Key Points
- Longest Government Shutdown Ends: After 43 days, the longest government shutdown in US history ended on November 12 when President Trump signed a funding bill, bringing relief to markets and millions of federal workers.
- Market Rotation Accelerates: The Dow (DIA) reached new record highs near 48,000, while the Nasdaq (QQQ) tumbled 2.3% as investors rotated from technology to blue-chip and value stocks.
- SoftBank's Strategic Pivot: SoftBank (SFTBY) dumped its entire $5.8 billion Nvidia (NVDA) stake to fund a $30 billion commitment to OpenAI, marking a dramatic shift in the tech giant's investment strategy.
- Gold's Safe-Haven Rally: Gold (GLD) soared above $4,200 per ounce as investors sought safety amid market uncertainty and rising rate-cut expectations.
- Disney's Streaming Struggles: Disney (DIS) shares plummeted 7.8% after posting a revenue miss of $22.46 billion versus expectations of $22.78 billion, with legacy TV networks continuing to deteriorate amid cord-cutting pressures.
- CoreWeave's Infrastructure Challenge: CoreWeave (CRWV) dropped 8% despite beating revenue expectations, citing data center construction delays that will impact fourth-quarter performance.
- Bitcoin's Volatility: Bitcoin (BTC.X) surged back above $106,000 early in the week before stumbling below $96,000 by week's end, reflecting broader market sentiment swings.
Overview
The week of November 10-14, 2025, marked a pivotal transition for financial markets as the end of the longest government shutdown in US history—lasting 43 days from October 1 to November 12—initially catalyzed broad-based optimism. However, this relief quickly gave way to anxiety as investors grappled with the reality of missing economic data and reassessed valuations across technology and growth-oriented sectors. The week demonstrated sharp market rotation dynamics, with equity indices following divergent paths: the Dow and blue-chip stocks surged to record highs, while the Nasdaq and artificial intelligence-related names faced significant selling pressure. Corporate earnings, geopolitical considerations, and shifting investor sentiment toward risk assets created a complex landscape characterized by heightened volatility and strategic repositioning across major asset classes. By week's end, the momentum had reversed sharply as investors confronted concerns about elevated valuations, missing inflation and employment data, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path heading into its December meeting.
Financial Markets Weekly Recap
Equities
Market Indices: The Dow (DIA) reached new all-time highs near the 48,000 mark on multiple occasions throughout the week, driven by optimism surrounding the government shutdown's resolution and a rotation into large-cap, dividend-paying stocks. The S&P 500 (SPY) initially benefited from shutdown relief but subsequently shed 1.7% during mid-week trading as pent-up economic data concerns weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq (QQQ) experienced more pronounced volatility, initially jumping more than 1% when shutdown worries faded but ultimately declining sharply—dropping 2.3% by week's end—as investors dumped high-valuation technology stocks. The Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed, gaining as investors rotated into value and small-cap names away from mega-cap technology holdings. The week encapsulated a major shift in market dynamics, with risk appetite fading and defensive positioning accelerating.
Sector Performance: Technology stocks led the week's decline, with semiconductor companies particularly hard hit following SoftBank (SFTBY) announcement that it had liquidated its entire $5.8 billion position in Nvidia (NVDA) in October. Nvidia shares fell approximately 4.18%, sliding from $193.81 to $185.71 as the divestment signaled a shift in investor appetite away from artificial intelligence plays and raised questions about valuation sustainability in the sector. Broadcom (AVGO) declined 5.65% to $335.16, also pressured by similar valuation concerns and competitive dynamics in the semiconductor space. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 2.28% as the broader tech correction took hold. Conversely, financial and defensive sectors demonstrated relative strength throughout the week. Healthcare and industrials attracted capital flows as investors sought more stable, value-oriented investments. The Russell 2000 (IWM) gained as traders repositioned toward names with lower valuation multiples and reduced dependency on continued economic growth.
Corporate Highlights:
- SoftBank (SFTBY): The Japanese technology giant revealed it had completely exited its Nvidia (NVDA) position by selling all 32.1 million shares in October, realizing $5.8 billion in proceeds. The company's CFO Yoshimitsu Goto stated the proceeds were essential to fund the company's expanded OpenAI commitments, which total approximately $30 billion annually. SoftBank's stock tanked 10% on the news in Tokyo trading, reflecting investor concerns that the divestment signals weakness in AI chip demand and represents a missed opportunity, particularly given that SoftBank had sold a similarly-sized Nvidia stake in 2019 for just $3.6 billion—shares that would be worth over $150 billion today. The company nonetheless reported stellar second-quarter earnings with net profit more than doubling to $16.6 billion, boosted substantially by valuation gains in its expanding OpenAI holdings.
