ABVX, MAZE, GME, CNM, PDD, CTAS, PAYX, JBS, KRMN, JEF, CMC, PONY, CCL, TMC | Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: March 23–27, 2026

Key Points

• GameStop (GME) reports Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 results on March 24 after the close; analysts expect EPS of ~$0.31–$0.37 and revenue of ~$1.47B — investors will be laser-focused on the Bitcoin treasury strategy and Ryan Cohen's M&A ambitions after three consecutive quarters of declining top-line sales.
• PDD Holdings (PDD) reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results on March 25 before the open; consensus EPS estimate is ~$2.99 on revenue near $16–$17B — the report will be scrutinized for signs of Temu's growth trajectory amid intensifying U.S. and EU regulatory headwinds.
• Cintas (CTAS) and Paychex (PAYX) both report on March 25, together serving as barometers for U.S. small business health and labor-market conditions; CTAS consensus is $1.23 EPS / $2.82B revenue and PAYX consensus is $1.67–$1.68 EPS / $1.78B revenue.
• Karman Holdings (KRMN) releases Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 results on March 25 after the close; the recently-IPO'd aerospace & defense supplier guided fiscal 2025 revenue of $470–$471M and adjusted EBITDA of $144.5–$144.9M, underscoring the U.S. defense spending supercycle thesis.
• Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) reports Q1 FY2026 results on March 25 after the close; analysts expect EPS of $0.89–$1.15 and revenue of ~$2.0B — providing an early read on Wall Street's M&A and underwriting momentum heading into mid-2026.
• Commercial Metals Company (CMC) reports Q2 FY2026 results on March 26 before the open; the steel manufacturer and recycler beat strongly last quarter and analysts now expect EPS of ~$1.28–$1.33 on revenue of ~$1.98–$2.10B.
• Carnival Corporation (CCL) reports Q1 FY2026 results on March 27 before the open; consensus calls for EPS of ~$0.17–$0.18 and revenue of ~$6.12B, with the cruise giant having guided full-year 2026 adjusted net income of ~$3.5B — a record.
• ABIVAX (ABVX) and Maze Therapeutics (MAZE) report on March 23 — both are clinical-stage biotechs where pipeline milestones dwarf quarterly financials; Abivax carries a potential €15B Eli Lilly acquisition rumor and pending Phase 3 maintenance data.
• Note on Metsera (MTSR): Pfizer completed its ~$7.0B acquisition of Metsera in November 2025, and the stock was delisted from NASDAQ at that time. No public earnings report is expected from MTSR this week.

Macro Backdrop: Why This Week's Earnings Matter

The week of March 23–27, 2026, arrives at a pivotal juncture for markets. After a turbulent stretch shaped by lingering tariff uncertainty, shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, and an uneven recovery in corporate capital spending, investors are eager for fresh evidence of where corporate America truly stands. This week's earnings slate is remarkable not for its size, but for its breadth: a pre-revenue deep-sea mining explorer, a Chinese e-commerce behemoth, a meme-stock icon undergoing a crypto metamorphosis, a defense-spending beneficiary just months after its IPO, and three business-services bellwethers all report within a five-day window.

Collectively, these companies touch infrastructure spending, global trade and tariff dynamics, U.S. labor markets, defense procurement, investment banking activity, steel and metals demand, and consumer leisure — making this week a genuine cross-sector mosaic of the global economy's current pulse. For investors, the reports offer both a backward-looking confirmation of Q4/Q1 execution and a forward-looking set of management signals about 2026 guidance, capital allocation, and strategic pivots.

Sector I: Biotechnology & Clinical-Stage Companies

Reporting: Monday, March 23 — ABIVAX (ABVX), Maze Therapeutics (MAZE)

For clinical-stage biotechs, quarterly financial results — predominantly comprised of R&D spending and net losses — are rarely the headline event. What moves these stocks are pipeline readouts, regulatory catalysts, and M&A speculation. Both companies reporting Monday fit this profile precisely, and both carry unusually high near-term catalyst potential.

ABIVAX Société Anonyme (ABVX)

ABIVAX is a Paris-based, Nasdaq-listed clinical-stage biotechnology company developing first-in-class RNA biogenesis modulators for chronic inflammatory diseases. Its lead asset, obefazimod (ABX464), is an oral once-daily miR-124 enhancer targeting ulcerative colitis (UC) — one of the largest and fastest-growing therapeutic markets in gastroenterology, with J.P. Morgan estimating the U.S. IBD market will exceed $25 billion by 2030.

