The AI Trade Is Undergoing a Massive Reversal: Tickeron AI's 15 Stocks in 3 "AI At Risk" Sectors Set to Become AI's Next Winners

Key Takeaways

• The Kobeissi Letter reports that the AI Beneficiaries Index relative to the AI At Risk Index has fallen 46% from its late-2025 peak to near its lowest level since early 2025, the largest relative drawdown on record for AI's presumed winners versus its presumed victims.
• The price tape is more nuanced than the headline: an equal-weight basket of the four named AI Beneficiaries (NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MSFT) is still +55.6% year-to-date, while the three named AI At Risk names (ADBE, CRM, NOW) are -18.1%. The reversal is real at the margin, not yet in the full-year scoreboard, and that gap is exactly where the opportunity sits.
• Software is leading the turn: the IGV software ETF is +43.0% off its April 10 low and back to +1.0% YTD, and Goldman Sachs' software-versus-semiconductors indicator just logged its second-best day ever (BTCC, citing Goldman Sachs).
• Tickeron AI ranks three sectors most likely to rise next: (1) Application and Enterprise Software, (2) IT Services and Consulting, and (3) Financial Data, Analytics and Information Services. Equal-weight YTD returns are -24.5%, -34.9%, and -25.6%, with average upside to analyst price targets of +16.8%, +13.2%, and +34.8%.
• Of the 15 stocks below, Tickeron AI forecasts 13 to move higher over the next month and flags two, ADBE and GLOB, as likely to lag before their longer-term targets come into play.
• Tickeron's AI Trading Bots weight these three sectors up because institutional momentum is rotating into them. Tickeron's Financial Learning Models (FLM) then read each ticker's own trend, separating names already breaking out (CRM, NOW) from deep-value names still basing (SPGI, TRI, VRSK).

What the Reversal Actually Means

For most of 2025 the market sorted AI into two clean buckets. The first was the builders: semiconductors, tech hardware, and the capital-goods companies wiring AI data centers. The second was the victims: software and commercial-services companies whose seat-based and labor-based business models AI was expected to cannibalize. UBS data show how extreme that split became. Its AI Winners basket returned 44% in 2025 while its AI At-Risk basket fell 33%, and the pattern carried into early 2026 (Harbor Capital, citing UBS).

The Kobeissi Letter's framing is that the market is now reassessing those labels. Investors are looking past AI capex and asking which companies can turn AI into productivity gains and revenue growth. Software has gone from being seen as "AI's biggest casualty" to increasingly being treated as an AI beneficiary itself.
 

Three catalysts have driven the shift in September:

• Earnings that disproved the "SaaSpocalypse." On August 27 Salesforce had its best day since August 2020 after raising full-year revenue guidance to $46.1 to $46.4 billion. Marc Benioff said "This is not the SaaSpocalypse," and Guggenheim's John DiFucci called the fatal AI bear case on software "a hallucination" (Streamline Feed). Snowflake jumped 22% on September 2 after beating estimates and raising product-revenue guidance (CNBC).
• The "pace the frontier" debate. After Anthropic's Dario Amodei called for slowing frontier-model development and OpenAI and Microsoft followed with their own commitments, markets repriced AI as two separate trades. Capital-hungry builders are exposed to a slower buildout, while enterprise software vendors gain time because the worst-case disruption timeline moves further out. On September 14, ServiceNow rose 7.4% and IGV rose 5%, while SOXX fell 5.6% and Broadcom fell 4.8%. Morningstar described the old "negative on software, positive on hardware" trade as "turned on its head" 
• A momentum-factor rotation. Goldman Sachs told top clients that its AI theme basket is down nearly 45% from its peak, and that short-term momentum is leaving semiconductors for software. Goldman expects the next momentum rebalance to add software longs, cover software shorts, and trim semis (BTCC, citing Goldman Sachs).

One important caution belongs in any retail-trader read of this chart. The rotation is not a straight line. Earlier in September, Salesforce, Intuit and ServiceNow sold off after OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release revived disruption fears). Several analysts also describe the rerating as "deferred disruption, not disproved disruption".

The Data Retail Traders Need

AI Beneficiaries vs. AI At Risk: The Scoreboard

Prices are as of the September 22, 2026 close. YTD is measured from the December 31, 2025 close.

