Independent refiners are among the most cyclical stocks in the energy complex, with earnings tied closely to crack spreads, crude differentials, and product demand. This stock comparison examines three publicly traded U.S. refiners — HF Sinclair (DINO), PBF Energy (PBF), and Valero Energy (VLO) — to help traders and investors assess their relative performance and market positioning. The comparison is especially relevant for those evaluating energy-sector exposure, value versus growth trade-offs, and how scale, geography, and diversification shape resilience during volatile margin environments.
HF Sinclair (DINO) is a diversified independent energy company based in Dallas, Texas, operating refineries across Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah. Beyond refining, it markets fuels through branded stations, produces lubricants and specialty products, and operates renewable diesel, marketing, and midstream segments.
In recent quarters, DINO delivered a notable earnings inflection. In its most recent reported quarter, net income attributable to shareholders rebounded to roughly $403 million, or $2.15 per diluted share, versus a year-ago loss, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit divided by shares outstanding) reached $2.44. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) climbed to about $870 million, driven primarily by higher refining margins in its West and Mid-Continent regions and improved reliability. Management has also cited a constructive outlook for refining fundamentals heading into the next cycle, supported by planned midstream expansion projects. Sentiment has been further supported by shareholder returns, including buybacks and a $0.50 quarterly dividend.
PBF Energy (PBF) is one of the largest independent refiners in North America, with refineries in California, Delaware, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Ohio, organized into Refining and Logistics segments. It also holds a 50% stake in the St. Bernard Renewables joint venture.
Recent performance has been uneven. In its latest reported quarter, PBF beat consensus estimates with adjusted EPS of $0.49 versus an expected loss, aided by higher refining margins across its regions. For the full year, however, the company reported a net loss of roughly $158 million, reflecting a challenging earlier stretch and the lingering operational impact of the Martinez refinery fire and rebuild. Management continues to advance a reliability and cost-improvement program and expects meaningful run-rate savings. PBF also carries relatively higher net debt, which amplifies both upside and downside sensitivity to refining margins, and pays a smaller dividend than its larger peers.
Valero Energy (VLO) is one of the world's largest independent refiners, operating 15 petroleum refineries across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, with a combined throughput capacity of roughly 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd). It also operates ethanol and renewable diesel businesses, giving it a broader earnings base than many peers.
In its most recent reported quarter, VLO posted adjusted EPS of $3.82, beating estimates and improving sharply year over year, with refining margin per barrel rising to $13.61. Full-year results reflected record refining throughput and ethanol production. The company announced a dividend increase to $1.20 per share and ended the period with a debt-to-capitalization ratio, net of cash, of about 18%, underscoring balance-sheet strength. A decision to cease refining operations at its Benicia, California facility highlights ongoing West Coast rationalization, while management remains constructive on refining fundamentals tied to tight product supply and demand growth.
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Business model and scale represent the clearest contrasts. VLO is the largest and most diversified, blending refining with ethanol and renewable diesel, while DINO adds lubricants, specialty products, and branded marketing to its refining base. PBF is a more focused, pure-play refiner with a smaller, more leveraged footprint.
On momentum, DINO and VLO have shown steadier earnings recoveries, whereas PBF remains in a rebuild phase following operational disruptions. Risk profiles also differ: PBF faces elevated operational and financial leverage, while VLO benefits from a stronger balance sheet and DINO from a more diversified, integrated model. Valuation sensitivity is high across all three, as refining margins remain the dominant driver of earnings in every case.
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, diversification, and balance-sheet strength, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VLO among the three. Its scale, record operational performance, dividend growth, and lower leverage suggest more durable relative positioning in the current refining environment. DINO presents a compelling recovery and diversification story, while PBF offers higher-beta exposure but with greater volatility and balance-sheet risk. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current market conditions rather than a guaranteed outcome.
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DINO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 65 of the 84 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 77%.
Following a +0.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DINO advanced for three days, in 240 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 224 of 296 cases where DINO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DINO moved out of overbought territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 29 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 60 cases where DINO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DINO turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DINO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
DINO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DINO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.103) is normal, around the industry mean (4.981). P/E Ratio (11.598) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.580). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.134) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.665) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Following a +8.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in 264 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
PBF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 245 of 315 cases where PBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 33 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PBF as a result. In 55 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PBF turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 77%.
PBF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.409) is normal, around the industry mean (4.981). P/E Ratio (6.583) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.580). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
VLO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 40 of the 53 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VLO moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 36 of the 51 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VLO as a result. In 49 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +0.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 260 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.829) is normal, around the industry mean (4.981). P/E Ratio (17.477) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.580). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
DINO | PBF | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 86 | 93 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 46 Fair valued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 30 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 41 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 34 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 84 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (46) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (65) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (88) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PBF's stock grew similarly to DINO’s and somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (9) in the null industry, and is in the same range as PBF (30) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that VLO's stock grew similarly to DINO’s and similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as DINO (48) in the null industry. This means that VLO's stock grew similarly to PBF’s and similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as DINO (34) in the null industry. This means that VLO's stock grew similarly to PBF’s and similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (84) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (90) in the null industry, and is in the same range as VLO (95) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PBF's stock grew similarly to DINO’s and similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| DINO | PBF | VLO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 12 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 77% |
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DINO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PBF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and VLO’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DINO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PBF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and VLO’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
DINO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -2.90% price change this week, while PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -9.88% , and VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price fluctuated -5.72% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.98%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was +36.90%.
DINO is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DINO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DINO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DINO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 100% | -0.54% | ||
| MPC - DINO | 80% Closely correlated | -0.45% | ||
| VLO - DINO | 79% Closely correlated | -1.64% | ||
| PBF - DINO | 77% Closely correlated | -3.89% | ||
| DK - DINO | 76% Closely correlated | -1.82% | ||
| PSX - DINO | 75% Closely correlated | -0.51% | ||
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | -3.89% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 79% Closely correlated | -1.64% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -0.54% | ||
| DK - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -1.82% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -0.45% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -3.78% | ||
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -1.64% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 87% Closely correlated | -0.45% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 84% Closely correlated | -0.51% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 80% Closely correlated | -0.54% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 79% Closely correlated | -3.89% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -3.78% | ||
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