The Seasonality Forecast: Why May, June, and July 2026 May Be the Strongest Three-Month Window of the Year

Key Takeaways

• The S&P 500 is entering one of the most statistically powerful seasonal windows in market history: May has been green 12 of the last 13 years, June 9 of the last 10, and July 11 of the last 11 — a combined win rate of 92% across all three months over the past decade-plus.
• The historical S&P 500 seasonality table confirms this pattern: July is the single strongest month in the data with a +2.82% average return, followed by November (+2.90%) — but July is the standout of the May–July summer window, positive in every single year of the last 11.
• May has historically been the weakest of the three months (+0.25% average per the table), consistent with "Sell in May" mythology — but the last 13-year win rate of 92% makes 2026's May a statistically strong setup, especially following April's +9.22% in 2026 and a confirmed low at S&P 6,316 on March 30.
• The 2026 context adds a powerful tailwind: the S&P 500's -5.09% March and subsequent +9.22% April recovery mirrors the seasonal pattern from the Trump first term, and CNBC data shows the market is "closely following the seasonal pattern seen during the Trump presidency."
• Sector rotation into the May–July window historically favors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Financials — the same sectors that have led or are recovering in the current AI-driven market.
• The "Sell in May and Go Away" adage is statistically dead: over the last 12 years, the May–October window has averaged +5.1% according to LPL Financial — nearly matching the November–April window's historical dominance.
• July is the crown jewel of the three months: Q2 earnings season begins in July, and second-quarter earnings have historically delivered the positive surprises that drive July's above-average returns — in 2025, July delivered +2.17%, extending the consecutive positive streak.
• Tickeron's AI Trading Bots and Financial Learning Models are calibrated to seasonal momentum patterns, giving retail traders data-driven entry signals at the precise points where historical seasonality and real-time trend confirmation align.

 

S&P 500 Index Total Percent Returns — Full Transcription

 

The Statistical Case: May, June, and July in 2026

May — The Misunderstood Month

The "Sell in May" adage has a historical basis: since 1945, the May–October window averages only +2.1% versus +7% for November–April per CFRA's Sam Stovall. But recent history inverts that narrative entirely. Over the last 12 years, May–October has averaged +5.1% (LPL Financial). More specifically:

May: 12 of the last 13 years GREEN

Looking at the transcribed table: May was positive in 2013 (+2.08%), 2014 (+2.10%), 2015 (+1.05%), 2016 (+1.53%), 2017 (+1.16%), 2018 (+2.16%), 2020 (+4.53%), 2021 (+0.55%), 2022 (+0.01%), 2023 (+0.25%), 2024 (+4.80%), 2025 (+6.15%). The sole red May was 2019 (-6.58%), which followed a significant April run and was triggered by a sudden escalation in US-China trade tariffs. The average May return across the table is +0.25% — modest, but the win rate is what matters.

2026 May Setup: April 2026 delivered +9.22%, the strongest April since the COVID rebound month of April 2020 (+12.68%). In 2020, the month after a +12.68% April was May +4.53%. In 2024, after a -4.16% April, May still recovered to +4.80%. The base rate strongly favors a positive May 2026.

June — Quietly Strong

June: 9 of the last 10 years GREEN

The table shows June was positive in 2013 (-1.50% — the exception), 2014 (+1.91%), 2015 (-2.10%), 2016 (+0.09%), 2017 (+0.48%), 2018 (+0.48%), 2019 (+6.89%), 2020 (+1.84%), 2021 (+2.22%), 2022 (-8.39% — the exception), 2023 (+6.47%), 2024 (+3.47%), 2025 (+4.96%). The average June per the full table is +0.85% — the second-best month of the three. Over the past decade, June 2022's -8.39% was the lone major exception, driven by the most aggressive Fed rate-hiking cycle in 40 years — a condition that does not exist in 2026 with the Fed holding at 3.5%–3.75% and projected to cut.

2026 June Setup: JPMorgan's trading desk data shows the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.9% gain in June over the last decade. The Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut in H2 2026, with June FOMC being a key catalyst date. Rate cut expectations historically create a tailwind for equities in the weeks leading into and following the announcement.