The stock's ascent has been extraordinary: shares surged over 1,742% in the trailing twelve months following positive Phase 3 induction results in its ABTECT program. The dual Phase 3 trials demonstrated a placebo-adjusted remission rate of 19.3% after eight weeks of obefazimod induction therapy — data that earned Abivax recognition as the top-performing blue-chip stock in Europe for 2025. Obefazimod's differentiated mechanism and emerging anti-fibrotic evidence in Crohn's disease have attracted attention from pharma giants.

The most important near-term catalyst is not earnings, but M&A. As of this writing (March 20, 2026), shares surged roughly 30% after French newspaper La Lettre reported that Eli Lilly was preparing a €15 billion (~$17.5 billion) acquisition offer — nearly double ABIVAX's prior market capitalization. Neither ABIVAX nor Lilly has officially confirmed the talks, and France's Finance Ministry stated it has received no formal investment approval request. However, J.P. Morgan had already issued a note calling ABIVAX a "solid acquisition target" for Lilly given obefazimod's profile and scale.

On the clinical front, the company is anticipating topline Phase 3 maintenance data from the ABTECT-UC trial in late Q2 2026, which could set up a U.S. regulatory submission by late 2026 and a potential commercial launch in Q3 2027. The DSMB review in December 2025 found no new safety concerns, with over 80% of participants completing the 44-week maintenance study.

What to watch at the Q4 2025 report (March 23, before market open): Analysts expect a Q4 2025 loss of approximately ($2.24) per share on minimal revenue of ~$1.8 million — broadly in line with the clinical-stage model. Consensus for the full fiscal year points to approximately ($3.00) EPS, reflecting ongoing R&D investment. Investors should monitor management's commentary on the ABTECT timeline, any updates on the Lilly or broader M&A situation, and the company's cash runway (guided into Q4 2027). Wall Street currently rates the stock a consensus "Moderate Buy" with an average price target of $134.75.

Maze Therapeutics, Inc. (MAZE)

Maze Therapeutics is a South San Francisco-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on small-molecule precision medicines for kidney and metabolic diseases. Its two lead programs — MZE829 (for APOL1-mediated kidney disease, AMKD) and MZE782 (evaluated in phenylketonuria and chronic kidney disease) — represent a focused strategy targeting genetically-defined patient populations with high unmet needs.

Shares have been on a significant upswing: the stock gained 30.34% year-to-date as of mid-March 2026 and recently set a fresh 52-week high near $51. The catalyst driving that momentum is a pipeline event: topline proof-of-concept data from the Phase 2 HORIZON trial of MZE829 is expected by the end of Q1 2026 — making Monday's earnings call potentially coincident with (or immediately preceding) one of the most important binary events in the company's history. MZE829 targets patients with broad AMKD, including those with diabetic nephropathy and severe FSGS.

On MZE782, positive first-in-human Phase 1 data already established proof of mechanism, supporting two Phase 2 proof-of-concept trials (in PKU and CKD) planned to initiate in 2026. Mizuho initiated coverage of MAZE with an Outperform rating and a $97 price target, modeling approximately $8 billion in combined peak revenue for MZE829 and MZE782 at a 40% probability of success. Guggenheim also holds a Buy rating with a $58 price target following a recent price-target raise.

What to watch: Q4 2025 financials will again be secondary to pipeline news. The company ended Q3 2025 with a strong cash position of $383.9 million, providing a runway into 2028. The YTD net loss through September 2025 was $96.6 million. The company completed a $150 million oversubscribed private placement in September 2025, significantly bolstering its balance sheet. Investors should look for any signal on whether HORIZON topline data has been received or when it will be disclosed — this single event could be transformative for the stock.

Sector II: Retail & Consumer Discretionary

Reporting: Tuesday, March 24 — GameStop (GME)

GameStop Corp. (GME)

GameStop's Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 results arrive after the close on March 24 — and they will almost certainly be dissected less for what the numbers say about a shrinking specialty retailer and more for what CEO Ryan Cohen's capital allocation decisions say about the company's evolving identity.

