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What is a time spread?
A ‘Time Spread,’ also called a Calendar Spread or a Horizontal Spread, involves the use of multiple options of the same type (either all calls or all puts), with the same strike price but different expiration dates. Generally traders will sell a near-term option (take a short position) and buy a far-term option (take a long position). The strategy is virtually identical whether calls or puts are used. Continue reading...
What is a Calendar Spread?
A calendar spread is a strategy also known as a horizontal spread or time spread, in which the investor uses two options contracts, with the same strike price, on the same underlying security, but with different expiration dates. The trader will “write” (sell) the near-term one (front month) and hold the one with the more distant expiration date (back month) long. This is a debit spread, since the investor will pay more to establish this position than is received from the short sale of the near-term option: longer-term options have a greater time value than short-term options. Continue reading...
What is Volatility?
Volatility is a measure of the variance, deviation, or movement of a stock. Volatility is all the extra movement of a stock or other security over and above (and below) a line of averages. Put another way, it is a measure of how many changes in price, and by how much, a security experiences over an amount of time. Computations of Standard Deviation and Variance are measures of the degree of volatility which exists in the movement of a stock. Volatility will also be measured relative to a benchmark index, and the degree to which a security adheres or deviates from the benchmark is called Beta. People will also trade on derivatives of the VIX, which is the volatility index of the S&P 500. Continue reading...
What are realistic expectations for my portfolio performance?
Realistically, you should not plan on getting more than about 10% average per year over the long term for a portfolio of diversified equity exposure and you should really plan on getting less than that to be on the safe side. Everybody wants to have a portfolio that outperforms the market when the markets are rising and does not lose money when the markets are falling. We have a secret for you – it’s not possible. Continue reading...
What is a Blue-Chip Stock?
A blue-chip stock generally refers to a publicly traded company that is very well-established and is in the top tier of market capitalization, usually in the tens of billions. There is no formal definition for what makes a company a blue-chip stock, but the general category includes some of the biggest and most household names available to trade. Companies like Johnson & Johnson, Walmart, Visa, Dow Chemical, and so on, that have been around for decades and have market capitalizations in the tens of billions. (click on the link for each company to see their current stock price) Continue reading...
What is a derivative?
A derivative is a security which monetizes the risk or volatility associated with a reference asset. Derivatives derive their value from speculation surrounding an underlying or reference asset. The reference asset could be another security, an interest rate, or an index, for example, but there are also derivatives based on future weather patterns. Derivatives come in many forms; examples include options, swaps, and futures. Some derivatives trade on exchanges and some are Over-the-Counter (OTC). Derivatives might be used for speculation or hedging. Continue reading...
How are option prices computed?
Option prices are decided by the buyers and sellers in the marketplace, but are tied closely to the amount of risk inherent in the agreed upon expiration date and strike price. Option prices change as the market factors in the relevant information. The main factor is the strike price. The closer an option’s strike price is to the actual market price of a security, the higher it’s price will be. Once it’s in-the-money, it has inherent value that makes it essentially the same price as the market security that underlies it. The expiration date of the contract is also a factor because if the expiration date is closing in, and the strike price is not quite close enough to the market price of the underlying asset, there is little chance that the option will be useful. Continue reading...
How volatile are commodities?
Commodities are more volatile than most assets. The supply-demand dynamics of commodities are continuously changing, and sometimes very rapidly. Different commodities will have different levels of volatility, of course. Some commodities are extremely volatile. For example, natural gas has had a volatility of almost 45% in some periods, and gold has experienced movements of 20-30% per year lately. Crude oil prices fell some 50% in 2015, as a global supply glut was met with weakening demand, particularly from China. Gold is actually on the less-volatile side of the spectrum for commodities. Silver, Nickel, and crude oil tend to be on the upper end of the spectrum along with exotic metals such as platinum and palladium. Continue reading...
What is the KAMA (adaptive moving average)?
The Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) was developed by analyst Perry Kaufman in an attempt to cancel out the noise of market volatility and inefficiency by using an efficiency ratio multiple. Kaufman’s algorithm is a bid to cancel out “noise” in the data used to create a moving average line. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is imperfect in part because of its reliance on historical data – if the data is not current, it tells traders nothing about how an asset may trend in the future. Some traders also believe that EMAs are biased by virtue of weighting recent data more heavily, which can lead to false signals and potential losing trades. Continue reading...
What is beta in investing?
Beta is a volatility indicator that denotes how closely an investment follows movements in the market as a whole; when examining mutual funds, it indicates how similarly the funds move to their relevant indexes. It is often referenced with its counterpart, Alpha; a risk ratio which measures gains or losses relative to a benchmark, indicating whether an investor is being compensated with a return greater than the volatility risk being taken. Continue reading...
