versus stable, margin-rich subscription revenue, aiding investors in positioning for rate volatility, trading demand, and data-driven financial services.
CME Earnings Focus
CME’s Q4 and full-year 2025 results (pre-market, February 4) are expected to show:
Adjusted EPS: $2.75 (+9.1% YoY from $2.52)
Revenue: $1.6–$1.64B (+~7%)
Key Drivers:
Average daily volume (ADV): Q4 record of 27.4M contracts
Clearing and transaction fees: ~$1.3B
Market data revenue growth and 2026 fee guidance
Volume Highlights: Metals +34% and energy contracts showing volatility-fueled growth; interest rate contracts also key.
Historical Context: CME has beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters, though stock reactions are often muted, reflecting market anticipation.
SPGI Context and Earnings Relevance
SPGI’s Q4 earnings on February 10, 2026, follow a strong Q3 showing:
Revenue: ~$3.89B (+9%)
Adjusted EPS: $4.73 (vs $4.40 consensus)
Growth Drivers: Ratings and Market Intelligence; adjusted operating margins ~52%
Investor Takeaways: SPGI’s subscription-heavy model contrasts CME’s volatility-driven revenue, providing predictable cash flows and high margins.
Insights:
CME offers a volume-driven, high-beta play on derivatives markets, benefiting from volatility spikes.
SPGI provides premium valuation with steady recurring revenue, insulating it from short-term market swings.
Risks: CME faces competition and regulatory scrutiny; SPGI is sensitive to deal flow and economic cycles.
Tickeron AI Perspective
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models lean toward CME pre-earnings, highlighting:
Record volumes and consistent EPS beats (4/4 quarters)
Undervalued P/E (~26x) relative to premium SPGI (~40x)
Short-term probabilistic edge in volatility-driven trading, assuming positive guidance
SPGI remains attractive for margin stability and subscription growth, but CME’s derivatives exposure and guidance leverage provide potential for near-term outperformance.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on August 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In of 105 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
CME moved above its 50-day moving average on July 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 267 cases where CME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CME moved out of overbought territory on August 04, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CME declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CME’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.729) is normal, around the industry mean (5.815). P/E Ratio (23.323) is within average values for comparable stocks, (26.690). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.821) is also within normal values, averaging (3.218). CME has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.041) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). CME's P/S Ratio (14.663) is slightly higher than the industry average of (8.451).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an operator of securities and commodity exchanges
Industry FinancialPublishingServices