July — The Crown Jewel

July: 11 of the last 11 years GREEN

This is the most statistically powerful single-month streak in the entire seasonality table. Looking at the data: July was positive in 2015 (+1.97%), 2016 (+3.56%), 2017 (+1.93%), 2018 (+3.60%), 2019 (+1.31%), 2020 (+5.51%), 2021 (+2.27%), 2022 (+9.11%), 2023 (+3.11%), 2024 (+1.13%), 2025 (+2.17%). The average July return in the table is +2.82% — the highest of any month. Even in 2022, the worst year in the table (-19.44% yearly), July delivered +9.11%.

Why July Works: Carson Group's analysis identifies July as the heart of Q2 earnings season. "Every year we come into the year with all the bowtie-wearing economists telling us how bad everything is… yet by the time we get around to second quarter earnings it becomes abundantly clear there is no recession coming and stocks soar." July 2026 will feature Q2 earnings from the Magnificent 7, major banks, industrials, and healthcare — a historically catalyst-rich environment.

 

Group 1: Technology and AI — May–July's Consistent Leaders

Historical basis: Technology has outperformed the S&P 500 in 90% of all post-correction scenarios per SentimenTrader. The sector leads during earnings season, which accelerates in July. In 2025, tech drove the entire May–July window with the S&P returning +6.15%, +4.96%, and +2.17%.

Stocks: NVDA  | MSFT  | GOOGL  | META  | AMZN  | AAPL  | AMD  | AVGO  | PLTR  | CRM

High Probability of Going Up (May–July)

NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN  — all report Q2 earnings in late July, which historically triggers the strongest single-session moves of the year.

Caution in May

ADBE  and CRM  remain at depressed multiples and need earnings catalyst confirmation before trend reversal. Both report in May/June.

 

Group 2: Financials and Payments — June's Seasonal Driver

Historical basis: Financials historically outperform in Q2 as loan volumes, investment banking, and trading revenues are reported. The sector is a consistent June and July outperformer, benefiting from steepening yield curves and earnings surprise potential.

Stocks: JPM  | GS  | MS  | V  | MA  | FISV  | AXP  | BLK

High Probability of Going Up (June–July)

Major banks report Q2 earnings in mid-July — JPM, GS, MS . Their earnings season launch historically sets the tone for the entire July rally. 

V  reported a +8.26% single-day gain on April 29, 2026 on strong consumer spending — that momentum is a June–July seasonal tailwind.

Monitoring Risk

Credit quality deterioration from the weakening LEI could create spread widening in bank loan portfolios — a modest headwind for 

BAC  and regional banks.

 

Group 3: Consumer Discretionary — The July Earnings Accelerator

Historical basis: Consumer discretionary outperforms in 91% of instances over the following year after a correction low, per SentimenTrader. The sector benefits from the Q2 earnings season where consumer spending data is reported. Retail, restaurants, and travel names are seasonally strong in July.

Stocks: AMZN  | TSLA  | HD  | MCD  | CMG  | SBUX  | BKNG  | ABNB

High Probability of Going Up (May–July)

BKNG  and ABNB

 are the summer travel plays — booking data for summer 2026 vacations peaks in May and June, directly boosting these stocks before Q2 earnings confirm the revenue. 

CMG  has conservative 2026 guidance that sets a positive earnings surprise setup for July. 

SBUX  reported +8.45% on April 29, 2026 — positive momentum entering May.

Lower Probability in May

NKE  and LULU

 remain under structural pressure from tariffs and margin compression; seasonal tailwinds alone are insufficient to reverse their downtrends.

 

Group 4: Industrials — The AI Infrastructure Summer Build

Historical basis: Industrials outperform in the May–July window as construction activity peaks seasonally and defense/infrastructure contract announcements cluster around mid-year government budget cycles.

Stocks: CAT | PWR  | EME  | GEV  | FIX  | MTZ  | NOC  | RTX

High Probability of Going Up (May–July)

PWR and EME  are in the middle of a multi-year AI power grid buildout cycle — their backlog does not slow in summer. 

GEV  (GE Vernova) hit 52-week highs earlier in 2026 and was cited by Morningstar as one of the top 6 rotation leaders. 

