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What is market psychology?
Market psychology is the overarching sentiment of investors toward the stock market, and also their tendency as a group to pile-on in certain situations whether or not it is rational behavior and to exhibit other idiosyncrasies. Market psychology usually comes into conflict with the efficient market hypothesis tenet that investors are rational. Behavioral finance and the study of market psychology has become a more relevant topic in the last 30 years or so since more main street investors are influencing prices in the market. If you have taken a psychology course, you will know that sometimes people behave in ways that are incongruent with what they believe or what is rational. Continue reading...
What is the adaptive market hypothesis?
The Adaptive Market Hypothesis uses theories of behavioral economics to update the aging Efficient Market Hypothesis. There have been many debates surrounding the Efficient Market Hypothesis and its validity, and a lot of research over the last 15 years or so has been done which suggests that behavioral finance holds many of the keys to an accurate “universal theory” of the markets. A marriage between the two schools of thought has given birth to the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, coined in 2004 by Andrew Lo of MIT. Behavioral and evolutionary principals come into play when theorizing about the large-scale behavior and adaptation of humans in a system. Continue reading...
What is a Market Maker?
A market maker is a broker-dealer firm or a registered individual that will hold a certain number of shares of a security in order to facilitate trading. There could be as many as 50 market makers for one particular security, and they compete for customer order flows by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. The market maker spread refers to the difference between the amount a market maker is willing to pay for a security and the amount that the other party is willing to sell it. Continue reading...
Is there such a thing as the “January effect?”
The January Effect is a hypothesis which states that stocks will see their biggest monthly gains in January. The January Effect states that the stock market usually increases during the first few days in January, or that the largest monthly gains of the year will be realized in January, therefore January will set the pace. There are many explanations for this effect, such as tax-loss selling in December, fresh starts after the New Year, and many others. Continue reading...
Is there any merit to the momentum theories?
The momentum theory has many fans for its useful and relatively simple nature. The momentum theory basically states that markets which are moving either up or down for some period of time cannot suddenly reverse their course. Utilizing these strategies means jumping on a freight train, riding it for a short period of time, and jumping off before it stops and reverses direction. It is hard to argue with the this one, but it may be hard to find momentum strong enough for an investor’s taste in certain market environments, which might mean spending too much time on the sidelines, and due to the frequent active trading involved, the investor will incur fees and be susceptible to emotions and media hype. Continue reading...
What is market disruption?
Market disruption is a term that describes the state of affairs when the status quo of the stock market or a particular industry’s market is destabilized. This could include the entry of what’s called a disruptive technology or new competitive company, or a natural disaster, or technical difficulties with the computer network that the exchanges use. It is also commonly used to refer to a panic or mania that makes the market disorderly and is stemmed through the use of circuit breakers. Continue reading...
What is Dividend Capture?
Dividend capture is a strategy similar to dividend arbitrage that seeks to reap incremental gains somewhat reliably around the ex-dividend date of a stock. The investor seeks to benefit from the fact that stock prices don’t always go down as much as they should on the ex-dividend date, so by selling quickly at that point, the investor may still get a small gain from the dividend that will still be paid to him or her. Dividend capture is a strategy that plays on slight inefficiencies in prices around the ex-dividend date. Continue reading...
What is a market-maker spread?
The difference between the Bid and Ask prices on a stock or other security are known as the Spread. Designated market makers are traders whose job it is to make a market for securities, by offering to buy or sell shares, and thus creating liquidity, often at the same time. Their money is made on the spread. In highly liquid markets, the spread will shrink. So if everyone is buying and selling the same stock one day, there may be virtually no spread between the Bid and the Ask price, and this is seen as efficient. Continue reading...
What Does Mark to Market (MTM) Mean?
Mark to Market (MTM) is an accounting method meant to price an asset by its most recent market price. An example would be mutual funds, whose “NAV” price is a mark to market price of how much the mutual fund closed for at the end of a trading session. The mark to market accounting method has some pros and cons. On the pro side, if an asset is very liquid, then MTM will provide an accurate reflection of its current value. Continue reading...
What is adaptive selling?
Adaptive selling is a sales and marketing principal where the product or services offered are framed or actually modified based on the preferences or demographics of the audience or client. Adaptive selling requires the ability to customize a shopper’s experience as they interface with the real or virtual storefront. The sales system leaves room to learn about the customer and to adopt the language and products offered based on changing interpretations of the customer. This may require a well-trained sales representative or a well-designed computer algorithm, as has been implemented on some e-commerce sites. Continue reading...
