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RSG or WCN or WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Republic Services (RSG) vs. Waste Connections (WCN) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Republic Services (RSG), Waste Connections (WCN), and Waste Management (WM) operate in the defensive waste management sector, exhibiting lower volatility than the broader market with betas around 0.4.
- Recent market activity shows modest year-to-date returns for all three, trailing the S&P 500’s approximately 9.4% gain, with prices fluctuating in relatively narrow bands amid sector stability.
- Waste Connections (WCN) recently raised its full-year 2026 outlook following strong second-quarter results, while Waste Management (WM) reported solid cash flow growth and reaffirmed key guidance after its Q2 release.
- Republic Services (RSG) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 6, with investors monitoring volume trends and pricing dynamics.
- All three companies maintain consistent dividend programs, with yields ranging from approximately 0.8% to 1.2%, appealing to income-focused investors seeking defensive exposure.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs in scale, geographic reach, and growth catalysts within the same industry.
Introduction
Republic Services (RSG), Waste Connections (WCN), and Waste Management (WM) represent leading players in the North American waste management industry, offering essential collection, recycling, and disposal services with resilient demand characteristics. This comparison examines their recent stock behavior, business positioning, and relative performance in the current market environment, where defensive sectors have attracted attention amid broader economic uncertainty. Institutional and retail investors focused on stability, dividends, and sector-specific catalysts may find this analysis relevant for portfolio allocation decisions.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Services (RSG) provides environmental services including solid waste collection, recycling, and landfill operations across the United States and Canada. In recent weeks, the stock has traded in a narrow range near $210, reflecting steady but muted demand in a defensive sector. Year-to-date performance stands at approximately 0.22%, with the shares maintaining a low beta of 0.40 that underscores reduced sensitivity to market swings. Upcoming second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 6 represent a key near-term catalyst, as analysts focus on core pricing growth and volume trends following earlier quarterly results that demonstrated resilient customer retention.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Connections (WCN) delivers waste collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services primarily in North America, with an emphasis on integrated operations. Recent market activity shows the stock around $167, supported by second-quarter 2026 results that included revenue growth of 6.4% year-over-year and a subsequent upward revision to full-year guidance. Year-to-date returns approximate 4%, accompanied by a quarterly dividend declaration of $0.35 per share. The company’s scale and acquisition activity have contributed to stable positioning, with shares exhibiting defensive characteristics similar to peers in the sector.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management (WM) is the largest provider of waste management services in North America, encompassing collection, disposal, recycling, and renewable energy initiatives. Following its second-quarter 2026 earnings release on July 28, the stock has hovered near $226, with reported revenue growth of 4% year-over-year and notable increases in operating cash flow. Year-to-date performance approximates 3.97%, while the company reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA guidance despite a modest revenue outlook adjustment. Strong free cash flow generation and shareholder returns through dividends and repurchases have supported sentiment in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models across Republic Services (RSG), Waste Connections (WCN), and Waste Management (WM) share core elements of collection and disposal but differ in scale and emphasis. Waste Management (WM) holds the largest market capitalization and broadest footprint, while Waste Connections (WCN) focuses on regional density and acquisitions. Republic Services (RSG) emphasizes pricing discipline and environmental solutions. Recent momentum favors Waste Connections (WCN) following its outlook raise, contrasted with Republic Services (RSG)’s pre-earnings positioning. Risk factors include volume softness for all three, offset by pricing power and essential-service status. Sector exposure remains uniform, with valuation sensitivity tied to interest rates and commodity recycling prices. Market sentiment reflects defensive appeal, though relative performance varies with individual catalysts such as earnings timing and guidance updates.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including recent earnings momentum, cash flow strength, and guidance revisions, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to Waste Connections (WCN) for its demonstrated ability to exceed expectations and adjust outlook upward amid stable sector conditions. Republic Services (RSG) and Waste Management (WM) remain closely positioned due to consistent defensive attributes, though upcoming catalysts for Republic Services (RSG) and established cash returns at Waste Management (WM) warrant ongoing monitoring. This assessment reflects relative positioning rather than absolute forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RSG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileWCN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and WM’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- RSG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RSG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WCN’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and WM’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RSG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WCN’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
RSG (@Environmental Services) experienced а +1.90% price change this week, while WCN (@Environmental Services) price change was -0.19% , and WM (@Environmental Services) price fluctuated +0.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +9.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
RSG is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
WCN is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
WM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+9.36% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| RSG | WCN | WM | |
| Capitalization | 65.7B | 42B | 91B |
| EBITDA | 5.13B | 3.01B | 7.46B |
| Gain YTD | -0.239 | -3.925 | 5.101 |
| P/E Ratio | 30.39 | 40.27 | 59.96 |
| Revenue | 16.7B | 9.76B | 25.7B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | 557M |
| Total Debt | 14.1B | 9.61B | 23.4B |
RSG | WCN | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 12 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 37 Fair valued | 42 Fair valued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 49 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 63 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 56 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 93 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RSG's Valuation (37) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WM (39) and is in the same range as WCN (42). This means that RSG's stock grew similarly to WM’s and similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as RSG (25) and is in the same range as WCN (49). This means that WM's stock grew similarly to RSG’s and similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as RSG (49) and is in the same range as WCN (63). This means that WM's stock grew similarly to RSG’s and similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (56) and is in the same range as RSG (59). This means that WM's stock grew similarly to WCN’s and similarly to RSG’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RSG (66) and is significantly better than the same rating for WCN (93). This means that WM's stock grew somewhat faster than RSG’s and significantly faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
| RSG | WCN | WM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 28% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 36% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 36% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 6 days ago 46% | 16 days ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 38% | 4 days ago 46% | 4 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | N/A | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 46% |
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WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.