Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a frequently used momentum indicator composed of several moving average lines. A MACD line is plotted by using the exponential moving average (EMA) over 12-day periods and subtracting the EMA of 26-day periods. A “signal line” – the 9-day EMA – is then plotted on top of the MACD line. A histogram is also usually included to indicate the divergence between the signal line and the MACD. When the MACD and the signal line cross paths, these points of convergence are widely used as trading indicators that trends are starting or ending. Continue reading...
A moving average ribbon is created by plotting many incremental moving average lines on top of the same price chart. The visual relationship of the moving averages can help reveal crossover points, which traders can use as trade signals. As with other crossover indicators, the shorter-term moving average lines will tend to move more than the longer-term ones, and the degree of momentum that the crossovers imply increases for moving average lines of lengthier look-back periods. Continue reading...
Fibonacci numbers are part of the Fibonacci sequence, where the two previous numbers are added together to calculate the next number in the sequence. The ratio of two Fibonacci numbers is the Golden Ratio, or 1.61803398875, which has been used since ancient times as the perfect proportion in architecture and other design. The Golden Ratio is also known as Phi (pronounced “fee”). Because Fibonacci numbers are found throughout the natural world, they have been integrated into some traders’ strategies for market analysis. Continue reading...
An uptrend is a continuous upward movement in a stock's price. An uptrend is an upward movement over a few increments of time (whatever time increment being used), where the successive numbers being compared continue to increase. The parameters being compared might be just peaks, just troughs, closing prices, or averages, but formally it is defined as increased in successive peaks and troughs both. Continue reading...
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) combines the average directional index (ADX), plus directional indicator (+DI), and minus directional indicator (-DI) into one graph that depicts the strength of positive or negative market forces. By plotting the directional indicators together with the ADX line, traders can get a sense of overall movement and determine a trend’s strength and direction. The DMI is a useful illustration of a key point: the ADX is most useful when combined with other indicators to determine whether it makes sense to trade with a trend. The ADX normally depicts three lines in order to give traders an accurate depiction of both the strength and direction of trends: the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), as well as the ADX lines. The DIs indicate trend direction, while the ADX depicts trend strength. Continue reading...
Chartists are technical traders, theorists, and experts in charting, with the goal of better representing data and using charts to the greatest effect in trading. They attempt to find parameters and algorithms that can offer efficient trading signals and profits, using only the information present on charts – a type of technical analysis. Technical analysis is a discipline that involves identifying price ranges, trend momentum, and points of possible reversals via graphical representations of the math behind price movements, examining information to the second or third derivative, and using trial-and-error with formulas. Geometry, calculus, physics, and finance all play a part in this methodology. Continue reading...
A support line represents an estimation of where a price is likely to stop moving downwards, based on recent data and analysis methods. It is arrived at with different formulas for different indicator methods, but it is generally a line derived from moving averages and standard deviation which represents a lower level at which traders would expect a price to rebound back upwards. Several methods of technical and fundamental analysis plot a support line or two as part of a graphical representation of trends. Theoretically, a price will only deviate so far from its moving average before bouncing back toward the middle. Continue reading...
A resistance line is the inverse of a support line and represents the glass ceiling through which a security price has difficulty breaking through. Resistance lines are calculated as part of analysis methods which use moving averages and standard deviation, or similar calculations, to put a range of probability on the expected movement of a security price, with the resistance line representing the top of that range. Continue reading...
The analysis of convergence and divergence between indexes and other data seeks to find leading indicators where there is confirmation or non-confirmation of trends. Dow Theory was one of the first examples of such thinking. Charles Dow would watch the movements of Industrials and the Rail and compare the uptrend or downtrend of each. Where trends do not line up (e.g., one is trending downward with lower troughs and the other has “higher lows”) there is “divergence”, and non-confirmation of what was thought to be a trend in one index. Continue reading...
The Security Market Line (SML) is a visualization of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and shows the theoretical relationship between risk and return between securities and the entire market. The SML is plotted on a graph bound by an x-axis, which represents Beta (volatility above or below the market average), and a y-axis, which represents the rate of return. Beta is a volatility indicator that measures how many changes in price, and by how much, a security experiences over an amount of time. It describes whether the risk associated with a particular security is above or below the average of the market (or a more specific index), where 1 is a correlation with the market, and numbers above or below describe increased or decreased volatility, respectively. Continue reading...
The Capital Market Line is a complex concept, but put simply, it is a calculation meant to give the investor/analyst a range of potential returns for a portfolio, based on the risk free rate and the standard deviation of the portfolio. The Capital Market Line is a part of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that solves for expected return at various levels of risk. It takes into consideration a portfolio’s risk assets and the risk-free rate. Continue reading...
