Instead of waiting for confirmation of reversal, “buying on weakness” means to go ahead and buy a long position (or cover a short position) while a stock is in the middle of a downtrend, in the hopes that it will reverse soon and the preemptive move will allow you to capture the entire upside. Upswings can happen very quickly, and failure to prepare for them can cost investors a lot of money. Buying on weakness is intended to put the investor in a position for maximum gains, as well as preventing losses on a short position. This is one part of the “buy on weakness / sell on strength” mantra, which is essentially the same thing as “buy low / sell high”. Continue reading...
Fibonacci Retracements are places where a Fibonacci lines and arcs. If a retracement has a length that proportionally fits within certain parameters in comparison to the uptrend that preceded it, some traders attempt to predict the size of the uptrend that will come afterwards using Fibonacci numbers. The most popular retracement percentages to use are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%. Fibonacci numbers are part of the Fibonacci sequence, where the two previous numbers are added together to calculate the next number in the sequence. The ratio of two Fibonacci numbers is the Golden Ratio, or 1.61803398875, which has been used since ancient times as the perfect proportion in architecture and other design. The Golden Ratio is also known as Phi (pronounced “fee”). Because Fibonacci numbers are found throughout the natural world, they have been integrated into some traders’ strategies for market analysis. Continue reading...
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. to measure asset momentum using price changes and the speed of those changes. Like stochastics, the RSI is an oscillator that reads between 0 and 100; in this case, the RSI calculation determines the ratio of upward and downward movement using 14 periods of data, then smooths it out so only strong trends approach 0 or 100. Traders traditionally interpret RSI values of 70 or greater as an indicator of an overbought asset, while values 30 or below indicate an asset has been oversold; higher or lower values (like 80 and 20) can be used to minimize the number of bought or sold readings. Continue reading...
Price movement often occurs in a range-bound way, even when an uptrend or downtrend is in effect. Fibonacci channels estimate support and resistance numbers using Fibonacci numbers, which are found throughout the natural world, in order to define possible places where reversals will occur. Fibonacci numbers are related to the study of chaos theory, which seeks to find order in complex systems. Since the markets have so many variables, but no lack of data, they are an excellent place to search for Fibonacci patterns. Continue reading...
Technical Indicators are charting tools that appear as lines on charts, or as other kinds of graphical information, which serve as guidelines for buying and selling opportunities. They are based on mathematical formulas, and may be called oscillators, trading bands, and signal lines, among other things. Technical analysts use information about price, volume, standard deviation, and other metrics to construct systems for trading using mathematical formulas which can be translated into useful charting tools. The systems can bring discipline to a trader’s strategy by providing clearly defined circumstances in which a trader has reason to buy, sell, hold, and so on. Continue reading...
Market indicators are quantitative tools for the analysis of market information, which may hint or confirm that a trend or reversal is about to happen (leading indicator) or has begun (lagging indicator). Indicators are technical analysis algorithms which give investors signals that may be used as the guidelines for trading. Indicators might be called oscillators or have various other proper names, since some of them are quite well-known, but there are general conventions or instructions for how to use an indicator, how it can be tweaked to suit the scope of your analysis, and what is considered a trade signal. Continue reading...
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a popular leading indicator introduced in the 1960s by Joe Granville. OBV is a line built using differences between daily trading volume – in Granville’s estimation, the major driver of market behavior – adding the difference on days that the market or stock moves up and subtracting the difference on days when the market or stock moves down. It looks for instances of rising volume that should correlate with price movement, but price movement has not occurred; additionally, OBV can be used to confirm lag. Continue reading...
An uptrend is a continuous upward movement in a stock's price. An uptrend is an upward movement over a few increments of time (whatever time increment being used), where the successive numbers being compared continue to increase. The parameters being compared might be just peaks, just troughs, closing prices, or averages, but formally it is defined as increased in successive peaks and troughs both. Continue reading...
People tend to focus on the mystery of the ‘get-rich-quick’ stock market when they start asking questions about stocks, but there are also good questions among them. The question most people have is, “Can I get rich just buying low and selling high?” And the answer, of course, is “Yes, absolutely!” The caveat, however, is knowing when the stock price is low and when it will peak. In stock investing it is often said that hindsight is 20/20, so it is infinitely easier in retrospect to identify times when someone should have bought or sold shares and reaped the maximum possible gains from their investment. Continue reading...
