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LEN or NVR or TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lennar (LEN) vs. NVR (NVR) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Three very different business models: Lennar (LEN) is a volume-oriented, entry-level builder; NVR (NVR) is an asset-light, build-to-order operator; and Toll Brothers (TOL) focuses on the luxury segment.
- Diverging earnings trends: LEN and NVR recently missed consensus estimates, while TOL has beaten expectations and raised full-year guidance.
- Rate sensitivity varies sharply: TOL's affluent, often cash-heavy buyers are comparatively less exposed to mortgage rates than LEN's first-time buyers.
- Relative performance has separated: LEN trades near a 52-week low and is down sharply year to date, while TOL has held up better and carries a broad Buy consensus.
- Valuation trade-offs: TOL screens inexpensive on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis, whereas NVR retains a premium multiple built on its high return on invested capital (ROIC).
Introduction
Homebuilders sit at the intersection of interest rates, affordability, and consumer confidence, making them a useful lens on the broader U.S. economy. This stock comparison examines three prominent but structurally different names: Lennar Corporation (LEN), NVR, Inc. (NVR), and Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL). For traders weighing momentum and market positioning, and for investors evaluating business quality and valuation sensitivity, the contrast among an entry-level volume builder, a capital-light compounder, and a luxury specialist is instructive. Recent market activity has highlighted how each company's customer base and operating model respond differently to the same mortgage-rate and resale-inventory pressures.
LEN Overview and Recent Performance
Lennar Corporation (LEN) is one of the nation's largest homebuilders, focused primarily on entry-level and move-up buyers across communities nationwide, with a large presence in Texas and Florida. Its strategy emphasizes steady production volume and an asset-light land model, with the vast majority of homesites controlled through third-party options rather than owned outright. In recent weeks, LEN reported fiscal third-quarter results that fell short of expectations, with earnings per share (EPS) and revenue below consensus and new orders down roughly 9% year over year. Management cited 30-year mortgage rates near 7% and rising resale competition as key headwinds. The stock has traded near a 52-week low, reflecting a substantial year-to-date decline. Sentiment has cooled as affordability constraints and softer order trends have weighed on the shares, even as the company maintains a strong balance sheet and continues share repurchases.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. (NVR) operates under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands, selling primarily to first-time and move-up buyers through a disciplined, build-to-order model. Its defining feature is a lot-purchase-agreement strategy that keeps raw land off the balance sheet, generating unusually high ROIC and a net-cash position that funds aggressive buybacks. In recent quarters, NVR reported year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS that missed analyst estimates, pressured by lower settlements, softer pricing, and higher lot costs, though new orders grew and cancellation rates improved. The stock remains down over the trailing year and trades at a premium forward P/E relative to many homebuilding peers. Market sentiment has been mixed, with sell-side ratings divided between those who value NVR's capital efficiency and those concerned that a full valuation offers limited cushion amid declining earnings expectations.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is the leading U.S. builder of luxury homes, serving a more affluent customer base with average delivered prices near or above $1 million. Because its buyers are less dependent on mortgage financing and more likely to purchase with cash, TOL carries comparatively lower rate sensitivity. In recent market activity, TOL has posted stronger relative performance: its most recent quarterly results beat expectations on both revenue and EPS, net signed contracts rose, and the company raised full-year delivery and margin guidance. Gross margins remain well above those of volume-oriented peers, even after some compression from inventory write-downs. Analysts have maintained a broadly positive stance, with recent coverage highlighting the stock's low forward P/E as a potential opportunity. The shares trade within a wide 52-week range and have outperformed LEN and NVR in recent months.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast among these three names is customer mix and its effect on rate sensitivity. LEN sells at the affordable end of the market, where a 7% mortgage sharply reduces qualifying buyers; this has translated into falling orders and a stock near its lows. NVR occupies the middle of the market with a build-to-order model and exceptional capital efficiency, but it has not been immune to margin pressure, and its premium multiple leaves less room for error. TOL targets affluent buyers whose wealth and cash-purchasing power dampen rate sensitivity, supporting resilient pricing and order growth even as incentives rise.
Growth drivers also differ. LEN leans on volume and operational efficiency, NVR on buybacks and ROIC, and TOL on pricing power and a luxury backlog. Risk factors are similarly distinct: LEN faces resale competition in Texas and Florida, NVR faces valuation risk and land-deposit exposure, and TOL faces wealth-effect sensitivity in a softening economy. From a sector-exposure and market-positioning standpoint, investors choosing among the three are effectively choosing between a rate-sensitive volume play, a premium-quality compounder, and a resilient luxury franchise.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TOL in the current environment. Toll Brothers has demonstrated the most consistent recent fundamentals—beating estimates, growing orders, and raising guidance—while its affluent buyer base provides a comparatively stable demand profile amid elevated mortgage rates. LEN's downtrend and NVR's premium valuation and declining earnings present weaker near-term setups. This is a probabilistic assessment grounded in momentum and relative strength rather than a definitive forecast, and market conditions could shift the ranking as rate and sentiment dynamics evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
LEN's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LEN turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where LEN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LEN as a result. In 54 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
LEN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LEN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
LEN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LEN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LEN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.941) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (13.237) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). LEN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.302) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.594) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LEN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
NVR's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for NVR moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 15 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 10 of the 15 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVR as a result. In 61 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVR just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
NVR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
NVR moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for NVR entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVR's P/B Ratio (4.802) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.669). P/E Ratio (15.052) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.909) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 64 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.524) is normal, around the industry mean (1.669). P/E Ratio (11.286) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.830). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TOL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
LEN | NVR | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 63 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 67 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 81 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 78 | 31 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 61 | 69 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 55 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVR's Valuation (67) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (69) and is in the same range as LEN (97). This means that NVR's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVR (81) and is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (100). This means that TOL's stock grew somewhat faster than NVR’s and somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (58) and is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (78). This means that NVR's stock grew similarly to TOL’s and somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (61) and is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that NVR's stock grew similarly to LEN’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (46) and is in the same range as NVR (55). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to LEN’s and similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| LEN | NVR | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | 22 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 55% | 5 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LEN’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NVR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- LEN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LEN’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LEN’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LEN (@Homebuilding) experienced а +8.70% price change this week, while NVR (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.86% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated +5.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +3.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.56%.
Reported Earning Dates
LEN is expected to report earnings on Dec 15, 2026.
NVR is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+3.99% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.