Large Cap mutual funds primarily invest in companies with the highest market capitalizations. Large capitalization mutual funds, also called “large cap funds,” invest primarily in large companies with market capitalization of over $10 billion. Some examples include Microsoft, General Electric, Google, and other well-known companies. Some large cap mutual funds invest in all of the companies in an index (therefore closely following the performance of that index), and some pick and choose which large companies to select in an attempt to outperform the index. For more information about indices, see “What is Index Investing?” Continue reading...
Commodities are more volatile than most assets. The supply-demand dynamics of commodities are continuously changing, and sometimes very rapidly. Different commodities will have different levels of volatility, of course. Some commodities are extremely volatile. For example, natural gas has had a volatility of almost 45% in some periods, and gold has experienced movements of 20-30% per year lately. Crude oil prices fell some 50% in 2015, as a global supply glut was met with weakening demand, particularly from China. Gold is actually on the less-volatile side of the spectrum for commodities. Silver, Nickel, and crude oil tend to be on the upper end of the spectrum along with exotic metals such as platinum and palladium. Continue reading...
Volatility is a measure of the variance, deviation, or movement of a stock. Volatility is all the extra movement of a stock or other security over and above (and below) a line of averages. Put another way, it is a measure of how many changes in price, and by how much, a security experiences over an amount of time. Computations of Standard Deviation and Variance are measures of the degree of volatility which exists in the movement of a stock. Volatility will also be measured relative to a benchmark index, and the degree to which a security adheres or deviates from the benchmark is called Beta. People will also trade on derivatives of the VIX, which is the volatility index of the S&P 500. Continue reading...
The Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) was developed by analyst Perry Kaufman in an attempt to cancel out the noise of market volatility and inefficiency by using an efficiency ratio multiple. Kaufman’s algorithm is a bid to cancel out “noise” in the data used to create a moving average line. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is imperfect in part because of its reliance on historical data – if the data is not current, it tells traders nothing about how an asset may trend in the future. Some traders also believe that EMAs are biased by virtue of weighting recent data more heavily, which can lead to false signals and potential losing trades. Continue reading...
The best day for the markets, in terms of the largest single-day point gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was October 13th, 2008. It happened when the Dow closed up 936 points in response to seemingly positive news about the handling of the ongoing financial crisis. The market would fall much further however before the next uptrend began, on March 9, 2009. In percentage terms, the biggest gain for the Dow came on March 15, 1933, when the index shot up over 15% (8.26 points) in response to Franklin D. Roosevelt's (FDR) Emergency Banking Act. Continue reading...
Fluctuations are represented in terms of volatility, and different types of investments experience different levels of volatility. The answer here depends on which market you’re talking about. Generally speaking, the capital markets in fixed instruments, such as government bonds, are the least volatile. Market fluctuations of the price of commodities, small-cap stocks, and emerging markets are the largest, and can be as high as 30-40% per year. Continue reading...
Stocks are inherently risky, and an investor has risk of capital loss. As with most things in life, no risk yields no return. Theoretically, the greater the risk, the greater the potential return. A new company which has not established itself yet will have a decent chance of crashing and an investor can lose all invested capital. But — what if it takes off? Your potential gains in such a situation are potentially vast. There is a point when the rate of increased return per degree of risk begins to slow down. Continue reading...
VIX is the ticker of the volatility index of the S&P 500. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index projects the volatility of the S&P 500 going forward by creating a composite of the volatility priced-in (implied) on various S&P 500 options. Since it is created using the prices of options, it serves as a gauge of market sentiment, and is often called the "fear gauge" since it will spike when the market plunges. Continue reading...
On May 6, 2010, investors around the world were shocked when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1,000 points in a matter of minutes. The market recovered just as quickly, finishing the day down a much lesser 348 points. The so-termed "flash crash" was caused by a trader's technical errors in entering order amounts, which caused a few stocks to post erroneous numbers (notably Procter & Gamble, which showed a 37% loss, before recovering to a 2% loss on the day). Continue reading...
Beta is a volatility indicator that denotes how closely an investment follows movements in the market as a whole; when examining mutual funds, it indicates how similarly the funds move to their relevant indexes. It is often referenced with its counterpart, Alpha; a risk ratio which measures gains or losses relative to a benchmark, indicating whether an investor is being compensated with a return greater than the volatility risk being taken. Continue reading...
