Key Takeaways
CME Group (CME): Q4 2025 earnings due February 4, 2026; consensus expects adjusted EPS $2.75 and revenue ~$1.6B.
Trading Activity: CME’s full-year 2025 average daily volume (ADV) hit 28.1M contracts, up 6% YoY, signaling robust derivatives demand.
S&P Global (SPGI): Q4 2025 earnings due February 10, 2026; Q3 posted EPS $4.73 and 9% revenue growth, driven by Ratings, Indices, and Market Intelligence.
Business Models: CME thrives on transaction-based volume and clearing fees, while SPGI benefits from subscription-driven, recurring revenue.
Investor Focus: CME’s 2026 fee guidance, volume outlook, and market volatility resilience versus SPGI’s premium margins and subscription growth.
Why This Comparison Matters
CME and SPGI operate at different intersections of financial services:
CME captures volatility-driven profits from derivatives trading, clearing, and market data.
SPGI leverages high-margin analytics, ratings, and indices, delivering predictable, subscription-backed cash flows.
The upcoming earnings releases provide insight into volume-driven growth versus stable, margin-rich subscription revenue, aiding investors in positioning for rate volatility, trading demand, and data-driven financial services.
CME Earnings Focus
CME’s Q4 and full-year 2025 results (pre-market, February 4) are expected to show:
Adjusted EPS: $2.75 (+9.1% YoY from $2.52)
Revenue: $1.6–$1.64B (+~7%)
Key Drivers:
Average daily volume (ADV): Q4 record of 27.4M contracts
Clearing and transaction fees: ~$1.3B
Market data revenue growth and 2026 fee guidance
Volume Highlights: Metals +34% and energy contracts showing volatility-fueled growth; interest rate contracts also key.
Historical Context: CME has beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters, though stock reactions are often muted, reflecting market anticipation.
SPGI Context and Earnings Relevance
SPGI’s Q4 earnings on February 10, 2026, follow a strong Q3 showing:
Revenue: ~$3.89B (+9%)
Adjusted EPS: $4.73 (vs $4.40 consensus)
Growth Drivers: Ratings and Market Intelligence; adjusted operating margins ~52%
Investor Takeaways: SPGI’s subscription-heavy model contrasts CME’s volatility-driven revenue, providing predictable cash flows and high margins.
Insights:
CME offers a volume-driven, high-beta play on derivatives markets, benefiting from volatility spikes.
SPGI provides premium valuation with steady recurring revenue, insulating it from short-term market swings.
Risks: CME faces competition and regulatory scrutiny; SPGI is sensitive to deal flow and economic cycles.
Tickeron AI Perspective
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models lean toward CME pre-earnings, highlighting:
Record volumes and consistent EPS beats (4/4 quarters)
Undervalued P/E (~26x) relative to premium SPGI (~40x)
Short-term probabilistic edge in volatility-driven trading, assuming positive guidance
SPGI remains attractive for margin stability and subscription growth, but CME’s derivatives exposure and guidance leverage provide potential for near-term outperformance.
Disclaimers and Limitations
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CME turned positive on January 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where CME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 16, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In of 105 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
CME moved above its 50-day moving average on January 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on January 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 249 cases where CME Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 69 cases where CME's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CME declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.792) is normal, around the industry mean (5.310). P/E Ratio (27.157) is within average values for comparable stocks, (28.571). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (5.658) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.786). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. CME's P/S Ratio (16.750) is slightly higher than the industry average of (9.068).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an operator of securities and commodity exchanges
Industry FinancialPublishingServices