Bubbles form in markets when there is such a large amount of demand that it drives prices up to levels where it is no longer supported by inherent value. Bubbles have effects on an interconnected web of economic forces and institutions. It was postulated before 2008 that the housing market could not form a bubble in the same way the stock market could, but the subprime meltdown proved those theorists wrong. Bubbles are when a market suffers from unnatural price inflation due to speculation, bandwagon investing, and, to some extent, misinformation. Continue reading...
Sometimes a stock or index will reflect prices that have become inflated or overvalued in the short-term as a result of bullish conditions. In some cases, due to shift in sentiment or a negative news story in the headlines, stocks may retreat suddenly and without notice. A market correction is a sharp, sudden decline in stock prices, where they fall in value by around 10% - 20% over a short period, usually no longer than 6 months. Corrections are frequent occurrences (typically an average of once a year) and are a normal and healthy part of equity investing. Continue reading...
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that it is impossible to beat the market consistently over time, since all available information is priced efficiently into stock prices. But what the EMH misses is the impact that sentiment can have on price discrepancies in the short-term. Emotions can lead to gross mis-valuations (as we saw with the tech bubble in 2000), and market corrections can see stocks selling off dramatically for no fundamental reason. Continue reading...
Most mortgages require that an appraisal or at least inspection is done before any loan is made. There are exceptions to this, in the form of no-appraisal mortgages which are available to lower-income homeowners, qualifying members of the military and its veterans, and some farmers. Most no-appraisal loans are through federal programs such as HARP, FHA, and the VA. The purpose of these loans is to keep people in their homes and to keep the economy relatively stable. These are generally not first mortgages, but are relief, modification, and refinancing arrangements to qualifying homeowners that already have a mortgage outstanding. Continue reading...
When a mortgage loan is made to a consumer, the bank or loan institution is the mortgagee, while the consumer is the mortgagor. Mortgages are long term loans secured by the real property of the individual borrowing the money, and they are generally used for homes, called home mortgages. The lending institution, which might be a bank or a mortgage company, is the mortgagee, lending money to the homebuyer, who is the mortgagor. Continue reading...
HASP came into being in 2009 in response to the housing market crash that made life very difficult for many Americans. Also known as the Making Home Affordable Plan. It called for the creation of various programs and support for lending institutions, consumers, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Program (HASP) has three main parts. Part one is to aid responsible homeowners who are suffering from falling home prices and have become underwater on their mortgages. Continue reading...
Real estate has long been used as an alternative investment, to give investors a non-correlated asset that can give a portfolio increased diversification. In the last 15 years or so, with the prevalence and popularity of REITs and real estate industry funds, real estate investments are considered by some to be a core holding instead of an alternative investment. Real Estate investments are so accessible now that they should be considered an indispensable part of any portfolio. Continue reading...
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is to lenders what FDIC insurance is to savers; it protects lending institutions from mortgage defaults. By protecting lenders, the FHA was begun with the intention to stimulate the housing market. The FHA was established in 1934 in an effort to stimulate the construction and purchase of new homes by offering insurance protection to the institutions (banks and mortgage companies) who make mortgage loans. Continue reading...
The Federal Housing Finance Association is the Conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since the 2008 meltdown. The FHFA was established as an independent government entity to oversee the secondary mortgage market. The FHFA is a regulatory agency which took over for the Federal Housing Finance Board and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). It was created in 2008 by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA), and it oversees the operations of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and the 11 federal home loan (FHL) banks. If you’ll recall, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide liquidity to banks and transfer risk from them by buying their mortgage cash flows from them. Continue reading...
Markets have been around for much longer than most people think. The Tulip bubble happened in the 1500's! In the last decade of the 1500’s, Tulips were brought to Holland from Constantinople by botanist Carolus Clusius. Within a few years, the Tulips began to spread through Holland like wildfire, becoming luxury goods. As demand rose to astronomical levels, prices skyrocketed along with it. Eventually, people would gain and lose entire fortunes on the beautiful (but not that beautiful) plants. Of course, the actual value of the tulip bulbs was nowhere near the thousands of dollars (if the amounts were converted into today’s standards) that the traders paid for them. Eventually, people began to sell their invaluable tulip bulbs for real cash, and a domino effect ensued. Continue reading...