The core retail story is unambiguous and unflattering. For Q3 fiscal 2025, GameStop posted net sales of $821 million — down 4.6% year-over-year and significantly below the ~$987 million analysts expected. Hardware revenues fell 12%, software plummeted 27%, and collectibles — now nearly one-third of total revenue — was the only growth segment. The company has closed hundreds of stores in recent years and has indicated plans to shutter a "significant number" of additional locations. For full-year fiscal 2025, the structural decline in physical gaming retail is expected to be reflected across all four quarters.

Yet the market's gaze has shifted decisively to the Bitcoin treasury strategy — the defining corporate narrative of the past twelve months. In May 2025, GameStop issued $1.3 billion in convertible notes and deployed $515.7 million to purchase 4,710 Bitcoin. As of Q3 fiscal 2025, those holdings were valued at approximately $519.4 million and total cash, equivalents, and marketable securities stood at a remarkable $8.8 billion. This balance sheet war chest, funded through aggressive equity and debt issuances, has transformed GameStop from a dying retailer into a corporation whose investable thesis is fundamentally tied to digital assets — a deliberate echo of Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).

Adding yet another layer, CEO Ryan Cohen has publicly floated the idea of acquiring a publicly traded consumer goods company, explicitly comparing the case for such an M&A move favorably against further Bitcoin accumulation. Speculation has ranged from retail consolidation plays to Marathon Digital Holdings, which would cement GameStop's role as a Bitcoin treasury vehicle outright.

What to watch for Q4 fiscal 2025: Consensus estimates point to EPS of approximately $0.31–$0.37 and revenue of approximately $1.47 billion for the quarter. Investors will focus intently on: (1) the Bitcoin mark-to-market gain or loss on the quarter, (2) any update on M&A strategy or additional capital raises, (3) store closure trajectory for fiscal 2026, and (4) whether fiscal year EPS of ~$0.37 holds up given Q3 beat at $0.24 vs. estimates of $0.18. GameStop has a recent history of materially beating EPS estimates — in Q1 fiscal 2025, it reported $0.17 vs. a consensus of $0.04 — making the stock a perennial earnings-day volatility event.

Sector III: Infrastructure & Industrial Distribution

Reporting: Tuesday, March 24 — Core & Main (CNM)

Core & Main, Inc. (CNM)

Core & Main is one of the United States' leading specialty distributors of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products and services, operating over 370 locations nationwide and serving municipalities, private water companies, and professional contractors. The company reports Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 results (fiscal year ended February 1, 2026) on March 24 before the market opens.

Heading into the print, CNM occupies an unusual position: it operates in one of the most structurally compelling long-term markets in the United States — aging water infrastructure — yet it has faced near-term headwinds from softer construction activity and margin pressure. The company beat EPS estimates in Q3 FY2025 by a wide margin ($0.89 actual vs. $0.71 estimate), and beat again in Q2 ($0.87 vs. $0.78), but stumbled in Q1 (miss) and in Q4 FY2024 ($0.33 vs. $0.36 estimate). The fiscal full year's EPS trajectory has been solidly upward, and fiscal 2025 full-year revenue came in at $7.44 billion, up 11% year-over-year.

The most recent guidance from the company reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2025 outlook issued in September 2025. For Q4 specifically, analysts expect EPS of approximately $0.38–$0.48 and revenue of roughly $1.59 billion, which would imply a year-over-year EPS gain of over 45% relative to the $0.33 reported in Q4 FY2024. For the full fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus projects earnings of $2.93 per share and revenue of $7.66 billion.

The acquisition of Pioneer Supply was recently closed, adding scale to the distribution network. On valuation, 11 analysts maintain an average Buy rating with a 12-month price target of $61.91 — representing approximately 30% upside from current levels near $47–$48.

Why this report matters: Core & Main is a direct proxy for U.S. municipal infrastructure investment. With the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) still injecting federal capital into water and wastewater systems, the critical question is how rapidly IIJA-related demand is translating into actual revenue — and whether the company's geographic footprint is positioned to capture the acceleration. Management's fiscal 2026 guidance will be the most-watched item on the call.

Sector IV: E-Commerce & Global Technology

Reporting: Wednesday, March 25 — PDD Holdings (PDD)

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD)

PDD Holdings is the Dublin-incorporated, Shanghai-operated parent of Pinduoduo — China's social commerce giant — and Temu, the cross-border discount e-commerce platform that has rapidly expanded into the U.S., Europe, and Southeast Asia since its 2022 launch. The company reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results on March 25 before the U.S. market opens.