Is there such a thing as the “NFL effect?”
The “NFL Effect” suggests that the outcome of the Super Bowl can foretell market behavior. Some market statisticians have analyzed the correlation between the behavior of the stock market and the winner of the Super Bowl, and suggest that the DJIA will go up or down depending on whether the winner was from the AFC conference or the NFC conference. While the Super Bowl indicator has been right 33 times out of 41, to serious investors, this correlation does not imply causality. You can find lots of other time-series which are also strongly correlated to the stock market performance, such as the number of sunny days in the previous year. Continue reading...
What is market research?
Market research is the process of evaluating a possible opportunity for entering into a market with a new product or company, or for evaluating the effectiveness of a product or company in a market that they are already invested in. Market research can also be important for decisions regarding mergers and acquisitions. It may involve surveys and market study groups. Sometimes a company will conduct its own market research, but often third-party companies are hired for the task. These companies may specialize in sampling and surveying methods for consumer groups, and/or statistical analysis of a business model or product’s chance of success in a given market. Companies may look to such analysts if they are considering a merger or acquisition, or of launching a new product. Continue reading...
What is market efficiency?
Market efficiency describes the degree to which relevant information is integrated into the price of a security. With the prevalence of information technology today, markets are considered highly efficient; most investors have access to the same information with prices and industry news, updated instantaneously. The Efficient Market Hypothesis stems from this idea. Efficient markets are said to have all relevant information priced-in to the securities almost immediately. High trading volume also makes a market more efficient, as there is a high degree of liquidity for buyers and sellers, and the spread between bid and ask prices narrows. Continue reading...
What is a market-on-open order?
Traders can enter time-specific trade orders in the form of opening or closing orders, which are only to be executed as close to the opening or closing price as possible. Market-on-open orders are looking to buy or sell immediately after the market opens, at the opening price. Market-on-open orders are instructions for a broker or floor trader (even though we don’t see those much anymore these days) to buy or sell shares at opening price of the stock being traded. Continue reading...
What is market saturation?
Market Saturation is the point at which there are few consumers that are still interested in buying a product because those who were ever likely to already have done so. Saturation can be said to exist for all similar products in a market. This may call for different strategies which could keep a company going. One is that products can be made to wear out after a certain amount of time and need replacement. Another is that the business can shift its focus to subscription or service-based income. Continue reading...
What is market share?
Market share is the percentage of the total amount of similar products sold in a marketplace that are constituted by a particular product or the products of a particular company. This sometimes used synonymously with the term Market Penetration. Most industries have many competitors offering essentially the same services and products; in fact that is a sign of a healthy capitalistic marketplace. The market share of a company is the proportion of the total sales in that industry that belong to their company. Continue reading...
Can Technical Indicators Decipher Market Psychology?
Understanding the psychological state of the market is akin to deciphering the collective sentiments and behaviors that drive market trends. The intricate interplay of emotions, biases, and human instincts underpins the market's movements, often deviating from rationality assumed by traditional economic models. Can technical indicators decode this intricate market psychology? Continue reading...
What is market exposure?
Market exposure is the degree to which an investor is participating in the risks and returns of the market as a whole or a particular sector. Exposure can have a positive or negative connotation, but, as they say, “nothing ventured, nothing gained.” Market exposure allows an investor to participate in the potential upside of the market, but can also subject the investor to the inherent risks. Some people save money religiously but are not likely to retire the way they want to because they aren’t willing to let their money be risked in the market. Continue reading...
Are the markets efficient?
The concept of an efficient market is more applicable today than it was when it was conceived, a truly efficient market is nearly impossible. The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that random new information will affect the value of securities, and that new information disseminates so quickly among rational investors that it is futile to try to beat the “market portfolio.” Thirty years ago, this was more of a theory than an observable phenomenon, and plenty of inefficiencies in the dissemination of information and the pricing of securities could be pointed out. Continue reading...
What Is Market Capitalization?
Market capitalization is a measure of a company’s size, in terms of the value of its total outstanding shares. Most readers have probably heard of large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks. These classifications are based on the market capitalization of a company, which is defined as the number of a company's outstanding shares multiplied by the price of one share. For example, if company ABC issued 1,000 shares and it is trading at $10/share, then the market capitalization of company ABC is 1,000 x 10 = $10,000. The largest company by market capitalization as of the time of this writing is Apple Inc. Its market capitalization exceeds $750 billion. Continue reading...