What the table tells a retail trader:

• The builders still own 2026. The Beneficiaries basket is +55.6% YTD versus -18.1% for the At Risk basket. AMD alone is +191.3%, and SOXX is +89.0%. The 46% relative drawdown Kobeissi describes is measured from the late-2025 peak on a different index construction, so it should not be read as semis having collapsed in absolute terms.
• Leadership is fragmenting inside AI hardware. AVGO is -26.4% below its 52-week high and only +5.2% YTD, and MSFT is just +3.0%. The "AI Beneficiary" label no longer guarantees outperformance.
• Software has already made the first move. IGV is +43.0% off its April low, consistent with CNBC's report that the sector is up nearly 40% from its "SaaSpocalypse" bottom (CNBC). Most individual "AI At Risk" names are still deeply negative YTD, which is the catch-up runway the Tickeron screens target.

Sector Scoreboard: Tickeron AI's Three Sectors to Watch

The ranking is not simply "most upside first." Software ranks first because it has the strongest confirmed trend: earnings beats, analyst target raises, and a Goldman-flagged momentum rotation. Information services has the most upside on paper but the weakest one-month tape. The AI treats that as an earlier-stage setup that needs price confirmation.

Sector 1: Application and Enterprise Software

Why Tickeron AI expects it to rise next: This is the epicenter of the reversal. Software was the most crowded short in the 12-month momentum factor, and Goldman now expects momentum baskets to add software longs and cover software shorts (BTCC, citing Goldman Sachs). Jefferies' Brent Thill argues that "systems of record, proprietary data and sticky workflows remain durable moats" and that frontier labs are more likely to partner with leading vendors than to replace them (CNBC). The group is -24.5% YTD on an equal-weight basis.

ServiceNow — NOW

ServiceNow trades at $137.00, -10.6% YTD but +65.1% above its April 10 closing low of $83.00, and +6.6% over the past month. Tickeron's AI picks NOW as the leader of the software reversal because it has the strongest analyst conviction in the group: 19 analysts, 89.5% bullish, with a Strong Buy consensus and an average target of $150.84 (+10.1% upside; high target $248.00). Its workflow platform is the kind of "system of record" analysts now describe as an AI moat rather than an AI casualty. The stock rose 7.4% on September 14 as the hardware-versus-software trade flipped (Yahoo Finance/StockTwits). Next-month forecast: Up. FLM reads a series of higher lows since April, with target raises from Cantor, Needham and BTIG in September confirming the trend.

Salesforce — CRM

Salesforce trades at $233.28, -11.9% YTD but +11.5% over the past month and +55.4% above its June 22 low. It is the strongest one-month performer among the software picks. The AI selected CRM because it offers the clearest evidence that agentic AI is adding demand rather than destroying it: management raised full-year revenue guidance to $46.1 to $46.4 billion, and the stock had its best day since 2020 (Streamline Feed). It also trades at a modest 21.3 P/E. Dreamforce is the next catalyst (Ad-hoc News). 19 analysts are 73.7% bullish, with an average target of $290.37 (+24.5% upside). Next-month forecast: Up.

Workday — WDAY

Workday trades at $188.23, -12.4% YTD and -5.9% over the past month, but it remains +67.3% above its April 10 low. The AI likes WDAY as a system-of-record play on HR and finance data, the proprietary data layer analysts argue frontier labs will partner with rather than replace. Workday was also among the names that led the rotation out of semis into SaaS (Yahoo Finance). 22 analysts are 50.0% bullish, with an average target of $209.64 (+11.4% upside). Next-month forecast: Up. FLM treats the past month's pullback as a retest inside a larger uptrend from the April low.

Intuit — INTU

Intuit is the deepest-value name in the software group and the highest-risk call. The stock trades at $292.35, -55.9% YTD and -20.3% over the past month, and it sits -58.5% below its 52-week high. The AI keeps INTU on the list because the selloff has compressed the stock to a 17.7 P/E, and it has the largest upside to target in the group: $369.76 on average (+26.5%), with a high target of $500.00 from 17 analysts, 52.9% bullish. Intuit posted solid fiscal-year results before September's GPT-6 Astra scare hit the stock (Yahoo Finance/StockTwits). Next-month forecast: Up, with high volatility. FLM flags a mean-reversion setup, not an established uptrend.