PDD's financial narrative over the past several years has been one of stratospheric growth meeting gravitational reality. Full-year 2024 revenues reached $53.96 billion, up 59% from 2023, while net income surged 87%. But the deceleration that began in Q4 2024 — when revenue grew "only" 24% year-over-year, missing estimates — has continued through 2025, with Q3 2025 revenues of approximately $15.2 billion (Q3 actuals) growing at a meaningfully slower pace than the prior year. PDD beat adjusted EPS of 21.08 yuan in Q3 2025 against a consensus of 16.84 yuan, yet shares still fell post-print as investors focused on the top-line deceleration and ongoing cost investments.

For Q4 2025, analysts estimate revenue in the $16–$17 billion range (with the high estimate at $20.55 billion) and consensus EPS of approximately $2.76–$2.99 per share. The significant range in estimates reflects genuine uncertainty around Temu's trajectory — specifically how the platform is absorbing the impact of new U.S. tariffs on Chinese e-commerce imports, which have created a materially more challenging operating environment for its discount-driven model.

The regulatory overhang is real and multi-dimensional: U.S., EU, and Chinese regulators are all scrutinizing Temu on data privacy, algorithmic practices, and product safety compliance. This uncertainty has kept the stock well below its 52-week high, despite the company sitting on a cash hoard of approximately RMB 331.6 billion (~$45.4 billion).

What to watch: Investors will look for (1) Q4 revenue confirmation vs. expectations amid Temu headwinds, (2) management commentary on the impact of U.S. trade policy changes on Temu's cost base and U.S. market share, (3) progress on the "high-quality development" strategy that has consciously sacrificed near-term revenue for platform ecosystem investment, and (4) any update on Pinduoduo's domestic Chinese market share in the context of heightened competition from JD.com and Alibaba. PDD's stock trades at a forward P/E of ~10x, a significant discount to global e-commerce peers, reflecting both the growth deceleration and the geopolitical risk premium. Freedom Capital Markets maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $170, while B of A Securities has set a target of $140.

Sector V: Business Services & Human Capital Management

Reporting: Wednesday, March 25 — Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX)

Together, Cintas and Paychex form an unusually powerful paired read on the state of U.S. small and mid-sized businesses. Both serve enormous SMB client bases, both are highly correlated with employment trends, and both report on the same day this week.

Cintas Corporation (CTAS)

Cintas is North America's largest uniform rental and workplace supply company, serving over one million businesses across the United States and Canada with corporate identity uniforms, facility services, first aid supplies, and fire protection services. For context on scale: fiscal year 2025 total revenue was $10.34 billion, up 7.7% year-over-year, with record operating margins of 22.8%.

The company will report Q3 FY2026 results (for the quarter ended February 28, 2026) on March 25 before the market opens. This is not a Q4 2025 calendar-year report — Cintas operates on a fiscal year ending May 31, meaning this is the third quarter of its current fiscal year. Cintas has beaten revenue estimates in each of the past two years with consistent 0.7% average upside surprises. The most recent Q2 FY2026 results ($1.21 EPS vs. $1.19 estimate) continued that track record.

For Q3 FY2026, analysts expect EPS of $1.23 and revenue of $2.81–$2.82 billion, implying 7.9% year-over-year growth — consistent with Cintas's well-established mid-to-high single-digit growth trajectory. Full-year FY2026 guidance calls for EPS in the $4.81–$4.88 range.

The company's "moat" is widely recognized: sticky long-term uniform rental contracts with high switching costs, scale advantages over smaller competitors, and a diversified service offering that insulates it from single-vertical downturns. Cintas has paid dividends for 33 consecutive years. The stock carries a market capitalization of approximately $75.3 billion.

Why it matters: Cintas is frequently cited as a leading indicator for U.S. labor market health. Its new customer additions and pricing power are direct functions of business formation rates and employer confidence. Any softening in new customer growth or commentary about SMB spending hesitancy would have broad market read-through implications.

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)

Paychex is one of the nation's largest human capital management (HCM) providers, offering payroll processing, HR outsourcing, benefits administration, retirement services, and time-and-attendance solutions to over 700,000 clients — predominantly small and medium-sized businesses. It will report Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ended February 28, 2026) on March 25 before market open.