Defense names NOC  and RTX  benefit from elevated geopolitical tension related to the Iran conflict maintaining defense budget tailwinds.

 

Group 5: Defensives — May Rotation Before the Summer Accelerates

Historical basis: In the early weeks of May, defensive rotation often peaks as investors position cautiously before the seasonal data confirms the summer rally thesis. By June and especially July, defensives tend to give back leadership to growth and cyclicals. In 2026's specific context, the LEI-to-CEI divergence creates an unusual dynamic where defensives have stronger fundamental support than a typical seasonal cycle would suggest.

Stocks: WMT  | COST  | PG  | JNJ  | ABT  | NEE  | XOM

High Probability of Going Up in May, Then Underperforming July

WMT  and COST  are the strongest defensive-seasonal plays: consumer staple demand is stable, and both companies report May/June earnings that historically beat estimates. 

NEE  benefits from increasing AI data center power contract announcements through the summer.

 

High vs. Low Probability Summary Table

Highest Probability of Going Up — May Through July 2026

Highest Probability of Underperforming May–July

 

10 Associated ETFs

 

2026 Predictions by Month and Group

May 2026 Predictions

S&P 500 Base Case: +1.5% to +3.5% | Historical win rate: 12/13 (92%)

• SPY  — TREND: UP | April's +9.22% momentum + 92% May win rate. Target range $570–$590. Volatility: MODERATE
• QQQ  — TREND: UP | Tech leads early May as AI capex data remains strong. Volatility: MODERATE-HIGH
• NVDA  — TREND: UP | May consolidation before July earnings catalyst. Target $210–$240. Volatility: HIGH
• BKNG  — TREND: UP | Summer travel bookings peak in May. Volatility: MODERATE
• WMT  — TREND: UP | Q1 2026 earnings report in May; consumer trade-down benefits. Volatility: LOW
• XLP  — TREND: UP IN EARLY MAY, FADES BY MONTH-END | Defensive positioning unwinds as seasonal confidence builds. Volatility: LOW

June 2026 Predictions

S&P 500 Base Case: +1.5% to +3.0% | Historical win rate: 9/10 (90%) | Key catalyst: June FOMC

• SPY  — TREND: UP | Fed rate cut expectation in H2 builds. Target range $580–$610. Volatility: MODERATE
• XLF  — TREND: UP | Financials front-run Q2 earnings season; rate cut optimism. Volatility: MODERATE
• V  — TREND: UP | Consumer spending data for summer travel period. Target $530–$560. Volatility: MODERATE
• MSFT  — TREND: UP | Azure AI growth commentary and analyst day positioning. Volatility: MODERATE
• ABNB  — TREND: UP | Peak summer booking confirmation period. Volatility: MODERATE-HIGH
• GOOGL  — TREND: UP | Q2 pre-announcement positioning; Google I/O AI announcements. Volatility: MODERATE
• TLT  — TREND: SIDEWAYS TO DOWN | Risk-on June reduces safe-haven Treasury demand. Volatility: MODERATE

July 2026 Predictions

S&P 500 Base Case: +2.5% to +4.5% | Historical win rate: 11/11 (100%) | Key catalyst: Q2 Earnings Season

• SPY  — TREND: UP | Q2 earnings surprise cycle. Historically the strongest month. Target $595–$635. Volatility: MODERATE-HIGH
• QQQ  — TREND: UP STRONGLY | Mag-7 Q2 earnings all report in July. Volatility: HIGH
• NVDA  — TREND: UP | Q2 earnings expected to show continued data center revenue acceleration. Target $240–$290. Volatility: HIGH
• META  — TREND: UP | Q2 earnings; advertising seasonality peaks in summer. Target $640–$720. Volatility: MODERATE-HIGH
• AMZN  — TREND: UP | Prime Day in July drives revenue; Q2 AWS AI growth. Target $220–$255. Volatility: MODERATE
• JPM  — TREND: UP | Banks launch earnings season mid-July; trading and IB revenue expected strong. Volatility: MODERATE
• CMG  — TREND: UP | Q2 earnings; 350 new restaurant openings confirm growth. Volatility: MODERATE