Adobe — ADBE

Adobe is the poster child of the "AI At Risk" basket. It trades at $238.25, -31.9% YTD and -13.5% over the past month. At a 13.3 P/E it is the cheapest stock in the software group, and the average target of $266.06 implies +11.7% upside. Sentiment is the weakest in the group, however: only 29.4% of 17 analysts are bullish, and the consensus is Hold. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight in July. The AI includes ADBE as the group's deep-value re-rating candidate if creative-software AI monetization shows up in earnings. Next-month forecast: Down. FLM reads the trend as still negative after a sharp one-day drop on September 22, and the stock needs to reclaim its September highs before the reversal thesis applies.

Sector 2: IT Services and Consulting

Why Tickeron AI expects it to rise next: IT services firms were priced as the purest labor-substitution victims of AI. The group is -34.9% YTD on an equal-weight basis, the worst of the three sectors. The rerating logic is that enterprises need integrators to deploy, secure, and govern AI agents, and the "pace the frontier" debate has created a new AI-safety services market. Accenture is the proof point: it and Anthropic will each invest at least $1 billion in AI safety over five years, with Accenture embedding evaluators to red-team and test models (Investopedia).

IBM — IBM

IBM trades at $231.38, -21.9% YTD and -1.8% over the past month, and +12.4% off its July 22 low. The AI ranks IBM first in the group because it combines consulting with a software and hybrid-cloud franchise. That mix gives it exposure to both sides of the "AI adopter" trade. It also has the strongest analyst support in the sector: 15 analysts, 73.3% bullish, with an average target of $259.87 (+12.3% upside). Next-month forecast: Up. FLM reads a base forming since the July low, with the flatter one-month tape pointing to consolidation rather than distribution.

Accenture — ACN

Accenture trades at $183.72, -31.5% YTD but +47.6% above its June 30 low. Trefis separately measured a 43% rebound from June 18 to September 18 (Trefis). The AI picks ACN because of a hard catalyst: the $1 billion Anthropic AI-safety partnership, followed by fiscal fourth-quarter results on October 1 (Investopedia). At a 14.7 P/E, the stock prices in plenty of disruption. 15 analysts are 60.0% bullish, with an average target of $194.60 (+5.9% upside). Next-month forecast: Up. The earnings print is the swing factor, and FLM rates the post-deal trend as constructive.

Cognizant — CTSH

Cognizant trades at $58.68, -29.3% YTD but +51.5% above its June 30 low, at a low 12.6 P/E. The AI selected CTSH as a cheap, high-beta way to play the services rerating. Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating and raised its target on September 18. The consensus average target is $62.00 (+5.7% upside) across 12 analysts, 50.0% bullish. Next-month forecast: Up.

EPAM Systems — EPAM

EPAM trades at $111.54, -45.6% YTD and -49.9% below its 52-week high, but it is +46.7% above its June 22 low and +1.1% over the past month. That makes it the only IT-services pick with a positive one-month trend. The AI favors EPAM's engineering-heavy mix, which is closer to building AI products than to the labor-arbitrage work AI replaces. 11 analysts are 45.5% bullish, with an average target of $118.27 (+6.0% upside). Next-month forecast: Up.

Globant — GLOB

Globant trades at $35.01, -46.4% YTD and -11.6% over the past month, and it sits -51.4% below its 52-week high. The average target of $47.62 implies +36.0% upside, the highest in the IT-services group, but conviction is thin: only 38.5% of 13 analysts are bullish. The AI includes GLOB as the group's highest-beta recovery candidate if services demand re-accelerates. Next-month forecast: Down. FLM reads no confirmed turn yet, and the stock has not joined the rebound its larger peers have made.

Sector 3: Financial Data, Analytics and Information Services

Why Tickeron AI expects it to rise next: This is the "commercial services" half of the AI At Risk basket: data, ratings, analytics and research vendors whose content was supposed to be commoditized by large language models. The group is -25.6% YTD and -10.4% over the past month on an equal-weight basis, the weakest short-term tape of the three sectors. It also has the largest average upside to analyst targets, at +34.8%. The bull case matches Jefferies' view of software: proprietary data is a moat, and AI models need licensed, authoritative data to be useful in regulated workflows (CNBC). The AI ranks this sector third because it is the laggard most likely to catch up if the software rerating broadens.

