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DK or MPC or PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DK, MPC, and PARR are all U.S. downstream refiners, but they differ sharply in scale, diversification, and balance-sheet strength.
- MPC is by far the largest and most diversified, combining a roughly 3-million-barrel-per-day refining system with the MPLX midstream franchise.
- DK has posted the strongest recent estimate-revision momentum, aided by higher refining margins and its Enterprise Optimization Plan.
- PARR trades at the lowest valuation multiples but carries less liquidity, no dividend, and higher single-region concentration risk.
- All three have rallied strongly on firm refining margins, yet their risk profiles and momentum patterns are meaningfully different.
Introduction
Refining equities have been among the strongest performers in the energy complex over the past year, rewarding investors who positioned for tighter product margins and improved operational execution. This stock comparison examines three names at very different points on the size and diversification spectrum: DK (Delek US Holdings), MPC (Marathon Petroleum), and PARR (Par Pacific Holdings). A large-cap, integrated refiner sits alongside two smaller, more focused operators, making this a useful lens for traders weighing relative performance, market positioning, and risk tolerance within a single subsector.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
DK (Delek US Holdings) is a diversified downstream energy company whose refining operations across Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana offer roughly 302,000 barrels per day of nameplate crude capacity. A controlling interest in DKL (Delek Logistics Partners) adds recurring midstream cash flow. In recent market activity, the stock has been a standout, gaining substantially over trailing three-month, six-month, and one-year periods and outperforming both its refining sub-industry and the broader energy sector. The catalyst mix includes sharply higher Gulf Coast crack spreads, a peer-leading distillate and jet fuel yield, and Small Refinery Exemptions that reduced renewable volume obligation (RVO) pressure. Management's Enterprise Optimization Plan (EOP), targeting at least $220 million of annual free cash flow (FCF) improvement, has supported a rapid upward revision in analyst earnings estimates.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is one of the largest U.S. refiners, processing nearly 3 million barrels per day at high utilization while operating an extensive logistics network through MPLX. Its recent share-price momentum has been exceptional, with the stock more than doubling on a year-to-date basis and repeatedly reaching record highs, ranking among the top performers in the S&P 500 energy complex. Performance has been driven less by commodity price swings than by operational execution: refining and marketing margin capture exceeded 100% in recent quarters, unplanned downtime fell to decade lows, and high-return refinery projects continued to come online. Strong cash generation has funded substantial buybacks and dividends, supported by roughly $7.8 billion in consolidated cash and an untapped $5 billion revolving credit facility.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
PARR (Par Pacific Holdings) operates a smaller refining footprint spanning Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies, complemented by retail and logistics segments. The company has delivered a sharp earnings inflection, with trailing net income and earnings per share (EPS) rising materially as refining economics improved. Its shares have also appreciated strongly over the past year, though recent trading has been more volatile, with the stock pulling back from multi-year highs in recent weeks. Several brokerages have shifted ratings to neutral on valuation grounds even as price targets rose, reflecting a debate over whether the stock's low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio already captures its cyclical earnings peak. The company does not currently pay a dividend, and its balance sheet carries less absolute liquidity than its larger peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast among these three is scale and diversification. MPC pairs a national refining platform with a large midstream business, generating steadier cash flow, a dividend, and significant buyback capacity. DK offers a similar refining-plus-midstream structure at roughly one-tenth the market capitalization, creating greater operating and earnings leverage per dollar of exposure. PARR is the most concentrated of the group, with regional refining and retail operations that magnify both upside and downside to localized margin conditions.
Valuation sensitivity differs as well. PARR screens cheapest on trailing and forward earnings, but that discount partly reflects elevated cyclical earnings and thinner liquidity. DK carries a mid-range multiple with the strongest recent estimate-revision trend, while MPC commands a premium justified by scale, reliability, and balance-sheet flexibility. On momentum, MPC has shown the most consistent uptrend, DK the most pronounced earnings-estimate acceleration, and PARR the greatest short-term volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MPC as the highest-conviction candidate among the three. The stock combines persistent upward momentum with scale, superior margin capture, and a diversified cash-flow base that tempers cyclical risk. DK presents a strong secondary case given its accelerating estimate revisions and free-cash-flow initiatives, while PARR may appeal primarily to higher-risk, valuation-driven strategies. These assessments are probabilistic and reflect current market conditions rather than a prediction of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
DK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
DK moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 35 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DK as a result. In 59 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DK just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where DK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +4.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DK advanced for three days, in 248 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
DK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 203 of 252 cases where DK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DK moved out of overbought territory on September 18, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 77%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 52 of 65 cases where DK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (25.681) is normal, around the industry mean (5.093). P/E Ratio (21.430) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.969). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.140) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.397) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
Aroon Indicator for MPC shows an upward move is likely
MPC's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 348 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 269 of the 348 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MPC as a result. In 63 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MPC just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where MPC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MPC moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 57 cases where MPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
MPC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.889) is normal, around the industry mean (5.093). P/E Ratio (16.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.969). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
PARR sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On October 21, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for PARR moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 43 of the 51 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
PARR moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +9.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PARR advanced for three days, in 269 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
PARR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 243 of 296 cases where PARR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PARR as a result. In 63 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PARR turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PARR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PARR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.141) is normal, around the industry mean (5.093). P/E Ratio (4.873) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.969). PARR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.990) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.494) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
DK | MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 89 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 3 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 21 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 1 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 83 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (87) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (94) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as PARR (96) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to DK’s and similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as PARR (14) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to DK’s and similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
DK's SMR Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (19) in the Oil And Gas Production industry, and is in the same range as MPC (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that DK's stock grew similarly to PARR’s and similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DK (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PARR (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC's stock grew somewhat faster than DK’s and somewhat faster than PARR’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (83) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PARR (83) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that DK's stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s and somewhat faster than PARR’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 9 days ago 77% | 10 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 30 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 82% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while MPC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and PARR’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PARR’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -0.95% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -3.49% , and PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price fluctuated -4.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -2.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +38.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-2.97% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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DK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DK has been closely correlated with PARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DK jumps, then PARR could also see price increases.
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | -0.48% | ||
| DK - PARR | 77% Closely correlated | +0.76% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 74% Closely correlated | -1.76% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 72% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 69% Closely correlated | -1.49% | ||
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