The Positive Volume Index (PVI) is a technical indicator that tracks increases in trade volume for an index or security, as well as the changes in price on those days. Paul Dysart developed the original version of this indicator for market indexes using advance-decline numbers instead of prices. The Positive Volume Index was then redesigned by Norman Fosback for individual securities – the version commonly used today. Continue reading...
The Negative Volume Index (NVI) is a technical indicator that tracks decreases in trade volume for an index or security, as well as price changes on those days. Paul Dysart developed the original version of this indicator for market indexes, and it garnered renewed attention when it was reworked in the 1970s via Norman Fosback in his book Stock Market Logic. The price changes in a security or the percentage change in an index are only added to or subtracted from the Negative Volume Index on days when the trading volume is lower than the day before. By watching market movement on days with lower trading volume, investors can identify where institutions and fund managers are moving their money. If trading volume is down and the market continues to do well, it means that there is a strong bullish primary trend, and that trading volume is not artificially pushing prices around. Continue reading...
Volume is a count of trades in a security or market, or their derivative instruments and can be indicative of trends and sentiment. Volume is the number of trades in a security or market in a given time. Trade volume is important because it helps analysts pick apart the factors driving a trend or get an idea of the strength of a trend. Potential buyers and sellers can push the Bid and Ask prices around at will, hypothetically, but a trade only occurs when the buyer and seller transact business; also, even only a minimal number of trades can move prices around, but this is not indicative of a strong trend — a few trades more and the price is where it was before. Continue reading...
A short position is a sale made by an investor for a security which he or she will deliver to the buyer in the near future, but which he or she is hoping will go down in price in the near future so that a profit can be retained from the price collected in the short sale. A short position is a bearish play on a security which an investor believes will decrease in price in the near future. The investor offers shares for sale, and collects the current market price for the shares from the buyer. Continue reading...
A long position - or to be “long a stock” - means that an investor has share ownership and will receive an economic benefit if the share price rises, and vice versa. Creating and maintaining a long position is simple: an investor just buys and owns the investment. A “long-only” strategy refers to an asset manager that only buys and sells securities in the portfolio as a management strategy - they will not use options or shorting strategies as a result. Continue reading...
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a popular leading indicator introduced in the 1960s by Joe Granville. OBV is a line built using differences between daily trading volume – in Granville’s estimation, the major driver of market behavior – adding the difference on days that the market or stock moves up and subtracting the difference on days when the market or stock moves down. It looks for instances of rising volume that should correlate with price movement, but price movement has not occurred; additionally, OBV can be used to confirm lag. Continue reading...
The Ease of Movement (EMV) indicator measures the degree to which prices can be moved by a lower volume of trading. It was developed by Richard Arms, inventor of the Arms Index, which also attempts to quantify the relationship between price movements and volume. High positive values indicate a present tendency for prices to increase on low volume, and larger negative values indicate that prices are slipping lower but with relatively low trade volume. Continue reading...
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) helps traders consider the influence of volume on prices. VWAP is calculated by taking the average of prices from a time period and dividing it by the trading volume for the current day. Traders use VWAP to confirm trends and decide whether to take long or short positions, while large institutions are likely to use VWAP to avoid disrupting market prices, finding the liquid and illiquid price points and trading so as not to move prices away from the averages. Continue reading...
Market Breadth is a descriptor that is used in several market indicators such as the daily breadth, the A/D Line, the McClellan Oscillator, and Arms Index. Breadth is the relative difference in the amount of advancing stocks and declining stocks. Daily breadth is simply computed by subtracting one from the other, or creating a ratio in which one is divided by the other. Daily breadth is closely related, even interchangeable, with the Advance/Decline ratio. It can also refer to the difference between New Highs and New Lows, or Net New Highs. Continue reading...
Market indexes attempt to give an overall picture of the behavior of the market by tracking the performance of a representative sample of stocks. Different indexes have different focuses. The Russell 3000 samples more of the smaller companies than the S&P 500. Index mutual funds and ETFs track specific indexes but, as you’ll notice in their disclosures, it is impossible to invest directly in an index; they only follow the index by investing in as many of the companies as possible and minimizing lag as much as they can. Indexes give numerical values for the progressive fluctuations in the price action for specific sets of stocks. Continue reading...