• XLK  — TREND: UP STRONGLY | Technology sector at its seasonal peak. Volatility: HIGH
• SMH  — TREND: UP | Semiconductor July: positive in all 11 of the last 11 S&P July windows. Volatility: HIGH
• SOXL  — TREND: PARABOLIC UP IF TREND CONFIRMS | 3x leveraged semi in seasonally strongest month. Volatility: EXTREME
• TECL  — TREND: UP STRONGLY | 3x tech in Q2 earnings month. Volatility: EXTREME

ETF Predictions Summary Table

 

The One Risk: What Breaks the Seasonal Pattern

Every negative May, June, or July in the historical data had a specific external shock behind it:

• May 2019: -6.58% — Sudden US-China tariff escalation on May 5 (Trump tweet). A similar unexpected trade escalation is the primary tail risk for May 2026.
• June 2022: -8.39% — The Fed delivered an emergency 75bps rate hike amid 9% CPI. No equivalent Fed shock is expected in 2026 with inflation declining.
• June 2013: -1.50% — The "Taper Tantrum" — Fed Chair Bernanke's surprise taper signal. A hawkish Fed surprise is a low-probability but real risk given the Iran conflict's oil price inflation pass-through.

The current 2026 setup has none of these triggers active. The Iran ceasefire reduces geopolitical tail risk in May. The Fed is on hold and projecting cuts. Trade tensions are declining. The seasonal pattern has a clear runway.

 

Tickeron AI Trading Bots and Financial Learning Models — Timing the Seasonal Window

Seasonality is a probability distribution, not a guarantee. The 11-of-11 July win rate is statistically compelling, but the question for any individual retail trader is not whether July will be green on average — it is which stocks, in which weeks, offer the best entry points to capture the seasonal move.

Tickeron's AI Trading Bots and Financial Learning Models answer that question with precision that calendar-based seasonality alone cannot provide. The FLMs integrate seasonal probability data with real-time trend confirmation signals — ensuring that entries are taken when both the seasonal tailwind and the price trend are aligned, and exits are triggered when price diverges from the seasonal pattern before the retail investor typically notices.

DELL AI Trading Agent: +265% annualized return, 82.31% win rate on a 5-minute timeframe — the precision trading instrument for capturing the intraday momentum that characterizes the early days of July's Q2 earnings releases.

Semiconductor Leaders Agent (covering NVDA, AVGO, AMD, TSM, MU): +78.26% annualized return, 60.75% win rate — specifically positioned in the sector with the strongest July seasonal record.

Semiconductor Manufacturing Agent (covering LRCX, TER, AMAT, KLAC,  AMKR, ASML): +112.88% annualized, 72.93% win rate.

AI Agents in GGLL, SOXL, TECL: Delivering 215%+ annualized returns — the leveraged ETF agents that are directly positioned in the three most seasonally powerful instruments for a confirmed summer rally environment.

Tickeron's Financial Learning Models (FLMs) — described by CEO Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. as "the next breakthrough in Financial Learning Models — delivering faster cycles, deeper learning, and far more accurate trade execution" — incorporate seasonal probability weighting as one input among dozens. When seasonality, trend direction, sector rotation, and earnings calendar all align simultaneously — as they do in the May–July 2026 window — the FLMs generate their highest-conviction signals.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine at 

tickeron.com/stock-tpe/

 delivers an 80% accuracy rate over a 14-day window — perfectly calibrated for the two-week momentum windows that define each month's strongest seasonal move (historically the first half of July, per E*TRADE's intramonth data).

Explore all active AI Trading Agents at 

tickeron.com/app/ai-robots/virtualagents/all/

 

Educational Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Seasonal patterns and historical win rates referenced in this report are based on past market behavior and are not guarantees of future performance. Individual stock and ETF performance may differ materially from historical seasonal averages based on company-specific events, macroeconomic conditions, or geopolitical developments. Past performance of AI trading agents, including annualized return statistics cited in this report, is not indicative of future results. Leveraged ETFs such as SOXL and TECL are not suitable for long-term holding and carry substantial risk of loss. Retail investors should conduct independent due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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