Paychex has been a textbook example of reliable, if unspectacular, execution. Q2 FY2026 EPS came in at $1.26, beating the $1.23 estimate by 2.44%, and Q1 FY2026 similarly beat by a slim margin. For the upcoming Q3, consensus estimates are $1.67–$1.68 EPS and $1.78 billion in revenue, representing solid year-over-year growth against a Q3 FY2025 baseline of $1.51 billion.

The company has provided full-year FY2026 EPS guidance of $5.48–$5.53. Paychex maintains a remarkable return on equity of 46.38% and a net margin of 26.45% — figures reflecting the capital-light, subscription-driven nature of its business.

However, not all analyst sentiment is bullish. MarketBeat notes a consensus rating of "Reduce" on the stock with an average price target of $122.81, as the stock has underperformed and trades below its 200-day moving average. The concern: Paychex's growth is structurally tied to SMB hiring trends, and any deterioration in the labor market would disproportionately impact client additions and payroll volumes.

Why it matters: Paychex processes payroll for hundreds of thousands of small businesses. Its management commentary on client retention, new business formation, and interest income from float (a meaningful contributor when rates are elevated) provides one of the best grassroots reads on Main Street economic health available to public markets investors.

Sector VI: Aerospace & Defense

Reporting: Wednesday, March 25 (after close) — Karman Holdings (KRMN)

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)

Karman Holdings is a Huntington Beach, California-based aerospace and defense supplier that specializes in the rapid design, development, and production of mission-critical subsystems for missiles, space, maritime, and unmanned programs. The company went public in February 2025 and since then has emerged as one of the highest-conviction plays on the accelerating U.S. defense spending supercycle.

Karman's Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 results — its first full fiscal year as a public company — will be released on March 25 after market close. The print will be important for establishing the baseline by which Wall Street judges management's execution against guidance and its ability to sustain the growth trajectory that justified a premium IPO valuation.

The recent pre-announcement is broadly constructive: Karman raised fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to $470–$471 million with adjusted EBITDA of $144.5–$144.9 million. For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates revenue of $700–$715 million with adjusted EBITDA of $205–$215 million — implying roughly 50% top-line growth year-over-year. That guidance blows past analysts' prior estimates of $577 million for FY2026, demonstrating that Karman is outpacing even the already-elevated Street expectations.

Analyst Austin Bohlig of Needham initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $125 price target, highlighting Karman as "uniquely positioned" to benefit from a $100 billion 'gold rush' across next-generation missile, space, maritime, and unmanned programs. The firm believes Karman is poised to exceed its 25% organic revenue growth target as the defense spending supercycle accelerates.

Q3 FY2025 results were a mixed bag — revenue of $122 million grew 42% year-over-year and gross profit rose 48%, but EPS of $0.10 missed the $0.12 consensus by 16.67%. For Q4, analysts estimate revenue of approximately $132.5 million and net income of $12.9 million, which would represent a continuation of the sequential acceleration trend. The stock currently carries an extraordinary forward P/E of approximately 185x for FY2026, reflecting the premium the market is willing to pay for hypergrowth in the defense sector.

Why it matters: Karman is a pure-play on the reshaping of U.S. defense procurement toward next-generation technologies — a theme that has intensified with escalating geopolitical competition. Its subsystem-supplier position across over 80 customers creates deep integration with prime contractors and makes it a bellwether for defense program health across multiple platforms simultaneously.

Sector VII: Investment Banking & Financial Services

Reporting: Wednesday, March 25 (after close) — Jefferies Financial Group (JEF)

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)

Jefferies is a leading global investment bank and capital markets firm, consistently ranking among the top independent advisory and underwriting platforms in the United States. It will report Q1 FY2026 results (quarter ended February 28, 2026) on March 25 after market close. Importantly, Jefferies operates on a fiscal year ending November 30, so this is the company's fiscal first quarter — offering one of the earliest data points of the new year for investment banking activity.

The prior quarter (Q4 FY2025, reported January 7, 2026) set a high bar: Jefferies posted investment banking revenue of $1.19 billion — up 20.4% year-over-year — driven by a powerful combination of M&A advisory revival, equity underwriting surging 77.7%, and debt underwriting climbing 25.8%. Advisory revenue reached $634.2 million in Q4 — its second-best quarter on record. For the full fiscal year 2025, Jefferies recorded investment banking net revenues of $3.8 billion — its second-best year ever.