Asset allocation tools and Monte Carlo simulators are available through broker-dealers and online services. You may wish to construct your own asset allocation, but there are asset allocation programs available which can take a lot of the uncertainty out of the process. The most famous method for analyzing and testing an allocation involves the so-called Monte Carlo simulation. This simulator helps you determine what would have happened with your portfolio if you were invested according to a particular mix of assets. Three main parameters you should consider for each asset class are: the asset’s historical performance, its volatility, and its correlation to other asset classes. Continue reading...
A broadening bottom can be characterized as a bullish reversal pattern. It consists of two divergent lines that form a triangle. The movements between the two triangle sides increase as the pattern continues. Each side must be touched at least twice to be validated. The Broadening Bottom pattern is formed when the price of a security progressively makes higher highs (2, 4) and lower lows (1, 3, 5) following two widening trend lines. The price is expected to move up or down past the pattern depending on which line is broken first. What distinguishes a Broadening Bottom from a Broadening Top is that the price of the security is declining prior to entering the pattern formation. Continue reading...
FOREX is an international market which allows participants to exchange various currencies at the current rates of exchange and in the future. Forex trading can be profitable but it can also be risky. The daily volume of FOREX is about 3 trillion dollars, which dwarfs equity trading internationally in terms of daily volume, being somewhere around $30 billion. With so much movement and liquidity, it can also dwarf equity markets in terms of volatility. This can present a large amount of risk if investors are not knowledgeable and prepared to hedge or exit their positions. Nothing should be invested In Forex positions that an investor cannot stand to lose. Continue reading...
The Broadening Bottom pattern forms when a security price makes higher highs (2, 4) and lower lows (1, 3, 5) following two widening trend lines. The price is expected to move up or down past the pattern depending on which line is broken first. What distinguishes a Broadening Bottom from a Broadening Top is that the price of the security is declining prior to entering the pattern formation. This type of formation happens when volatility is high or increasing, and when a security's price is moving with high volatility but or no direction. It potentially indicates growing investor nervousness and a little indecisiveness. Continue reading...
The Broadening Top pattern forms when a security price makes higher highs (1, 3, 5) and lower lows (2, 4) following two widening trend lines. The price is expected to move up or down past the pattern depending on which line is broken first. What distinguishes a Broadening Top from a Broadening Bottom is that the price of the security is rising prior to entering the pattern formation. This type of formation happens when volatility is high or increasing, and when a security’s price is moving with high volatility but little or no direction. It indicates growing investor nervousness and indecisiveness. Continue reading...
Once the price breaks out from the top pattern boundary, day traders and swing traders should trade with an UP trend. Consider buying a security or a call option at the upward breakout price/entry point. To identify an exit, compute the target price by adding the pattern height (H on the chart) to the breakout price. The pattern height is the difference between the pattern’s highest high and its lowest low. Continue reading...
A commodity is usually a raw material or agricultural good which has an extremely high demand and very little price differentiation between competitors. If a good will not increase or decrease significantly in quality regardless of who brings it to market, and the demand is very high (such as for a good used in the production of many other products) it might be considered a commodity. Examples would be oil, silver, gold, steel and wheat, but a full list would be very extensive. Continue reading...
Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s creation in 1896, there have been several crashes and several days of huge gains. The biggest moves can be defined in two ways: either by percentage change or by change in points. In terms of gains, the largest single-day point gain occurred on October 13, 2008, when the Dow rose 936 points (11%) – the sudden leap occurred during a time of wild upside and downside volatility, and was in response to unexpected positive global economic news. Continue reading...
A blue-chip stock generally refers to a publicly traded company that is very well-established and is in the top tier of market capitalization, usually in the tens of billions. There is no formal definition for what makes a company a blue-chip stock, but the general category includes some of the biggest and most household names available to trade. Companies like Johnson & Johnson, Walmart, Visa, Dow Chemical, and so on, that have been around for decades and have market capitalizations in the tens of billions. (click on the link for each company to see their current stock price) Continue reading...
Mutual funds that invest heavily in companies that are small, but not micro-size, can be described as small cap funds. A small capitalization mutual fund primarily invests in small companies. Small companies are usually defined as companies with market capitalization of under $2 billion. The companies in this category are larger than those in the “micro” and “nano” cap categories. A mutual fund investing in small cap companies will generally experience higher price volatility than both mid cap and large cap mutual funds. Over time, small cap companies as a group have tended to outperform the broader market, so the higher risk is associated with higher return. Continue reading...