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What does hypothesis testing mean?
A theory about what will happen and why is a hypothesis, and to prove the hypothesis has some relevancy it will have to be compared to the probability of getting those results by pure chance. A hypothesis is a testable prediction of results that should be observed due to the effects of an independent variable. Such predictions must be tested against the probability of the resulting observations happening due to complete chance instead of the influence of the independent variable. Continue reading...
Is there such a thing as the “January effect?”
The January Effect is a hypothesis which states that stocks will see their biggest monthly gains in January. The January Effect states that the stock market usually increases during the first few days in January, or that the largest monthly gains of the year will be realized in January, therefore January will set the pace. There are many explanations for this effect, such as tax-loss selling in December, fresh starts after the New Year, and many others. Continue reading...
Is there such a thing as the “NFL effect?”
The “NFL Effect” suggests that the outcome of the Super Bowl can foretell market behavior. Some market statisticians have analyzed the correlation between the behavior of the stock market and the winner of the Super Bowl, and suggest that the DJIA will go up or down depending on whether the winner was from the AFC conference or the NFC conference. While the Super Bowl indicator has been right 33 times out of 41, to serious investors, this correlation does not imply causality. You can find lots of other time-series which are also strongly correlated to the stock market performance, such as the number of sunny days in the previous year. Continue reading...
What is the adaptive market hypothesis?
The Adaptive Market Hypothesis uses theories of behavioral economics to update the aging Efficient Market Hypothesis. There have been many debates surrounding the Efficient Market Hypothesis and its validity, and a lot of research over the last 15 years or so has been done which suggests that behavioral finance holds many of the keys to an accurate “universal theory” of the markets. A marriage between the two schools of thought has given birth to the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, coined in 2004 by Andrew Lo of MIT. Behavioral and evolutionary principals come into play when theorizing about the large-scale behavior and adaptation of humans in a system. Continue reading...
What is “efficient market hypothesis”?
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that it is impossible to beat the market consistently over time, since all available information is priced efficiently into stock prices. But what the EMH misses is the impact that sentiment can have on price discrepancies in the short-term. Emotions can lead to gross mis-valuations (as we saw with the tech bubble in 2000), and market corrections can see stocks selling off dramatically for no fundamental reason. Continue reading...
What is a bull market?
Bull markets are defined as periods of sustained investor confidence and market growth, as prices trend higher and indexes rise over time. These stretches are typically tied to economic growth and strength. When investor sentiment is “bullish,” investors are generally willing to take more risk. These extended periods of growth typically last for months but can last for years. There are more technical definitions of a bull market, depending on which index, commodity, and other asset is being considered. As a general rule, however, bull markets tend to see stocks rise by 20% in response to a 20% decline, before eventually declining by 20% again to signal the end of the bull run. The longest bull run in S&P 500 history took place from March 2009 to March 2020, experiencing well over 300% growth over that time. Continue reading...
What is market efficiency?
Market efficiency describes the degree to which relevant information is integrated into the price of a security. With the prevalence of information technology today, markets are considered highly efficient; most investors have access to the same information with prices and industry news, updated instantaneously. The Efficient Market Hypothesis stems from this idea. Efficient markets are said to have all relevant information priced-in to the securities almost immediately. High trading volume also makes a market more efficient, as there is a high degree of liquidity for buyers and sellers, and the spread between bid and ask prices narrows. Continue reading...
What are Common Questions about Stocks?
People tend to focus on the mystery of the ‘get-rich-quick’ stock market when they start asking questions about stocks, but there are also good questions among them. The question most people have is, “Can I get rich just buying low and selling high?” And the answer, of course, is “Yes, absolutely!” The caveat, however, is knowing when the stock price is low and when it will peak. In stock investing it is often said that hindsight is 20/20, so it is infinitely easier in retrospect to identify times when someone should have bought or sold shares and reaped the maximum possible gains from their investment. Continue reading...
What is the Risk/Return Trade-Off
There are investments which have the potential for very high returns, but they will always be that much riskier than the lower-yielding alternatives, and this is part of the risk/return trade-off. The relationship between risk and return is a positive linear relationship in most theoretical depictions, and if an investor seeks greater returns, he or she will have to take on greater risk. This is called the risk/return trade-off. For more stability and less risk, an investor will have to sacrifice some potential returns. Continue reading...
Is there any merit to technical analysis of the markets?
Securities in the market can be analyzed on technical levels or fundamental ones, and it is generally best to take both into account, despite the fact that some theories dispute the merits of technical analysis. Some might say that fundamental analysis is all that you need to make wise investment decisions, and to some extent that is actually correct: at a minimal level, if all you had were fundamentals, you could make wise investment decisions. That does not mean, however, that all technical analysis is superfluous. Continue reading...