For Q1 FY2026, analysts have a consensus EPS of approximately $0.89 (Zacks) to $1.15 (MarketBeat), with the wide spread reflecting methodological differences rather than deep uncertainty. Revenue consensus is approximately $2.0 billion, up roughly 26% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks estimate reflects a 48.3% year-over-year EPS increase. In the most recent quarter, Jefferies delivered an EPS of $0.96 against an $0.83 estimate — a 15.66% beat.

The broader backdrop for this print is genuinely favorable. Global investment banking revenue for calendar 2025 rose 15% year-over-year to nearly $103 billion — the second-highest total after 2021. Deallogic data shows Jefferies ranked seventh in fees industry-wide for that period. CEO Richard Handler and President Brian Friedman signaled explicitly in their shareholder letter that 2026 should see a strong performance in M&A, advisory, and new issuances. However, a notable headwind remains: Jefferies recorded a $30 million pre-tax loss in Q4 FY2025 related to its Point Bonita private credit fund and the bankruptcy of First Brands — the full resolution of that situation will be watched.

Why it matters: Jefferies typically reports weeks ahead of its larger bulge-bracket peers, making it a de facto leading indicator for the investment banking industry. Strong results and forward guidance from Jefferies would provide early confirmation that the M&A and capital markets recovery remains intact — a key tailwind for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the broader financial sector.

Sector VIII: Global Protein & Food Production

Reporting: Wednesday, March 25 — JBS N.V. (JBS)

JBS N.V. (JBS)

JBS N.V. is the world's largest protein company by revenue, operating across beef, pork, poultry, prepared foods, and plant-based proteins in more than 20 countries. The company listed on the NYSE in June 2025 under the ticker JBS — a historic milestone following years of advocacy by institutional investors for a U.S. listing to improve governance, transparency, and liquidity. JBS will report Q4 2025 results on March 25.

Q3 2025 established an impressive foundation: JBS posted record net sales of $22.6 billion, up 21.9% year-over-year, beating the consensus estimate of $21.69 billion by 4.2%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.83 billion (8.1% margin), net income was $581 million, and the leverage ratio stood at a manageable 2.39x. The company completed a $600 million share buyback program during the quarter.

For Q4 2025, analysts estimate revenue of approximately BRL 119.37 billion and net income of approximately BRL 2.47 billion (the company reports in Brazilian Real for its primary financials). U.S. dollar EPS consensus is approximately $1.51. Performance in Q3 2025 already showed strength across all business units and confident guidance for 2026 — particularly for the Australian and Brazilian operations.

The Batista family governance reforms and NYSE relisting have materially improved investor sentiment: after the Q3 beat, the stock gained 9.59% over the following weeks. Banco Santander upgraded JBS to Buy with a price target of $17, and another analyst maintained a Buy with a $22 target. The stock currently trades at a deeply discounted 7.9x forward P/E versus an industry average closer to 19x — a gap that reflects residual governance skepticism and ESG concerns despite the reforms.

Why it matters: JBS's results provide a window into global protein trade flows, cattle supply constraints (notably the February 2026 closure of its Swift Beef facility in Riverside), and the trajectory of Pilgrim's Pride (its U.S. poultry subsidiary). As the world's largest meat company with operations spanning five continents, any guidance around commodity input costs, export demand (particularly from Asia), and U.S. tariff pass-through has broad read-across implications for the global food system.

Sector IX: Materials, Metals & Specialty Mining

Reporting: Thursday, March 26 — Commercial Metals Company (CMC); Friday, March 27 — TMC the metals company (TMC)

Commercial Metals Company (CMC)

Commercial Metals Company is one of North America's leading manufacturers and recyclers of steel, operating an integrated network of steel mills, fabrication facilities, and downstream processing operations. CMC reports Q2 FY2026 results (quarter ended February 28, 2026) on March 26 before the market opens. Like Cintas and Paychex, CMC operates on a fiscal year ending August 31.