The late 1990’s saw a huge uptick in the number of tech startups, as the age of the Internet took hold and new companies scrambled for a share of the action. As more and more people began to access the world (wide web) of information, new technology companies became more and more abundant in an effort to tap the commercial potential of having a global customer base. This led to excessive valuations of companies that didn't even yet have earnings, as investors poured money in hoping for the "next big thing." Continue reading...
The latest housing bubble burst in 2005, a few years prior to the stock market meltdown. Housing prices peaked in 2005, and over-leveraged homeowners started to feel the pinch of falling property values leading into the 2008 financial crisis. In the 2005 - 2012 period, housing prices fell some 30-80% in various parts of the U.S. Problems emerged when the loans outstanding on homes exceeded the home's value, and when job losses eventually resulted in mass defaults. Continue reading...
The South Sea Company was created in Britain in the 18th Century, by the British government. The purpose of the company was to conduct trade with South American colonies belonging to Spain. The company quickly became a popular investment instrument among British nobility, but the frenzy quickly grew to gigantic proportions as trade picked up, but it wasn't sustainable. The bubble burst a few years later. Continue reading...
Bubbles, while both intriguing and puzzling occurrences, have always been a part of market and economic cycles. In short, a bubble forms when investors start bidding up the price of an asset well beyond its intrinsic value, based on speculation and euphoria surrounding potential gains. Eventually demand will dry up when valuations are too high, as investors start shunning the risk premium associated with investing. Investors will then race to be the first out of the position, and it ultimately brings all the sellers to the table at once. The bubble then pops. Continue reading...
In the rapidly evolving landscape of business and technology, certain terms become synonymous with specific eras and phenomena. One such term is "dotcom," which carries with it a legacy of innovation, exuberance, and eventual downfall. In this article, we delve into the world of dotcoms, exploring their definition, historical significance, and iconic company examples. Continue reading...
Net sales are the amount of sales that will actually be counted towards a company’s bottom line, meaning they account for goods returned or damaged goods. If a good is fully delivered to a customer and any return policy is expired, the good can be booked as a net sale for the company. Therefore, net sales gives a more accurate picture of the actual sales generated by the company, or the money that it expects to receive. Continue reading...
Liar loans are a term that refers to loans or mortgages that were granted with little or no request for qualification documentation, such as proof of income. On certain low-documentation loan programs, such as stated income/stated asset (SISA) loans, income and assets are simply stated on the loan application. Then there are still other loan programs known as no income/no asset (NINA) loans, where the applicant essentially does not have to provide any proof of eligibility. These types of loans opened the door for fraudulent lending practices, which ultimately bankrupted several mortgage companies during the 2008 financial crisis. Continue reading...
Speculation, often viewed with skepticism, is a crucial facet of the financial landscape. It's a realm where high risks meet the allure of significant rewards. Speculators, far from being mere gamblers, play a vital role in shaping markets, providing liquidity, and supporting young industries. This guide delves deep into the essence of speculation, from its impact on stock and currency markets to its influence on global economic trends. Whether you're an investor or just curious about the financial world, understanding speculation is key. Dive in to unravel the intricacies of this high-stakes game and its undeniable impact on the world of finance. Continue reading...
A bull is an investor who holds a positive outlook on the market, a specific security, or an industry, anticipating that their chosen asset will experience a rise in value. These optimistic individuals purchase securities under the belief that they can sell them later at a higher price, thereby reaping a profit from the anticipated price increase. In this article, we'll delve into the traits and strategies of bullish investors, discuss the market mentalities of bulls versus bears, examine characteristics of bull markets, address risk mitigation techniques, and explore examples of bullish behavior in historical contexts. Continue reading...
Dive into the world of hindsight bias, a cognitive phenomenon that often skews our perception of past events. This deep exploration sheds light on the psychology behind this bias, its implications in the realm of investments, and practical strategies to counteract its effects. Whether you're an investor, a student of psychology, or simply curious about human behavior, this guide offers a comprehensive understanding of how hindsight bias shapes our decisions and perceptions. Equip yourself with the knowledge to navigate the complex interplay of memory, overconfidence, and decision-making, and make more informed choices in the future. Continue reading...