S&P Global — SPGI

S&P Global trades at $402.44, -23.0% YTD and -6.7% over the past month. It is the only stock in this report with unanimous analyst support: all 13 analysts rate it bullish (100.0%), with a Strong Buy consensus and an average target of $523.77 (+30.1% upside). The AI selected SPGI because credit ratings, benchmark indices and commodity pricing are regulatory-grade data that AI models consume rather than replace. Next-month forecast: Up. FLM reads the stock as basing near its June lows, with the gap between price and the unanimous target being the widest conviction signal in the screen.

Equifax — EFX

Equifax trades at $159.78, -26.4% YTD and -17.0% over the past month, only +5.2% above its June 25 low. The AI likes EFX's proprietary consumer-credit and employment data, which is exactly the kind of dataset AI underwriting models need. 13 analysts are 84.6% bullish, with a Strong Buy consensus and an average target of $219.92 (+37.6% upside). Wells Fargo trimmed its target on September 22 but kept an Overweight rating. Next-month forecast: Up, with low conviction. The one-month downtrend has to stabilize first, and FLM rates this a value entry rather than a momentum entry.

Verisk Analytics — VRSK

Verisk trades at $171.94, -23.1% YTD and -8.3% over the past month. The AI selected VRSK because its insurance-claims and risk databases are decades deep and hard to replicate, and because it already sells AI-driven analytics on top of that data. 12 analysts are 50.0% bullish, with an average target of $232.00 (+34.9% upside). Next-month forecast: Up.

Thomson Reuters — TRI

Thomson Reuters trades at $95.66, -28.6% YTD but +25.0% above its June 22 low. At +44.4%, it has the largest upside to the average target ($138.18) of any stock in this report. The AI picks TRI because legal, tax and news content with professional-grade provenance is where AI is being layered on top of, not substituted for, trusted data. 11 analysts are 54.5% bullish. Next-month forecast: Up. FLM reads the higher low above the June trough as an early trend-reversal signal.

Broadridge Financial — BR

Broadridge trades at $163.02, -27.0% YTD but +20.4% above its June 29 low, at a 16.9 P/E. The AI favors BR because its proxy, investor-communications and trade-processing infrastructure is embedded plumbing for Wall Street. That is a "sticky workflow" in the Jefferies sense and a direct beneficiary if AI raises trading and communications volumes. 6 analysts are 50.0% bullish, with an average target of $206.67 (+26.8% upside). Next-month forecast: Up.

How Tickeron's AI Trading Bots and FLM Read This Setup

Tickeron's AI Trading Bots start at the sector level. They measure where institutional money is rotating and weight exposure toward the groups gaining relative strength, rather than treating every "AI stock" as one trade. In this cycle, the bots detected the rotation Goldman Sachs describes: momentum leaving semiconductors and flowing into software, which had been the most-shorted group in the 12-month momentum factor. That is why Application and Enterprise Software ranks first. IT Services and Information Services rank second and third as the next layers of the same "AI At Risk" basket, likely to catch up if the rerating broadens.

Tickeron's Financial Learning Models (FLM) then work at the individual-ticker level. They read each stock's own trend pattern: higher lows versus lower lows, distance from the year's low, one-month momentum, and trend persistence. FLM is why the forecasts above are not uniform. CRM, NOW and EPAM show positive one-month trends and earn clean "Up" calls. INTU and EFX are rated Up with caution flags as mean-reversion setups. ADBE and GLOB get "Down" calls because their own trends have not yet confirmed the sector-level reversal the bots are detecting.

In practice, traders can use the two layers together. The bots answer which sectors to own. FLM answers which tickers within those sectors are ready now and which are still on the watch list.

Bottom Line

The AI trade is not ending. It is being re-sorted. The builders still dominate the 2026 scoreboard, with the Beneficiaries basket +55.6% YTD, but the marginal dollar is moving toward companies that can monetize AI rather than just build it. Earnings beats, the frontier-pacing debate, and Goldman's momentum rotation have all pointed in the same direction this month. Tickeron AI's 15 picks across software, IT services, and information services are the most direct way to position for that re-sorting, with +16.8%, +13.2% and +34.8% average upside to analyst targets across the three sectors. The main risk to watch is a fresh frontier-model release that revives disruption fears, the same trigger that knocked software lower earlier in September.

 

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Tickeron's AI-generated forecasts and stock selections are based on historical and current market data but do not guarantee future performance. Always conduct independent research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Prices as of the September 22, 2026 close. Published September 22, 2026.

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