The preceding quarter set a powerful precedent: Q1 FY2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $1.84, beating the $1.55 consensus estimate by 17.95%, with revenue of $2.12 billion exceeding expectations by 2.91% and consolidated core EBITDA soaring 52% year-over-year to $316.9 million. That result was a dramatic reversal from the compressed margins of FY2025 Q2 (EPS: $0.26, a 13% miss) and Q3 ($0.74, a 13% miss), demonstrating that the steel market's recovery is gaining traction.

For Q2 FY2026, analysts expect EPS of approximately $1.28–$1.33 and revenue of approximately $1.98–$2.10 billion — representing a year-over-year EPS gain of approximately 392%. This exceptional year-over-year comparison is heavily influenced by the Q2 FY2025 weakness ($0.26 EPS). Full fiscal year FY2026 EPS consensus is approximately $3.00, with FY2027 estimates already at $5.00. The stock trades at a P/E of ~15.8x and carries a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating with an average price target of $72.80.

Why it matters: CMC's results and commentary provide one of the most direct reads on U.S. non-residential construction activity, infrastructure project starts, and the health of the domestic long steel market. Management's commentary on demand from data center construction, grid infrastructure, and residential markets will be closely watched in the context of ongoing industrial policy uncertainty and tariff impacts on imported steel.

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)

TMC the metals company is a pre-revenue explorer and developer pursuing what it calls the world's largest undeveloped deposit of critical battery metals — polymetallic nodules resting on the seafloor of the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean. TMC will host a conference call on Friday, March 27, disclosing Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results.

This is emphatically not a conventional earnings story. TMC generates no commercial revenue, burns cash on exploration and regulatory costs, and has posted losses in every quarter of its public life. Q3 2025 EPS was (−$0.14), a significant miss versus the consensus of (−$0.06); Q2 2025 was even worse at (−$0.20) against a (−$0.05) estimate. Cash used in operations was $13.8 million in Q4 2024 alone. For Q4 2025, analysts estimate EPS of (−$0.06) on zero commercial revenue.

What makes TMC relevant — and genuinely exciting to a specific class of investor — is its regulatory and geopolitical progress. In January 2026, TMC filed the first-ever consolidated application under NOAA's new process for deep-seabed mining exploration and commercial recovery. This historic filing expanded the company's proposed recovery area from ~25,000 to 65,000 square kilometers, containing an estimated 619 million tonnes of wet nodules rich in nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese. In March 2026, NOAA confirmed the application was in substantial compliance with all regulatory requirements — eliminating a potentially lengthy back-and-forth revision process.

The macro tailwind is also meaningful: President Trump's Executive Order 14285, "Unleashing America's Critical Offshore Minerals and Resources," has explicitly positioned deep-seabed minerals as a matter of national security. Analysts note that NOAA's confirmation marks the first time any company has progressed this far in the U.S. regulatory process for commercial seabed mining.

Why it matters: TMC's Q4 update will be more important for its regulatory timeline disclosure than its income statement. Investors should monitor management's commentary on the permitting timeline toward a commercial recovery license, cash burn trajectory and liquidity (approximately $43 million in liquidity as of Q4 2024), and any strategic partnerships or offtake discussions with technology manufacturers dependent on battery-grade nickel and cobalt — materials central to the energy transition.

Sector X: Autonomous Vehicles & Mobility Technology

Reporting: Thursday, March 26 — Pony AI (PONY)

Pony AI Inc. (PONY)

Pony AI is a Guangzhou-based Level-4 autonomous driving company — dual-listed on the NASDAQ and Hong Kong Stock Exchange — and one of China's most advanced robotaxi operators. It reports Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results on March 26 before the U.S. market opens.

Pony AI's Q4 2025 is expected to be its most consequential yet — both financially and operationally. The company closed the year having exceeded its 1,000-vehicle robotaxi fleet target, reaching 1,159 vehicles by December 31, 2025, with 667 of them seventh-generation models. In Q4, its Gen-7 Robotaxi began fully driverless commercial operations in all four of China's major tier-one cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen — and achieved positive city-level unit economics in Guangzhou, with each vehicle averaging 23 daily orders.

Financially, Pony AI's most recent Q3 2025 revenue was $25.4 million — up 72% year-over-year — driven by robotaxi fares, autonomous truck operations, and technology licensing fees. Robotaxi revenues specifically grew 89.5%, with passenger fares up more than 200%. However, costs continue to exceed revenue, with Q3 2025 net loss reaching $616 million, up 46% year-over-year, and cash declining from $747.7 million to $587.7 million as of September 30. The November 2025 Hong Kong IPO raised approximately $1.12 billion (though shares dipped on opening day), providing additional runway.

