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What is the October Effect?

What is the October Effect?

The October Effect, also known as the Mark Twain Effect, is an anecdotally-founded fear that markets are vulnerable to catastrophe in the month of October. Several Octobers have appeared to be the origin of problems in the market: in 1929 at the onset of the Great Depression, the 1987 crash, and in 2008 at the start of the Great Recession. Perhaps superstitiously, many people expect October to be the worse month of the year for the market, supposing that if something bad were going to happen, it would happen in October. Statistically, there isn't much support for this idea. Continue reading...

What is triple witching?

What is triple witching?

Triple witching hour is when three types of derivatives expire at once, which happens once every quarter in the US. It typically results in irregular or volatile movements in the markets. When stock market index futures, stock market index options and stock options all expire at the same time, the hour before close is called the Triple Witching Hour. This occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December in the United States between 3:00 PM and 4:00 PM Eastern time. Continue reading...

Is there such a thing as the “January effect?”

Is there such a thing as the “January effect?”

The January Effect is a hypothesis which states that stocks will see their biggest monthly gains in January. The January Effect states that the stock market usually increases during the first few days in January, or that the largest monthly gains of the year will be realized in January, therefore January will set the pace. There are many explanations for this effect, such as tax-loss selling in December, fresh starts after the New Year, and many others. Continue reading...

Is there such a thing as the “NFL effect?”

Is there such a thing as the “NFL effect?”

The “NFL Effect” suggests that the outcome of the Super Bowl can foretell market behavior. Some market statisticians have analyzed the correlation between the behavior of the stock market and the winner of the Super Bowl, and suggest that the DJIA will go up or down depending on whether the winner was from the AFC conference or the NFC conference. While the Super Bowl indicator has been right 33 times out of 41, to serious investors, this correlation does not imply causality. You can find lots of other time-series which are also strongly correlated to the stock market performance, such as the number of sunny days in the previous year. Continue reading...

Is there any truth to saying “sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yom Kippur?”

Is there any truth to saying “sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yom Kippur?”

Since September is historically a lackluster month in the stock market, it can make sense to follow this modern proverb. There is an old saying on Wall Street, which stipulates that you should sell your positions on Rosh Hashanah (the Jewish New Year, which comes usually in September or October), and establish a new position on Yom Kippur (Jewish Day of Atonement), which usually comes a week later. Continue reading...

What is the Hindenburg omen and is there any merit to it?

What is the Hindenburg omen and is there any merit to it?

The Hindenburg Omen is technical indicator meant to predict bear markets, sell-offs, and declines. It is named after the famous tragedy of the Hindenburg Zeppelin in Germany on May 6th, 1937. The “Omen” identifies several very complex technical patterns in the behavior of the NYSE, such as the number of new highs, new lows, and some other indicators. It claims to predict market crashes within a very short period of time (about 40 days). Continue reading...

What is the black swan theory?

What is the black swan theory?

The Black Swan Theory serves as a reminder to investors that unpredictable events can radically change our lives, society, and the markets. The Black Swan Theory, based on a recent book by Nicholas Nassim Taleb called “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” analyzes how events that were completely unexpected, or perhaps considered impossible, radically changed the world. Historical events such as the attacks of September 11th, 2001 and the invention of the personal computer are categorized as Black Swans: they were unforeseeable, and their enormous impact on human civilization was only explainable in hindsight, according to Dr. Taleb himself. Continue reading...

Is there such a thing as the “pre-holiday effect?”

Is there such a thing as the “pre-holiday effect?”

Pre-Holiday price fluctuations have been observed in many instances, but there a difference of opinion as to whether the markets are higher or lower just before holiday. Pre-Holiday Seasonality is the idea that prices will rise or fall before a holiday weekend in which the market will be closed for a day. When researching this phenomenon you may find colloquial wisdom stating that prices always rise before a holiday, but in actuality most of the evidence points the opposite direction: prices are most likely to close lower the day or two before a holiday weekend, and may remain low the day after the holiday, but this provides a possible opportunity to ride the upswing. Continue reading...

Is there such a thing as a “presidential election cycle” impact on stocks?

Is there such a thing as a “presidential election cycle” impact on stocks?

Some analysts have popularized the notion that the 4-year presidential election cycle holds secrets to bear and bull markets. Found in publications such as the Stock Traders Almanac, The Presidential Election Cycle is the theory that different phases of the presidential term are correlated to broad market conditions. As will many such theories, it may not hold up under a lot of scrutiny, but there are some correlations to be found. Continue reading...

Top Stocks and the Income Inequality Theme in Retail: A Comprehensive Analysis

In the diverse world of retail, the Income Inequality Theme (IIT) stands out for encompassing a broad spectrum of companies catering to various consumer segments. This theme is particularly relevant in times of economic fluctuation, where consumer preferences and spending patterns can shift dramatically. Continue reading...