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Feb 04, 2026
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CME vs SPGI Stock Comparison: Q4 Earnings Preview as Trading Volumes Meet Data Demand

CME vs SPGI Stock Comparison: Q4 Earnings Preview as Trading Volumes Meet Data Demand

Key Takeaways

  • CME Group (CME): Q4 2025 earnings due February 4, 2026; consensus expects adjusted EPS $2.75 and revenue ~$1.6B.

  • Trading Activity: CME’s full-year 2025 average daily volume (ADV) hit 28.1M contracts, up 6% YoY, signaling robust derivatives demand.

  • S&P Global (SPGI): Q4 2025 earnings due February 10, 2026; Q3 posted EPS $4.73 and 9% revenue growth, driven by Ratings, Indices, and Market Intelligence.

  • Business Models: CME thrives on transaction-based volume and clearing fees, while SPGI benefits from subscription-driven, recurring revenue.

  • Investor Focus: CME’s 2026 fee guidance, volume outlook, and market volatility resilience versus SPGI’s premium margins and subscription growth.

Why This Comparison Matters

CME and SPGI operate at different intersections of financial services:

  • CME captures volatility-driven profits from derivatives trading, clearing, and market data.

  • SPGI leverages high-margin analytics, ratings, and indices, delivering predictable, subscription-backed cash flows.

The upcoming earnings releases provide insight into volume-driven growth versus stable, margin-rich subscription revenue, aiding investors in positioning for rate volatility, trading demand, and data-driven financial services.

CME Earnings Focus

CME’s Q4 and full-year 2025 results (pre-market, February 4) are expected to show:

  • Adjusted EPS: $2.75 (+9.1% YoY from $2.52)

  • Revenue: $1.6–$1.64B (+~7%)

  • Key Drivers:

    • Average daily volume (ADV): Q4 record of 27.4M contracts

    • Clearing and transaction fees: ~$1.3B

    • Market data revenue growth and 2026 fee guidance

  • Volume Highlights: Metals +34% and energy contracts showing volatility-fueled growth; interest rate contracts also key.

  • Historical Context: CME has beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters, though stock reactions are often muted, reflecting market anticipation.

SPGI Context and Earnings Relevance

SPGI’s Q4 earnings on February 10, 2026, follow a strong Q3 showing:

  • Revenue: ~$3.89B (+9%)

  • Adjusted EPS: $4.73 (vs $4.40 consensus)

  • Growth Drivers: Ratings and Market Intelligence; adjusted operating margins ~52%

  • Investor Takeaways: SPGI’s subscription-heavy model contrasts CME’s volatility-driven revenue, providing predictable cash flows and high margins.

Insights:

  • CME offers a volume-driven, high-beta play on derivatives markets, benefiting from volatility spikes.

  • SPGI provides premium valuation with steady recurring revenue, insulating it from short-term market swings.

  • Risks: CME faces competition and regulatory scrutiny; SPGI is sensitive to deal flow and economic cycles.

Tickeron AI Perspective

Tickeron AI Verdict

Tickeron’s AI models lean toward CME pre-earnings, highlighting:

  • Record volumes and consistent EPS beats (4/4 quarters)

  • Undervalued P/E (~26x) relative to premium SPGI (~40x)

  • Short-term probabilistic edge in volatility-driven trading, assuming positive guidance

SPGI remains attractive for margin stability and subscription growth, but CME’s derivatives exposure and guidance leverage provide potential for near-term outperformance.

Disclaimers and Limitations

Related Ticker: CME, SPGI

Contributor

Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.


CME in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026

The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In 53 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CME just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where CME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.

CME moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 50-day moving average for CME moved above the 200-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a +3.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in 169 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 137 of 261 cases where CME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for CME moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 43%.

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.123) is normal, around the industry mean (4.189). P/E Ratio (25.659) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.505). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.578) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. CME's P/S Ratio (14.535) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are CME Group (NASDAQ:CME).

Industry description

The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Financial Publishing/Services Industry is 46.54B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.27M to 140.08B. SPGI holds the highest valuation in this group at 140.08B. The lowest valued company is BTOG at 1.27M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Financial Publishing/Services Industry was 4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 12%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. ICE experienced the highest price growth at 10%, while COIN experienced the biggest fall at -10%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Financial Publishing/Services Industry was -7%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -13% and the average quarterly volume growth was -21%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 80
P/E Growth Rating: 49
Price Growth Rating: 31
SMR Rating: 52
Profit Risk Rating: 71
Seasonality Score: 25 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an operator of securities and commodity exchanges

Industry FinancialPublishingServices

Industry
Investment Banks Or Brokers
Address
20 South Wacker Drive
Phone
+1 312 930-1000
Employees
3875
Web
https://www.cmegroup.com
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