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GRBK or MTH or TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. Meritage Homes (MTH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three are U.S. homebuilders, but they target different buyers: GRBK (Green Brick Partners) focuses on infill and master-planned communities in Texas, Georgia, and Florida; MTH (Meritage Homes) builds affordable entry-level and first move-up homes across the Sun Belt; and TOL (Toll Brothers) serves the luxury market.
- GRBK currently posts the strongest gross margins of the group (near 30%) but carries the highest beta and trades near the low end of its 52-week range.
- MTH faces the steepest near-term earnings pressure, with revenue and orders declining, yet offers the highest dividend yield of the three.
- TOL is the largest by market capitalization and has shown the most resilient order growth, supported by an affluent buyer base.
- Relative performance and market positioning diverge sharply, making each name suited to a different investor profile.
Introduction
Homebuilding stocks have moved in a broad range in recent months as elevated mortgage rates and soft consumer confidence weigh on demand, even as a structural housing shortage supports the long-term outlook. Comparing GRBK, MTH, and TOL offers a useful lens on three distinct strategies within the same sector: entry-level value, regional land-driven growth, and luxury pricing power. This stock comparison is relevant to traders assessing relative momentum and to longer-horizon investors evaluating margin quality, balance-sheet strength, and sensitivity to interest rates. The sections below examine each company's business context, recent performance, and current market positioning.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, headquartered in Plano, Texas, is a diversified homebuilding and land development company concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Its differentiated model centers on self-developed master-planned communities and infill-adjacent locations, which historically support industry-leading gross margins. In its most recent quarterly results, GRBK reported homebuilding gross margin near 29.8% and a 19% year-over-year increase in net new home orders, while its mortgage subsidiary contributed growing financial-services income.
Despite these operating strengths, the stock has traded defensively in recent weeks, hovering near the lower end of its 52-week range and below its 20-day moving average. With no dividend and a beta above the peer group, GRBK tends to amplify sector moves in both directions. Sentiment has been shaped by a modest decline in average selling prices and a shrinking backlog, offset by a fortress-like balance sheet with low net debt-to-capital and continued share repurchases.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, is the fifth-largest public U.S. homebuilder and specializes in energy-efficient, entry-level and first move-up homes across roughly a dozen Sun Belt and Southeastern states. Its "quick-close" model emphasizes move-in-ready inventory and fast build cycles, which supports rapid backlog conversion but leaves margins sensitive to buyer incentives.
In recent quarters, MTH has reported declining revenue and earnings, with orders and absorption rates softening amid affordability pressures. Management has responded with cost discipline, a record community count, and a pivot back toward a more balanced mix of entry-level and first move-up buyers. The stock has lagged in relative performance, and several sell-side analysts have trimmed price targets while maintaining neutral or buy ratings. MTH offsets some of this pressure with the highest dividend yield of the three and an active buyback program.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, is the nation's leading luxury homebuilder, with an average delivered home price around $1 million and a buyer base that skews toward affluent, less rate-sensitive households. This positioning has supported resilient order growth even as broader housing demand softened, and the company raised its full-year delivery guidance following stronger-than-expected results.
Recent market activity has nonetheless pressured the stock, which trades below its 52-week high and near the midpoint of its annual range. Margin compression from inventory impairments and higher selling costs has weighed on earnings, though TOL continues to return capital through buybacks and a modest dividend. Analysts have cited its pricing power and low forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple as differentiating factors, even as some regions, including parts of the Pacific Northwest and Texas, show weaker demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast among the three is buyer segment. MTH competes on affordability and speed, which makes it highly sensitive to mortgage-rate movements and incentive costs. TOL competes on brand and pricing power at the luxury end, providing more insulated demand but exposure to wealth effects. GRBK sits between, with a land-driven model that produces superior margins but a more concentrated geographic footprint.
On valuation, all three trade at single-digit to low-double-digit P/E multiples, reflecting a cyclical discount across the sector. GRBK offers the best profitability metrics but the highest volatility. TOL offers scale, a conservative balance sheet, and steady order growth. MTH offers income and a deep value tilt but carries the most visible near-term earnings risk. Risk factors common to all include mortgage-rate volatility, input-cost inflation, and softening consumer confidence.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, order momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would most likely favor TOL among the three. Its order growth has been the most consistent through the recent demand slowdown, its affluent buyer base provides a measure of insulation from mortgage-rate sensitivity, and its valuation remains below historical norms. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: if trend signals for GRBK stabilize and its momentum turns higher, its superior margins could quickly make it the more attractive candidate. MTH would likely require clearer evidence of demand stabilization and margin recovery before signaling a durable trend reversal.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
GRBK in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 07, 2026
GRBK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 30 cases where GRBK's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GRBK as a result. In 57 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +0.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GRBK advanced for three days, in 227 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.437) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (9.673) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
MTH's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for MTH moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 55 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for MTH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.827) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (13.290) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MTH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.511) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (11.192) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
GRBK | MTH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 82 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 46 Fair valued | 44 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 72 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 80 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 70 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 8 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (44) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (46) and is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that MTH's stock grew similarly to GRBK’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (42) and is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (72). This means that GRBK's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58) and is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that GRBK's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (70) and is in the same range as MTH (70). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to GRBK’s and similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (26) and is in the same range as GRBK (26). This means that MTH's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | MTH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 74% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% | 23 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 6 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 71% | 4 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MTH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а +5.31% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was +8.48% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated +4.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.05% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | -0.80% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | +0.88% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -0.84% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -0.12% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 82% Closely correlated | +1.86% | ||
More | ||||
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.