- CoreWeave (CRWV): The AI infrastructure provider reported third-quarter revenue of $1.36 billion, crushing Wall Street's forecast of $1.29 billion, alongside adjusted operating income of $217.15 million that exceeded the $177.2 million estimate. Despite these impressive top-line results, CoreWeave's stock shed 8% in after-hours trading after management disclosed that a third-party data center developer was running significantly behind schedule in building new capacity. The delay will financially impact the fourth quarter and prompted the company to lower full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion, down from the previously communicated $5.15 billion to $5.25 billion. The backlog of contracted work nonetheless surged to $55.6 billion from $30.1 billion the previous quarter, driven by major new deals including a $14 billion compute agreement with Meta (META), an expanded partnership with OpenAI, and a $6.3 billion deal with Nvidia (NVDA) for unused cloud capacity. CEO Michael Intrator acknowledged CoreWeave's position as "the essential cloud for AI has never been stronger," but the data center buildout delays underscored systemic industry challenges in rapidly scaling infrastructure.
- Disney (DIS): The entertainment conglomerate's stock plummeted 7.8% following the release of mixed fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results. While Disney posted an adjusted earnings per share of $1.11, exceeding the $1.02 consensus estimate, the company reported revenue of $22.46 billion that fell short of Wall Street's $22.78 billion forecast. The revenue miss reflected continued deterioration in Disney's traditional entertainment segment, which declined 6% year-over-year to $10.21 billion, driven by accelerating cord-cutting, underperformance in the theatrical film slate, and a 21% plunge in operating income at the company's TV networks to just $391 million. The weakness was exacerbated by an ongoing carriage dispute with YouTube TV that began October 31, costing the company approximately $30 million weekly in lost revenue, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. CEO Bob Iger signaled the company remains ready for a "challenging battle" over compensation, declaring Disney had offered YouTube TV a deal "equal to or better than what other large distributors have already agreed to." On a brighter note, Disney's streaming segment posted 39% growth in operating income to $352 million, with Disney+ reaching 131.6 million subscribers and Hulu achieving 64.1 million customers. The company also announced a 50% increase in its dividend to $1.50 per share and doubled its share buyback authorization to $7 billion for fiscal 2026. Notably, Disney indicated it would cease reporting streaming subscriber metrics going forward, following Netflix's lead and prompting questions about slowing growth momentum in the streaming business.
- Nvidia (NVDA): The artificial intelligence semiconductor leader faced intense selling pressure throughout the week, declining approximately 4.18% from $193.81 to $185.71. The primary catalyst was SoftBank (SFTBY) public announcement that it had liquidated its entire $5.8 billion Nvidia stake in October, signaling a potential retreat from AI chips among sophisticated investors. Additional headwinds included intensifying concerns about elevated valuations in the sector, tightened US export restrictions to China—which accounts for roughly 20% of Nvidia's revenue—and increased competitive pressure as hyperscalers including Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOGL) develop proprietary AI chips to reduce reliance on external vendors.
Currencies
US Dollar: The US dollar maintained strength throughout most of the week, supported by safe-haven positioning amid market uncertainty and rising Treasury yields. Traders pared back rate-cut expectations as consensus shifted toward the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance, with the CME FedWatch tool pricing in roughly a 51% probability of a rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting versus higher probabilities earlier in the month. The dollar index remained elevated as investors sought refuge in the world's reserve currency amid global market volatility.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen strengthened moderately against the US dollar as traders digested mixed signals regarding monetary policy divergence. The Bank of Japan's patient stance on interest rate adjustments, combined with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent commentary suggesting future rate hikes remained a possibility, provided underlying support to the yen. The pair faced resistance as the market awaited critical US economic data following the government shutdown.
EUR/USD: The euro traded under modest pressure as European monetary policy remained accommodative relative to the evolving US stance. The widening interest rate differential, combined with broad dollar strength and risk-off sentiment, weighed on the euro's performance throughout the week.
Commodities
Gold (GLD): Precious metals demonstrated remarkable strength throughout the week, rallying for the seventh consecutive trading day as investors embraced safe-haven assets amid elevated market uncertainty. Gold prices soared above the $4,200 per ounce level by week's end, up sharply from around $4,080 at the week's beginning. The rally was propelled by multiple factors: persistent rate-cut expectations despite the Fed's hawkish communication, weak labor market signals that fueled recession fears, the federal government shutdown ending without resolving underlying economic data collection concerns, and broad risk-off sentiment driving portfolio rotation toward defensive assets. The precious metal's sustained rally underscored its enduring appeal as an insurance policy against systemic risks and currency debasement.