For Q4 2025, analysts estimate EPS of approximately $0.22 and revenue of approximately $23.93 million. Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao has initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $29 price target, calling Pony AI "at the forefront of robotaxi commercialization in China" and designating 2026 as "the starting point," with the company's fleet set to triple to over 3,000 vehicles by year-end 2026 alongside a 20% decline in hardware costs.

Why it matters: Pony AI's Q4 print represents the first opportunity for investors to assess whether the Q4 operational milestones — fully driverless operations, positive unit economics in Guangzhou — are translating into accelerating revenue and a credible path toward EBITDA breakeven. The fleet tripling target for 2026 is audacious; management's tone on execution risk, capital requirements for scaling, and international expansion (Dubai, South Korea, Luxembourg) will be carefully parsed.

Sector XI: Leisure, Travel & Hospitality

Reporting: Friday, March 27 — Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)

Carnival Corporation is the world's largest cruise company by passenger capacity, operating nine iconic brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America, and Costa Cruises across six continents. It will report Q1 FY2026 results (quarter ended February 28, 2026) on March 27 before the market opens. Carnival's fiscal year runs December 1 – November 30, making Q1 the seasonally softest quarter.

The baseline heading into this print is strong. Carnival delivered a record full-year FY2025 adjusted net income of $3.1 billion on revenue of $26.6 billion, achieved an investment-grade recognition from Fitch with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.4x, and reinstated a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share. Management provided explicit Q1 FY2026 guidance: adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.24 billion and adjusted net income of approximately $235 million ($0.17 EPS diluted).

Consensus estimates align closely with guidance: analysts expect Q1 FY2026 EPS of approximately $0.17–$0.18 and revenue of approximately $6.12 billion. For the full fiscal year 2026, Carnival guided for adjusted net income of ~$3.5 billion (surpassing the record FY2025 level) and adjusted EBITDA of ~$7.63 billion. A meaningful tailwind is quantified: management expects approximately $0.20 EPS in combined fuel and FX benefits in FY2026 ($0.17 from fuel, $0.03 from currency).

The demand backdrop remains broadly healthy: cumulative advanced booking positions for 2026 are "in line with 2025 record levels at historical high prices in constant currency." Net yields are expected to grow ~5.1% in Q1 and ~3.7% for the full year on a current-dollar basis.

That said, risks have emerged. The imposition of new tariffs has raised questions about input costs for a fleet that relies heavily on imported goods and fuel purchased across global markets. Disrupted Mexican itineraries following geopolitical tensions temporarily impacted certain Carnival brands' routing, adding near-term uncertainty around capacity utilization.

Why it matters: Carnival's Q1 print kicks off the 2026 cruise season earnings cycle and serves as the most important read on consumer willingness to spend on premium leisure experiences. With $8+ billion in annual EBITDA on the horizon, the stock's deleveraging story — now validated by the Fitch investment-grade designation — positions it as a potential dividend growth vehicle as well as an earnings compounder. Any deviation from management's already-explicit guidance for Q1 would likely generate significant market reaction given the precision of prior estimates.

Special Note: Metsera, Inc. (MTSR) — No Earnings Report Expected

Metsera, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing next-generation GLP-1 and amylin analog therapies for obesity, was acquired by Pfizer in a transaction completed on November 13, 2025, for $65.60 per share in cash (~$7.0 billion enterprise value), plus a contingent value right of up to $20.65 per share tied to three clinical and regulatory milestones for MET-097i and MET-233i. Following the acquisition, Metsera's common stock was delisted from the NASDAQ Global Select Market, and the company now operates as a wholly owned Pfizer subsidiary.

Accordingly, no public quarterly earnings report from MTSR will be issued during the week of March 23–27, 2026. Investors tracking the GLP-1 obesity space should follow Pfizer (PFE) for ongoing updates on the integration and clinical advancement of MET-097i toward its Phase 3 program.

Earnings Calendar Summary

 

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All estimates are based on analyst consensus data available prior to earnings release. Actual results may differ materially from estimates. Past performance of a company's earnings beats or misses is not a guarantee of future results.

 

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