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GRBK or LEN or TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. Lennar (LEN) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Green Brick Partners (GRBK), Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL) are all U.S. homebuilders facing similar sector headwinds from interest rates and housing affordability, yet differ in scale, margins, and recent momentum.
- GRBK reported Q1 2026 results with strong homebuilding gross margins near 29% and EPS of $1.39, supporting its position as a higher-margin regional player amid recent market activity.
- LEN delivered Q1 2026 net earnings of $229 million with modest new order growth and continued share repurchases, positioning it as a large-cap operator with steady operational scale.
- TOL posted Q2 2026 fiscal results with EPS of $2.72 beating estimates, though year-over-year revenue and net income declined, reflecting broader pressures on luxury-focused builders.
- Relative performance shows GRBK and LEN with stronger year-to-date returns near 11% compared to TOL’s approximately 2%, highlighting varying sensitivity to market sentiment in recent weeks.
- Valuation and risk profiles vary, with smaller GRBK offering potential margin advantages while larger LEN and TOL provide greater liquidity and diversification across markets.
Introduction
Homebuilding stocks such as Green Brick Partners (GRBK), Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL) offer investors exposure to the U.S. residential construction sector. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and market positioning for traders and investors seeking to understand relative strengths in a environment influenced by mortgage rates, consumer demand, and economic indicators. The analysis focuses on observable financial metrics and sector dynamics relevant to both institutional and individual market participants evaluating cyclical exposure.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) operates as a homebuilder primarily in high-growth markets, emphasizing land acquisition and development alongside home construction. In recent market activity, the stock has shown resilience with year-to-date returns around 10.6%, supported by Q1 2026 results featuring earnings per diluted share of $1.39 and net income of $60.9 million. Strong homebuilding gross margins near 29% contributed to positive sentiment, though revenue faced minor shortfalls against some expectations. Broader sector factors including interest rate sensitivity have influenced trading patterns in recent weeks, with the shares reflecting volatility typical of smaller-capitalization builders.
LEN Overview and Recent Performance
Lennar (LEN) ranks among the largest U.S. homebuilders, with operations spanning multiple states and a focus on entry-level and move-up homes. Recent performance includes year-to-date returns near 11.1%, bolstered by Q1 2026 net earnings of $229 million and a 1% year-over-year increase in new orders. The company continued share repurchases and maintains guidance for approximately 85,000 home deliveries in 2026. Market sentiment in recent weeks has reflected steady operational execution amid housing demand fluctuations, with the stock demonstrating relative stability compared to more volatile peers.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers (TOL) specializes in luxury homes and maintains a premium positioning within the sector. Recent results for the fiscal second quarter ended April 2026 showed earnings per share of $2.72, exceeding estimates, alongside revenue of $2.53 billion. Year-over-year declines in revenue and net income were noted, yet the company maintained full-year guidance and raised its quarterly dividend. Year-to-date returns stand near 2.4%, with trading in recent weeks influenced by post-earnings reactions and sector-wide affordability challenges affecting higher-priced segments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Green Brick Partners (GRBK), Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL) share exposure to the homebuilding sector but contrast in scale and focus. GRBK operates regionally with emphasis on margins and land development, offering higher gross margins but greater sensitivity to local market conditions. LEN provides large-cap scale with broad geographic reach and consistent order growth, supporting liquidity advantages. TOL targets luxury segments, which can deliver premium pricing yet face amplified impacts from interest rate shifts and affordability pressures. Recent momentum favors GRBK and LEN on year-to-date returns, while TOL’s earnings beat was tempered by year-over-year declines. Risk factors include GRBK’s smaller size and volatility versus the more diversified but slower-reacting profiles of LEN and TOL. Valuation sensitivity appears higher for growth-oriented names like GRBK in a rising-rate environment, with market sentiment reflecting sector rotation toward established operators.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in recent weeks, margin stability from Q1 2026 results, and relative positioning within the homebuilding group, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to Green Brick Partners (GRBK) for its demonstrated margin resilience and performance alignment with sector recovery signals. This assessment remains probabilistic and draws solely from reported metrics rather than forward projections.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileLEN’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LEN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LEN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- LEN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +2.14% price change this week, while LEN (@Homebuilding) price change was -2.71% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated +2.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
LEN is expected to report earnings on Sep 17, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.34% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| GRBK | LEN | TOL | |
| Capitalization | 3.22B | 21.4B | 14.1B |
| EBITDA | 393M | 2.41B | 1.7B |
| Gain YTD | 17.459 | -14.197 | 12.767 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.84 | 13.71 | 11.54 |
| Revenue | 2.08B | 33.2B | 11B |
| Total Cash | 145M | 2.39B | 1.11B |
| Total Debt | 282M | 5.26B | 2.92B |
GRBK | LEN | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 24 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 88 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 94 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 79 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 58 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 20 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (68) and is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (88). This means that GRBK's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (40) and is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (94). This means that GRBK's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (55) and is in the same range as LEN (79). This means that GRBK's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (43) and is in the same range as LEN (58). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to GRBK’s and similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
LEN's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (24) and is in the same range as TOL (25). This means that LEN's stock grew similarly to GRBK’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | LEN | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | 2 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 76% | 15 days ago 65% | 8 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 64% | 9 days ago 67% | 16 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 71% |
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | -1.35% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| TMHC - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | +0.03% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 85% Closely correlated | -3.10% | ||
| LEN - GRBK | 85% Closely correlated | -2.55% | ||
More | ||||
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.