Oil (USO): Crude oil prices remained relatively stable throughout the week, with traders balancing concerns about slowing economic growth against persistent supply discipline maintained by major producers. While geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions to global oil supplies provided underlying support, the material rally seen in previous weeks moderated as demand concerns offset production constraints.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC.X): The world's largest cryptocurrency demonstrated pronounced volatility throughout the week, initially surging back above $106,000 early in the period as traders rushed to "buy the dip" following earlier weakness. However, this rally proved ephemeral, as Bitcoin subsequently languished below $96,000 by week's end, reflecting broader losses of risk appetite and rotation away from speculative assets toward traditional safe havens. The cryptocurrency's gyrations mirrored equity market dynamics, with sharp reversals in sentiment leading to amplified price swings and liquidations across leveraged positions.
Ethereum (ETH.X): The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization followed Bitcoin's trajectory, initially participating in early-week recovery attempts before succumbing to sustained selling pressure. Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin highlighted diminishing risk appetite for more speculative digital assets as investors de-risked portfolios ahead of critical economic data releases and Federal Reserve communications.
Policy Developments and Economic Implications
Government Shutdown Resolution: After consuming 43 days from October 1 through November 12, 2025—officially becoming the longest federal government shutdown in US history—President Donald Trump signed a funding bill at 10:24 PM EST on November 12. The bipartisan agreement was brokered by Senators Jeanne Shaheen, Maggie Hassan, and Angus King and passed the Senate 60-40 on November 10 and the House 222-209 on November 12. The funding deal extends through January 30, 2026, but notably does not include Democrats' primary objective of extending Affordable Care Act tax credits set to expire December 31, 2025. The shutdown resulted in the furlough of over 1.4 million federal workers, many of whom went without multiple paychecks, disrupted critical government functions including food assistance programs, and delayed or potentially eliminated crucial economic data releases.
Missing Economic Data: The White House acknowledged that the October Consumer Price Index and employment report may never be released due to the disruption to data collection during the shutdown. The monthly unemployment rate survey of 60,000 households was conducted mid-month when the government was shuttered, and significant portions of inflation data collection depend on physical store visits and household surveys that were cancelled. This unprecedented data disruption has created substantial uncertainty for the Federal Reserve as it approaches its December 9-10 policy meeting, complicating the central bank's ability to assess economic conditions and calibrate monetary policy appropriately.
Federal Reserve Policy Path: Markets have reassessed rate cut expectations in light of the post-shutdown uncertainty and hawkish communications from Federal Reserve officials. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices in a 51% probability of a December rate cut versus higher probabilities recorded earlier in the month. Fed officials have signaled caution regarding additional rate reductions, suggesting the central bank may maintain its current neutral policy stance pending improved clarity on economic growth and inflation dynamics.
Market Outlook
As markets transition into the final weeks of 2025, investors will be closely monitoring several critical developments:
- Economic Data Recovery: The resumption of economic data releases will provide critical insight into labor market health, inflation dynamics, and consumer spending patterns following the shutdown-related disruption. Any weakening in economic momentum could reignite rate-cut expectations and support equities, particularly high-growth technology names.
- Federal Reserve Meeting: The December 9-10 Fed meeting represents a pivotal event for markets, with particular focus on whether policymakers will cut rates, maintain the current level, or signal future policy adjustments. Current expectations reflect significant uncertainty given the missing October economic data.
- Technology Sector Valuations: The rotation away from mega-cap technology stocks and artificial intelligence plays suggests investors are reassessing whether current valuations can be sustained in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Earnings quality and profitability metrics will likely take on heightened importance relative to revenue growth.
- Safe-Haven Demand: The sustained rally in gold and reduced appetite for risk assets indicates investors remain concerned about macroeconomic stability and are maintaining defensive postures. This sentiment could persist until economic clarity improves and the Fed provides clear forward guidance.
- SoftBank's Strategic Repositioning: The company's complete exit from Nvidia (NVDA) and massive commitment to OpenAI signals broader skepticism about concentrated AI hardware bets and potential recognition that valuations may have become stretched. This strategic pivot may influence broader institutional positioning in the AI sector.
The week of November 10-14, 2025, has effectively reset market dynamics, transitioning from optimization around government shutdown resolution toward deeper concerns about valuations, economic data reliability, and Federal Reserve policy direction. The sharp rotation from growth to value, combined with safe-haven inflows into gold and defensive sectors, underscores a market that has recalibrated its risk assessment and is preparing for a more uncertain investment environment heading into year-end and 2026