In Fibonacci line analysis, chartists attempt to predict how far a trend will go in a single direction, despite some minor pullbacks that do not break the overall, stronger trend (behavior known as retracements). Trends can be upward or downward and still experience this phenomenon. Fibonacci extensions are estimations of the next high after an initial push and retracement, using Fibonacci sequences as guidelines. Some investors believe that, like many naturally occurring systems in nature, mark... Continue reading...
Stochastic oscillators are a popular momentum indicator used in technical analysis and prized for their accuracy and clarity. They can provide overbought or oversold signals to traders and even be combined with other indicators, like moving averages or the Relative Strength Index (RSI), to unearth insights that support profit-maximizing trades. Stochastics gauge an asset’s closing price in comparison to a range (measured 0-100) of closing prices over a mutable (though most often 14-day) time period, creating overbought (readings of 80-plus) and oversold (readings of 20 or under) trading signals. Continue reading...
Fibonacci lines, retracements, and extensions are used by chartists to identify possible future support and resistance levels, as well as areas where there may be reversals. Investors can use this information to put hedges or speculative bets in place, if they believe that, like many naturally occurring systems in nature, the market behavior will exhibit some fractal-like forms that can be measured with Fibonacci sequence numbers and the Golden Ratio. Continue reading...
A reverse mortgage is basically an annuity paid for with home equity. In a reverse mortgage, instead of paying to for your home, you’re getting paid for your home. It is considered a loan, but it does not have to be repaid, except by the proceeds from selling the home. Older Americans who need the income and aren’t concerned about their heirs getting their house might apply for a reverse mortgage. It is also known as a Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM). Continue reading...
Chart patterns are shapes that sometimes appear in the charts of securities prices. Some of them may prove useful to you. Some frequently discussed chart patterns include Head and Shoulders, Double/Triple Bottom/Top, Cups and Saucers, Flags and Pennants, and others. Generally, it can be useful to compare and connect the troughs to each other and the peaks to each other to see if there is a trend confirmation if the breadth is narrowing, or if a reversal might be imminent. Continue reading...
What does it mean to technically analyze a stock or other security? Technical analysis involves identifying price ranges, trend momentum, and points of possible reversals via graphical representations of the math behind price movements, examining information to the second or third derivative, and using trial-and-error with formulas. Geometry, calculus, physics, and finance all play a part in this methodology. Continue reading...
Trend analysis is an attempt to explain market movements as general directional tendencies of various strength over various time frames. Trend analysis also works to predict future movements based on the probability of a trend continuing. The use of moving averages with support and resistance levels is the most commonly used methodology in trend analysis, and several trading strategies employ these tools in various ways. Trade volume, spreads, news, crossover points, and other market factors are also considered in the discipline. Continue reading...
Elliot Wave Theory incorporates the natural cycles of nature and waves with market movements in an attempt to explain and predict the historical and future prices of stocks. Penned by Ralph Elliott in the early 20th century, the Elliott Wave Theory attempts to organize the seemingly random behavior of the market into cycles. The theory visualizes a series of waves cycles, each representing a different length of time or magnitude of a trend or cycle. Continue reading...
A takeover is an acquisition done through the procurement of enough equity interest to govern a company from the board of directors. Takeovers can be hostile or friendly, and may involve a tender offer from the acquiring company who seeks to buy a large block of shares. Takeover carries a negative connotation, since in peaceful circumstances this is usually called an acquisition. An acquiring corporation will offer to buy enough shares to have a controlling interest in the company in what is called a tender offer. Shareholders of the target company will have a set amount of time to decide whether they would like to take the offer, which is normally to buy the shares at a premium over the market price. Continue reading...
Revenue is a word describing any cash flowing into a business as a result of goods and services rendered. It is sometimes call gross income, and is a representation of income before all expenses. It is notable, though, that revenue only includes receivables in the current period. The Accounts Receivable on the company’ s books may include the entire cost of the goods or services rendered during that period, but the Revenue should generally only reflect the amount that is paid to the company in the current year. Continue reading...
The analysis of convergence and divergence between indexes and other data seeks to find leading indicators where there is confirmation or non-confirmation of trends. Dow Theory was one of the first examples of such thinking. Charles Dow would watch the movements of Industrials and the Rail and compare the uptrend or downtrend of each. Where trends do not line up (e.g., one is trending downward with lower troughs and the other has “higher lows”) there is “divergence”, and non-confirmation of what was thought to be a trend in one index. Continue reading...