Key Points
- President Trump’s extension of the EU tariff deadline from June 1 to July 9 triggered a relief rally in global equities, particularly in European-exposed sectors.
- Bitcoin (BTC.X) failed to stabilize near $110,000 and dropped to $105,000, while Ethereum (ETH.X) hit a three-month high above $2,800, driven by market rotation into altcoins.
- Corporate earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and Dell (DELL) influenced stock markets, with Nvidia citing China challenges and Dell offering strong guidance.
- US trade court rulings, initially blocking and later upholding tariffs, caused volatility in equities and currencies.
- Elon Musk’s exit from his Trump administration role boosted Tesla (TSLA) shares, signaling renewed investor confidence.
Overview
The week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, was a dynamic period for financial markets, driven by trade policy developments, corporate earnings, and cryptocurrency price movements. President Trump’s decision to extend the tariff deadline for EU imports from June 1 to July 9 sparked a relief rally across global equities, particularly benefiting European sectors such as autos and luxury goods. However, the US Court of International Trade’s initial ruling to block these tariffs, followed by a federal appeals court’s reversal, reintroduced uncertainty, leading to fluctuations in stock indices and currency markets. In the corporate sector, Nvidia (NVDA) reported robust earnings but highlighted challenges due to US export restrictions on AI chips to China, while Dell (DELL) surprised investors with optimistic guidance despite missing earnings estimates. Cryptocurrency markets saw Bitcoin (BTC.X) stabilizing near $110,000 as traders awaited key economic data, while Ethereum (ETH.X) surged to a three-month high above $2,800, fueled by pent-up demand and rotation into altcoins. Additionally, Elon Musk’s departure from his role as a Special Government Employee in the Trump administration revived investor appetite for Tesla (TSLA), contributing to a strong weekly performance.
Equities
- S&P 500 (SPY): The index surged 2% on May 26 following Trump’s tariff delay, contributing to a 20% gain since its April 8 low. Volatility ensued after a federal appeals court upheld the tariffs, with futures slipping 0.3%. From May 23 to May 29, the S&P 500 rose 0.40%, closing at 5,912.18 USD.
- Nasdaq Composite (QQQ): Nasdaq futures rallied 1% on May 26 after the initial tariff block, driven by optimism in tech-heavy sectors. Subsequent court rulings and earnings reports caused fluctuations. From May 23 to May 29, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.32%, closing at 19,175.87.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA): The Dow followed a similar pattern, gaining 0.9% in futures on May 26 but facing volatility later. From May 23 to May 29, it rose 0.28%, closing at 42,215.73.
- Individual Stocks:
- Apple (AAPL): Shares rose 1.7% in pre-market trading on May 26, poised to open at $198, valuing the company at $3 trillion, as investors anticipated a tariff exemption for iPhones.
- Nvidia (NVDA): The stock surged 5% after reporting $44.1 billion in revenue (+69% YoY) and 81 cents EPS (+33% YoY), though guidance was slightly below expectations due to a $10.5 billion hit from China export restrictions.
- Dell (DELL): Shares jumped up to 5% in pre-market trading after guidance of $2.25 EPS and $28.5–$29.5 billion in revenue for the current quarter, surpassing estimates despite a $1.55 EPS miss.
- Tesla (TSLA): Shares rose 5.6% for the week as Musk’s exit from his Trump administration role signaled a renewed focus on Tesla’s electric vehicle future.
- GameStop (GME): The stock fluctuated after purchasing 4,710 Bitcoin for $512.6 million, initially rising 3% before falling 3% as traders assessed the risky move.
Currencies
- EUR/USD: The euro spiked to a one-month high of $1.1418 on May 26 due to Trump’s tariff delay but fell to $1.1335 by May 29, a 0.73% drop, as the dollar strengthened amid trade uncertainties.
- GBP/USD: Sterling reached a three-year high near $1.36 on May 26, supported by strong UK retail sales and 3.5% inflation, reducing Bank of England rate cut odds to 15%. It fell to $1.35 by May 29, a 0.74% drop.
- USD/JPY: The pair remained relatively flat, with a 0.3% dive on May 26, as the dollar strengthened overall due to trade tensions.
Commodities
- Gold (XAU/USD): Gold rebounded to $3,300 on May 26 as trade tensions eased, hitting a session high of $3,320. By May 29, it slightly increased to $3,301.53 USD/oz, a 0.05% gain, amid ongoing uncertainty.
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin (BTC.X): Stabilized near $110,000 on May 26, with traders awaiting US GDP and PCE inflation data. By May 29, it fell to $105,996.41, a 3.64% drop, reflecting a cautious market.
- Ethereum (ETH.X): Reached a three-month high above $2,800 on May 26, driven by pent-up demand and rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins. By May 29, it fell to $2,721.81, a 2.80% drop.
Economic Indicators and Policy Developments
- US Trade Court Rulings: On May 25, the US Court of International Trade declared Trump’s tariffs illegal under the 1977 IEEPA, boosting Nasdaq futures by 2% and S&P 500 futures by 1.6%. A federal appeals court reversed this on May 26, causing a 0.3% drop in S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures.
- Federal Reserve Minutes: Released earlier in May, the minutes highlighted rising inflation concerns and the potential for sustained high interest rates, adding to market uncertainty.
- Upcoming Data: Markets anticipated US GDP data on May 29 and the Fed’s PCE inflation gauge on May 30, expected to show April inflation at 2.5%, down from 2.6% in March, potentially influencing future market movements.
Summary
The week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, was characterized by significant volatility driven by trade policy shifts, corporate earnings, and cryptocurrency dynamics. Trump’s tariff delay initially boosted equities and currencies, but the reinstatement of tariffs by a federal appeals court reintroduced uncertainty. Strong earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and Dell (DELL) supported tech stocks, while Tesla (TSLA) benefited from Musk’s renewed focus. Bitcoin (BTC.X) and Ethereum (ETH.X) saw notable price movements, reflecting cautious optimism in cryptocurrencies. Investors navigated a complex landscape of trade tensions, economic data anticipation, and corporate developments.
Looking Ahead
- Economic Data: The upcoming PCE inflation data and US GDP figures will provide insights into the economy’s health, potentially influencing monetary policy expectations.
- Trade Policy: The resolution of US-EU trade tensions and the White House’s appeal against the trade court ruling will be critical for market stability.
- Corporate Catalysts: Tesla’s (TSLA) Cybercab robotaxi unveiling in June could drive stock-specific interest.
- Cryptocurrencies: The sustainability of Bitcoin (BTC.X) and Ethereum (ETH.X) rallies will depend on regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors.