Investors tracking the energy sector frequently group U.S. independent refiners together, yet these three companies offer distinct risk and reward profiles. This stock comparison examines HF Sinclair (DINO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and PBF Energy (PBF) across business models, recent momentum, valuation, and market positioning. The comparison is most relevant for energy-focused traders and investors weighing scale and stability against higher-beta exposure to refining margins, and for those evaluating how sector-wide catalysts translate differently across companies of varying size and balance-sheet strength.
HF Sinclair (DINO) is a diversified downstream energy company operating seven refineries concentrated in the Mid-Continent, Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Northwest, with a combined processing capacity of roughly 678,000 barrels per day. Beyond refining, its lubricants and specialties, renewables, marketing, and midstream segments help reduce the earnings cyclicality associated with pure refining. In recent weeks, the stock has participated in the broader refining-sector rally driven by tighter global capacity and low refined-product inventories. Management has pointed to constrained supply and resilient fuel demand as supportive of margins into 2027. A recent leadership transition, with a new president and chief operating officer named while a temporary chief executive remains in place, has drawn some investor attention. The company's lubricants segment has also provided a differentiated source of earnings stability.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the largest independent refiner in the United States, with a national network of refineries and roughly 3 million barrels per day of capacity. Its ownership stake in the midstream partnership MPLX provides a steadier cash-flow stream that partially offsets refining volatility and supports a substantial share-repurchase program. Recent market activity has reflected investor confidence in the company's scale, above-peer operating margins, and ability to convert strong cash flow into buybacks. Analysts have highlighted MPC's momentum in commercial performance and its free cash flow yield as favorable within the group. The company's diversification across geographies and integrated logistics lowers its exposure to any single regional margin shock, a factor that has supported relatively consistent relative performance during periods of both margin strength and weakness.
PBF Energy (PBF) is a smaller independent refiner operating a portfolio of complex refineries across the East Coast, Midwest, and West Coast. Its more concentrated asset base and comparatively higher leverage make it more sensitive to swings in refining margins, which translates into higher volatility and a higher beta relative to DINO and MPC. In recent weeks, PBF has been among the more responsive names to recovering crack spreads, reflecting its leverage to the margin cycle in both directions. The company trades at a lower earnings multiple than its larger peers, a discount that reflects both its smaller scale and its less-diversified cash-flow profile. Its operating margins have been thinner during weaker periods, which can amplify downside when refined-product prices soften.
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of the platform's AI-driven trading bots. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of statistics. Because only the strongest and most relevant strategies for current market conditions earn placement in this curated section, it serves as a useful starting point for traders looking to filter a large universe down to the bots best suited to today's environment. The featured robots span varied approaches, from swing trading to longer-horizon trend-following, allowing users to match a bot to their own risk tolerance. Explore the Trending AI Robots to review the currently highlighted strategies.
The clearest contrast among the three is scale and diversification. MPC combines the largest refining footprint with meaningful midstream cash flow, giving it the most stable earnings base and the strongest buyback capacity. DINO sits in the middle, offering downstream diversification through lubricants and renewables that partially smooth refining cyclicality, while its geographic concentration adds some regional risk. PBF offers the greatest torque to refining margins but also the least cushion, with higher leverage and thinner margins during downturns.
On valuation, PBF trades at the lowest earnings multiple, reflecting higher perceived risk rather than a straightforward bargain. DINO carries a lower enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA, a measure comparing a firm's total value to its operating earnings) ratio than MPC, though MPC's premium is supported by its larger scale and steadier free cash flow. Growth drivers differ: MPC leans on buybacks and midstream integration, DINO on lubricants, renewables, and margin capture per barrel, and PBF on cyclical leverage to recovering crack spreads. Risk factors also diverge, with balance-sheet strength and regional exposure the key differentiators.
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, scale, and cash-return capacity, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MPC as the most favorably positioned of the three in the current environment. The company's diversified cash flows, integrated midstream segment, and demonstrated ability to sustain buybacks provide a more consistent trend profile than its smaller peers. DINO would likely rank as a stable intermediate option given its differentiated lubricants and renewables businesses, while PBF would be viewed as the highest-beta, most margin-sensitive choice. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current observable positioning rather than a definitive forecast.
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
DINO's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 295 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 223 of the 295 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DINO as a result. In 57 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +0.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DINO advanced for three days, in 240 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DINO moved out of overbought territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 29 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 60 cases where DINO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DINO turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DINO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
DINO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DINO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.114) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (11.661) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.134) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.665) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for MPC moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 25 of the 39 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 64%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 57 cases where MPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 49 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
MPC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 269 of 348 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.761) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (15.898) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in 264 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 245 of 315 cases where PBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 35 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 83%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PBF as a result. In 61 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PBF turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
PBF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.466) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (6.850) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
DINO | MPC | PBF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 90 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 87 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 3 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 21 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 1 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 83 | 82 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (46) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (65) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (87) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PBF's stock grew similarly to DINO’s and somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (9) in the null industry, and is in the same range as PBF (28) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to DINO’s and similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as DINO (48) in the null industry. This means that MPC's stock grew similarly to PBF’s and similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DINO (34) in the null industry. This means that MPC's stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s and somewhat faster than DINO’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (82) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (83) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry, and is in the same range as DINO (90) in the null industry. This means that PBF's stock grew similarly to MPC’s and similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
| DINO | MPC | PBF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 10 days ago 77% | 11 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 78% |
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DINO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MPC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and PBF’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DINO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s), and PBF’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
DINO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -1.91% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -3.70% , and PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price fluctuated -8.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +37.01%.
DINO is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DINO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DINO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DINO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 100% | -2.59% | ||
| MPC - DINO | 80% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| VLO - DINO | 79% Closely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| PBF - DINO | 77% Closely correlated | -2.81% | ||
| DK - DINO | 76% Closely correlated | -3.11% | ||
| PSX - DINO | 75% Closely correlated | -1.88% | ||
More | ||||
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | -2.81% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 79% Closely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| DK - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -3.11% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -5.34% | ||
More | ||||