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DK or MPC or PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three are U.S. refiners benefiting from historically strong refining margins, but they differ sharply in scale, diversification, and risk profile.
- MPC is the largest and most diversified, combining the nation's biggest refining system with a large midstream stake in MPLX.
- DK blends refining with a growing logistics platform (DKL) and a self-help margin program, but carries a heavier debt load.
- PARR is the smallest and most geographically concentrated, yet trades at the lowest valuation multiples after a sharp earnings inflection.
- Recent momentum has favored all three, though MPC and PARR have posted the strongest year-to-date gains, while DK has shown the most volatility.
Introduction
Refining stocks have emerged as one of the energy sector's standout themes in recent market activity, driven by tight global fuel inventories, elevated crack spreads (the margin between crude oil and refined product prices), and disrupted fuel supply. This stock comparison examines three publicly traded refiners across the size spectrum: DK (Delek US Holdings), MPC (Marathon Petroleum), and PARR (Par Pacific Holdings). The analysis is relevant to investors weighing scale and stability against higher-beta, valuation-sensitive exposure, and to traders tracking relative performance and market positioning within the refining complex.
DK Overview and Recent Performance
Delek US Holdings (DK) is a Brentwood, Tennessee-based integrated downstream energy company operating refineries, logistics assets, and retail fuel operations. Its majority stake in Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) provides a recurring midstream cash-flow stream alongside its refining business. In recent quarters, DK delivered a sharp earnings recovery: second-quarter adjusted earnings reached $5.48 per share, well above consensus estimates, supported by refining margins that more than doubled year over year. Shares rallied roughly 60% over a recent three-month stretch. Sentiment has been further shaped by DK's Enterprise Optimization Plan, which targets at least $220 million in annual free-cash-flow improvement, as well as a recent $400 million convertible notes offering that reshapes its balance sheet. DK's elevated debt-to-capital ratio remains a key watch item.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum (MPC), headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, is the largest U.S. refiner by capacity, operating more than three million barrels per day across 16 refineries, alongside a majority interest in midstream operator MPLX (MPLX). Recent market activity has been notably strong: MPC reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $17.73 per share, more than four times the prior-year level, with refining and marketing margins rising to roughly $36 per barrel. The company returned more than $2.8 billion to shareholders in the quarter and maintained a large cash balance with significant liquidity. Shares have more than doubled year to date, and analysts have raised price targets in response to tight refining capacity. MPC's scale, diversified feedstock access, and fee-based midstream income support a comparatively stable market positioning, though its size moderates relative upside.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), based in Houston, operates a much smaller refining footprint of roughly 219,000 barrels per day concentrated in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies, alongside retail and logistics segments. PARR delivered its strongest-ever quarter in the recent period, with adjusted earnings of $10.10 per share and net income approaching half a billion dollars, as refining adjusted gross margin nearly tripled year over year. The Hawaii refinery was the standout performer after its turnaround, and the company advanced a renewable fuels (sustainable aviation fuel) initiative. PARR trades at a notably low trailing EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) multiple relative to peers. Its concentrated geographic exposure and sensitivity to regional margin swings, however, introduce above-average cyclical risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast among the three is scale and diversification. MPC offers the broadest national footprint, multiple refining regions, and a large, fee-based midstream business through MPLX, which smooths the inherent cyclicality of refining. DK sits in the middle, pairing a mid-size refining system with a logistics partnership that supplies recurring distributions, while an internal cost program provides an idiosyncratic earnings catalyst. PARR is the smallest and least diversified, with meaningful concentration in Hawaii and the West Coast.
On valuation, the trade-offs invert. PARR trades at a single-digit trailing EV/EBITDA multiple and a low price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting market skepticism about the durability of its cycle-peak margins. MPC's forward earnings multiple is also modest, though its shares have already appreciated substantially. DK's valuation is more balanced, with a higher earnings multiple than peers partly offset by faster estimate revisions.
Risk profiles diverge as well. DK's elevated debt and recent convertible issuance add financial-leverage sensitivity. PARR's geographic concentration and lack of margin hedging expose it to sharp regional swings. MPC's larger balance sheet, liquidity position, and diversified cash flows provide relatively greater stability, though its size limits the magnitude of operational upside. Sector-wide, all three remain exposed to refining margin normalization, crude price volatility, and regulatory developments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express the strongest relative conviction in MPC. Its combination of consistent trend strength, scale-driven diversification, stable fee-based midstream cash flows through MPLX, robust liquidity, and substantial shareholder returns presents a more balanced risk-reward profile than its smaller peers. PARR may appeal to momentum-oriented models given its valuation discount and earnings inflection, but its concentration and cyclical sensitivity likely temper a probabilistic confidence ranking. DK offers a compelling self-help catalyst and leverage to improving margins, yet its balance-sheet considerations may place it slightly behind MPC in stability-weighted scoring. This assessment reflects relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction, and conditions could shift with refining margins and macroeconomic developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
DK | MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 3 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 21 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 5 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 93 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (66) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (71) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as PARR (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to DK’s and similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (8) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as PARR (15) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to DK’s and similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
DK's SMR Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (19) in the Oil And Gas Production industry, and is in the same range as MPC (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that DK's stock grew similarly to PARR’s and similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DK (36) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as PARR (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to DK’s and similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
DK's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PARR (87) in the Oil And Gas Production industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (93) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that DK's stock grew somewhat faster than PARR’s and somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| DK | MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 54% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 86% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 77% | 11 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 80% | 19 days ago 59% | 5 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 85% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DK’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while MPC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and PARR’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PARR’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
DK (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +0.43% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +7.74% , and PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price fluctuated -2.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +42.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
DK is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.79% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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DK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DK has been closely correlated with PARR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DK jumps, then PARR could also see price increases.
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.