Richard Arms invented the analysis tool that bears his name in 1967. The Arms Index, a technical analysis indicator, is also called the TRIN (short for “Trading Index”) because it seeks to indicate overbought or oversold conditions by serving as an index of trading activity relative to price. The Arms index is calculated using readily available data from major indexes such as the S&P 500 or NASDAQ. The ratio of the number of advancing stocks (stocks whose prices are increasing) to the number of declining stocks (stocks whose prices are decreasing) is computed to give us the A/D Ratio, a market breadth indicator that is one way of viewing the daily breadth of a security. The Advance/Decline Ratio uses the same numbers as the Advance/Decline Line but presents them as a ratio instead. The AD Ratio is sometimes more useful than an AD Line, including in instances where comparing AD for different indexes which have different metrics; the ratio is the standardization with which comparisons can be made. Continue reading...
Open interest is a measurement of the outstanding open positions in a derivative security. Strong open interest means the derivative will have high liquidity. Open Interest is not the same thing as Trading Volume, but it does give an indication of liquidity and activity in a derivative. Open Interest is the number of open positions for a derivative, like an option. The Options Clearing Corporation tallies up the ‘open interest’ numbers, but they are not posted until the morning following the count. Open Interest isn't necessarily indicative of a bullish or bearish forecast for the underlying security, but it does generally mean that the option will have high liquidity and that a seller will be able to find a buyer. Continue reading...
The MSCI ACWI is the “All Country World Index” - providing the broadest measure for global stocks. The MSCI ACWI tracks performance of stocks from all over the world - literally. It includes all markets and gives the broadest picture for how world stocks are performing. Developed markets account for some 75% of total global output, so the MSCI ACWI includes many countries that are not necessarily palatable contributors to world growth. Continue reading...
A long position in a security means owning shares and having a positive investment balance in a stock, bond, commodity, etc. This is done by simply buying and owning the investment. An investor with a long position in a stock will benefit financially when the price of the stock rises. What is a Short Position? What is Short Selling? Continue reading...
To be “long” means to own a security, and to essentially be bullish on it. A long position is to own a security and to expect it to appreciate. When people buy stocks, they are “long” those stocks. Listening to fund managers giving market commentary, you may hear them say they are “long” on China or Industrials or Apple Inc., and this means that even though they may have hedged their position with some “short” sales, their outlook for those markets is optimistic and their bullish bets outweigh their bearish ones. Continue reading...
The Short Interest Ratio (SIR) measures investor sentiment for a given company and is calculated using the number of shares being shorted divided by the average daily trading volume of the stock. Also called the short ratio or float short, the SIR is a ratio of the number of shares being shorted divided by the average daily trading volume for the stock over the last 30 days. The ratio can be interpreted as the number of days it takes short sellers to repurchase borrowed shares, or an approximation for the number of shares that have been sold short and not yet covered as a percentage of all trading volume. Continue reading...
Taking a short position is selling a security that you don’t own because you anticipate that its value is set to fall. In simple terms, an investor that takes a short position is betting against it. “Shorting” is the opposite of being “long” in a security, where being “long” means to actually own it and to wait for it to appreciate. When you contact your broker or custodian to take a short position on a security, you essentially sell shares you don’t own, and then after a period, you have to return those shares to the custodian. Continue reading...
The main idea behind index investing is that markets are efficient, and, especially with the low fees of indexed funds, it can be a winning strategy. Index investing is a simple strategy of choosing the indices which reflect your investment beliefs and offer diversification, buying mutual funds or ETFs that track these indices, and holding them for a long period of time. The last 10 years have seen the propagation of index funds for any specific market, industry, country, commodity, etc. Continue reading...
Index futures are futures contracts written on an index in which a large position can be held with a relatively small margin requirement. Index futures can be used for hedging or speculation. A "good faith" initial margin deposit (also called a performance bond) of a fraction of the contract size is all that is required to hold a substantial position, with a notional value worth significantly more than the amount invested. Continue reading...
Market momentum is the tendency of a trend to continue in one direction or another. Various analysis methods and indicators seek to identify the strength of trends and to find points of possible reversals and retracements. A market has strong momentum when trading volume is up and confirms the direction of price movement in the market. Bullish or bearish market sentiment will influence the degree of momentum that is present. Continue reading...