Key Takeaways
CME Group (CME): Q4 2025 earnings due February 4, 2026; consensus expects adjusted EPS $2.75 and revenue ~$1.6B.
Trading Activity: CME’s full-year 2025 average daily volume (ADV) hit 28.1M contracts, up 6% YoY, signaling robust derivatives demand.
S&P Global (SPGI): Q4 2025 earnings due February 10, 2026; Q3 posted EPS $4.73 and 9% revenue growth, driven by Ratings, Indices, and Market Intelligence.
Business Models: CME thrives on transaction-based volume and clearing fees, while SPGI benefits from subscription-driven, recurring revenue.
Investor Focus: CME’s 2026 fee guidance, volume outlook, and market volatility resilience versus SPGI’s premium margins and subscription growth.
Why This Comparison Matters
CME and SPGI operate at different intersections of financial services:
CME captures volatility-driven profits from derivatives trading, clearing, and market data.
SPGI leverages high-margin analytics, ratings, and indices, delivering predictable, subscription-backed cash flows.
The upcoming earnings releases provide insight into volume-driven growth versus stable, margin-rich subscription revenue, aiding investors in positioning for rate volatility, trading demand, and data-driven financial services.
CME Earnings Focus
CME’s Q4 and full-year 2025 results (pre-market, February 4) are expected to show:
Adjusted EPS: $2.75 (+9.1% YoY from $2.52)
Revenue: $1.6–$1.64B (+~7%)
Key Drivers:
Average daily volume (ADV): Q4 record of 27.4M contracts
Clearing and transaction fees: ~$1.3B
Market data revenue growth and 2026 fee guidance
Volume Highlights: Metals +34% and energy contracts showing volatility-fueled growth; interest rate contracts also key.
Historical Context: CME has beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters, though stock reactions are often muted, reflecting market anticipation.
SPGI Context and Earnings Relevance
SPGI’s Q4 earnings on February 10, 2026, follow a strong Q3 showing:
Revenue: ~$3.89B (+9%)
Adjusted EPS: $4.73 (vs $4.40 consensus)
Growth Drivers: Ratings and Market Intelligence; adjusted operating margins ~52%
Investor Takeaways: SPGI’s subscription-heavy model contrasts CME’s volatility-driven revenue, providing predictable cash flows and high margins.
Insights:
CME offers a volume-driven, high-beta play on derivatives markets, benefiting from volatility spikes.
SPGI provides premium valuation with steady recurring revenue, insulating it from short-term market swings.
Risks: CME faces competition and regulatory scrutiny; SPGI is sensitive to deal flow and economic cycles.
Tickeron AI Perspective
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models lean toward CME pre-earnings, highlighting:
Record volumes and consistent EPS beats (4/4 quarters)
Undervalued P/E (~26x) relative to premium SPGI (~40x)
Short-term probabilistic edge in volatility-driven trading, assuming positive guidance
SPGI remains attractive for margin stability and subscription growth, but CME’s derivatives exposure and guidance leverage provide potential for near-term outperformance.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for CME moved out of overbought territory on September 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 21 of the 40 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CME turned negative on September 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
CME moved below its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CME crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CME declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Aroon Indicator for CME entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 29 of 57 cases where CME's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CME as a result. In 64 of 106 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CME advanced for three days, in 176 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
CME may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.569) is normal, around the industry mean (-5.093). P/E Ratio (22.327) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.252). CME's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.578) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.780). CME has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.043) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). CME's P/S Ratio (14.535) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.166).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an operator of securities and commodity exchanges
Industry FinancialPublishingServices