The attempt to represent events and phenomena mathematically and to thereby make reality more understandable is called quantitative analysis. To quantify something from the real world, an analyst will translate the factors and variables present in a real event into a coding system which will allow it to be represented in mathematical or computational symbology. The quantitative analysis that follows will attempt to create formulas and test them for external validity and replicability. Continue reading...
A Living Will is a document that dictates your wishes in the event you become incapable of making decisions, whether because of illness or injury. The directives in a living will are almost always related to person's desires regarding their medical treatment in those circumstances of incapacitation, in which they are no longer able to express informed consent. What is Probate? Should I Notarize my Will? Continue reading...
Fibonacci Fans are a charting technique that combines traditional Fibonacci lines and Fibonacci channels. They use the Fibonacci levels in a radial way, drawing trendlines from a point of primary importance, such as a low or peak, to identify future points of retracement or extension. Some investors believe that, like many naturally occurring systems in nature, market behavior will exhibit some fractal-like forms that can be measured with Fibonacci sequence numbers and the Golden Ratio. Modern computing power has uncovered plentiful examples of the Golden Ratio in nature, from Nautilus shells to musical harmonics, as well as mathematical fractal patterns. Fibonacci numbers are related to the study of chaos theory, which seeks to find order in complex systems. Since the markets have so many variables, but no lack of data, they are an excellent place to search for Fibonacci patterns. Continue reading...
The Chaikin Oscillator is a volume indicator that can help traders discern if price movements are verified by changes in trading volume. When there are discrepancies, it can mean that prices are exhibiting overbought or oversold conditions. Before the Chaikin Oscillator, On-Balance Volume was the most popular indicator for the job. On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a popular leading indicator introduced in the 1960s by Joe Granville. OBV is a line built using differences between daily trading volume – in Granville’s estimation, the major driver of market behavior – adding the difference on days that the market or stock moves up and subtracting the difference on days when the market or stock moves down. It looks for instances of rising volume that should correlate with price movement, but price movement has not occurred; additionally, OBV can be used to confirm lag. Continue reading...
A living trust describes a trust designed to transfer assets to beneficiaries upon the death of the owner/grantor, which is established during the life of the grantor. They can take several forms, but most common ones are categorized as either revocable or irrevocable. Living trusts have a similar effect to a Last Will and Testament, both being legal documents that stipulate how the decedent would like property to be divided amongst beneficiaries upon the death of the owner or grantor of the trust. Continue reading...
A living will is sometimes called an advance directive or a medical directive, and it specifies a person’s wishes regarding life-prolonging medical procedures and other end-of-life issues. If a person is in a coma, for instance, it is intended to provide instructions for their care, including whether or not to use oxygen or “feeding tubes” to keep them alive. This might require a Do Not Resuscitate (DNR) waiver of some kind, which tells medical staff not to intervene if the person is dying. The living will is different than the “will” that most people are familiar with, which is a Last Will and Testament, stipulating the person’s wishes for their estate after he or she has died. Continue reading...
Overlays are technical supplements which help to interpret the data of a normal price chart. Often a chart program will allow the user to pick a few different overlays at a time, to help him or her get a better idea of what is going on with the price. Some common overlays include moving average lines, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku clouds, and channel lines. An overlay or series of overlays will appear as additional lines, shading, or other graphics on a price chart. An overlay helps a trader or analyst interpret the price data in the context of other data, by putting the other data right on top of it. Continue reading...
Moving averages are important components of many technical indicators. The Endpoint Moving Average (EPMA) is a popular method of plotting a line that uses linear regression instead of averages, which reduces the noise of market price activity and can reveal or follow trends. Compared to a simple moving average, this method hews more closely to data and lags less. A moving average line averages prices in a given time period (such as the 30 days leading up to each day), and plots that point on a chart; when connected, the collection of points becomes the moving average line. Continue reading...
The Advance/Decline Ratio (AD Ratio) is a market breadth indicator, calculated by placing the number of advancing stocks over the number of declining stocks for a day or time period in order to view the direction of the market. It is one way of viewing the daily breadth, or difference in the number of advancing issues and declining issues. The Advance/Decline Ratio uses the same numbers as the Advance/Decline Line but presents them as a ratio instead. The AD Ratio is sometimes more useful than an AD Line, including in instances where comparing AD for different indexes which have different metrics; the ratio is the standardization with which comparisons can be made. Continue reading...