How Do I Find the Best Mutual Fund?
It requires a great deal of due diligence, but investors should understand that past performance is not indicative of future performance. Focus on experience. In the stock market, as with most things in life, hindsight is 20/20. There are countless lists on the internet with titles like “The Best Mutual Fund Families” and “50 Winning Mutual Funds.” It is important to understand that the names on those lists are a function of hindsight and not foresight. Continue reading...
What is the black swan theory?
The Black Swan Theory serves as a reminder to investors that unpredictable events can radically change our lives, society, and the markets. The Black Swan Theory, based on a recent book by Nicholas Nassim Taleb called “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” analyzes how events that were completely unexpected, or perhaps considered impossible, radically changed the world. Historical events such as the attacks of September 11th, 2001 and the invention of the personal computer are categorized as Black Swans: they were unforeseeable, and their enormous impact on human civilization was only explainable in hindsight, according to Dr. Taleb himself. Continue reading...
What is Dividend Capture?
Dividend capture is a strategy similar to dividend arbitrage that seeks to reap incremental gains somewhat reliably around the ex-dividend date of a stock. The investor seeks to benefit from the fact that stock prices don’t always go down as much as they should on the ex-dividend date, so by selling quickly at that point, the investor may still get a small gain from the dividend that will still be paid to him or her. Dividend capture is a strategy that plays on slight inefficiencies in prices around the ex-dividend date. Continue reading...
How Do You Accept Bitcoin Payments for Your Store?
Several services make it easy to accept bitcoin payments, or a programmer can help you set up your own node. The most convenient way to accept bitcoin payments as a merchant is to use the services made available by exchanges like Coinbase and Bitpay, who make it simple enough to add a button to your website and to accept payments in person via NFC and QR codes. These exchanges have established what is called Full Nodes on the blockchain, which are slightly more efficient than using regular client software on the blockchain, and have optimized them for merchant services. Continue reading...
What is a Bill of Sale?
A Bill of Sale is essentially a trumped-up receipt, unless you are in England. A Bill of Sale is a document affirming that the rights of ownership of an asset have been transferred from one party to another, in exchange for “full consideration,” which is another word for compensation or payment. A receipt from a retail transaction can be considered a Bill of Sale, but a full-fledged bill of sale should accompany large transactions like car sales and so on. The British definition of Bill of Sale, however, is somewhat different. Continue reading...
How to Trade Moving Averages: The Death Cross?
The Death Cross is the inverse of a Golden Cross: a chart pattern occurring when a security’s short-term moving average crosses underneath its long-term counterpart, typically followed by an increase in trading volume. A death cross, which like a golden cross most commonly uses long-term 50-day and 200-day moving averages to detect the pattern, usually signifies an incoming bear market to traders. Continue reading...
What is the Descending Triangle (Bullish) Pattern?
The Descending Triangle pattern is formed when the price of a security establishes a support level (1, 3, 5) and bounces off that level to a declining resistance level, creating a down-sloping top line (2, 4). The breakout can either be up or down, depending if the resistance or highest support level is broken first. This pattern is commonly associated with directionless markets since the contraction (narrowing) of the market range signals that neither bulls nor bears are in control. Continue reading...
What is the Profit Rate for the Ascending Triangle (Bullish) Pattern?
The Ascending Triangle pattern forms when the price of a security tests a resistance level and creates a horizontal top line (1, 3, 5), with an upward-sloping bottom line (2, 4) formed by a rising support level. The breakout can either be up or down, and it will determine whether the target price is higher or lower. This pattern is commonly associated with directionless markets, since the contraction (narrowing) of the market range signals that neither bulls nor bears are in control. When the price of a security consolidates around a certain level, it may indicate growing investor confidence for a significant uptrend. Continue reading...
What is the Symmetrical Triangle Top (Bullish) Pattern?
The Symmetrical Triangle Top pattern forms when the price of a security fails to retest a high or low and ultimately forms two narrowing trend lines. The price is expected to move up or down past the triangle depending on which line is broken first. The price movement inside the triangle should fill the shape with some uniformity, without leaving large blank areas. This pattern is commonly associated with directionless markets since the contraction (narrowing) of the market range signals that neither bulls nor bears are in control. However, there is a distinct possibility that market participants will either pour in or sell out, and the price can move up or down with big volumes (leading up to the breakout). Continue reading...
What is the Symmetrical Triangle Bottom (Bullish) Pattern?
The Symmetrical Triangle Bottom pattern forms when the price of a security fails to retest a high or a low and ultimately forms two narrowing trend lines. As the support and resistance levels consolidate, it forms a triangle (15). Symmetrical Triangles are characterized by the upper line sloping downward and lower line sloping upward. The price movement inside the triangle should fill the shape with some uniformity, without leaving large blank areas. Continue reading...