How large are market fluctuations?
Fluctuations are represented in terms of volatility, and different types of investments experience different levels of volatility. The answer here depends on which market you’re talking about. Generally speaking, the capital markets in fixed instruments, such as government bonds, are the least volatile. Market fluctuations of the price of commodities, small-cap stocks, and emerging markets are the largest, and can be as high as 30-40% per year. Continue reading...
What Kinds of Overlays are Used in Chart Patterns?
Overlays are technical supplements which help to interpret the data of a normal price chart. Often a chart program will allow the user to pick a few different overlays at a time, to help him or her get a better idea of what is going on with the price. Some common overlays include moving average lines, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku clouds, and channel lines. An overlay or series of overlays will appear as additional lines, shading, or other graphics on a price chart. An overlay helps a trader or analyst interpret the price data in the context of other data, by putting the other data right on top of it. Continue reading...
What is market risk?
Market risk is the chance that an investment will not maintain its value when it is dependent on the many factors that influence the health of the economy and the stock market. Investors must be aware that investing money in a stock or mutual fund is to tie the fate of that money to the fate of the company or companies that they have invested in. The other side of the coin, of course, is the potential for gains. The potential gains of an investment are the premium that is paid to an investor in exchange for allowing a company or mutual fund to take risks with the investor’s money. Continue reading...
What was the "Flash Crash"?
On May 6, 2010, investors around the world were shocked when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1,000 points in a matter of minutes. The market recovered just as quickly, finishing the day down a much lesser 348 points. The so-termed "flash crash" was caused by a trader's technical errors in entering order amounts, which caused a few stocks to post erroneous numbers (notably Procter & Gamble, which showed a 37% loss, before recovering to a 2% loss on the day). Continue reading...
How do I Buy an ETF?
ETFs are widely available through brokers and online trading services. ETFs can be purchased in the same way that you might purchase stocks. ETFs are priced continuously during the day, and reflect the underlying basket of stocks comprising this ETF. The fees and commissions investors pay for purchasing ETFs are exactly the same as those for stocks. The market for ETFs is highly liquid, with substantial trading volume every day. As such, ETFs are readily available and easy to acquire, but it is important to remember that they are not quite as simple as individual stocks. Continue reading...
What is the VIX?
VIX is the ticker of the volatility index of the S&P 500. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index projects the volatility of the S&P 500 going forward by creating a composite of the volatility priced-in (implied) on various S&P 500 options. Since it is created using the prices of options, it serves as a gauge of market sentiment, and is often called the "fear gauge" since it will spike when the market plunges. Continue reading...
What is a covered straddle?
A covered straddle is a bullish options strategy, where the investors write the same number of puts and calls with the same expiration and strike price on a security owned by the investor. If an investor owns a stock and is bullish about where it’s price is headed, they may use a covered straddle strategy to provide them the ability to buy more shares at a set price (the call option portion of the straddle) while also giving them the option to sell the security at the same price (the put portion of the straddle). Continue reading...
How do I determine the right mix of assets?
Asset allocation tools and Monte Carlo simulators are available through broker-dealers and online services. You may wish to construct your own asset allocation, but there are asset allocation programs available which can take a lot of the uncertainty out of the process. The most famous method for analyzing and testing an allocation involves the so-called Monte Carlo simulation. This simulator helps you determine what would have happened with your portfolio if you were invested according to a particular mix of assets. Three main parameters you should consider for each asset class are: the asset’s historical performance, its volatility, and its correlation to other asset classes. Continue reading...
What is a commodity?
A commodity is usually a raw material or agricultural good which has an extremely high demand and very little price differentiation between competitors. If a good will not increase or decrease significantly in quality regardless of who brings it to market, and the demand is very high (such as for a good used in the production of many other products) it might be considered a commodity. Examples would be oil, silver, gold, steel and wheat, but a full list would be very extensive. Continue reading...
What are Small Cap Mutual Funds?
Mutual funds that invest heavily in companies that are small, but not micro-size, can be described as small cap funds. A small capitalization mutual fund primarily invests in small companies. Small companies are usually defined as companies with market capitalization of under $2 billion. The companies in this category are larger than those in the “micro” and “nano” cap categories. A mutual fund investing in small cap companies will generally experience higher price volatility than both mid cap and large cap mutual funds. Over time, small cap companies as a group have tended to outperform the broader market, so the higher risk is associated with higher return. Continue reading...